Sandro Santana

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 22 LHP 5'10" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #827MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKARI	8	1	19	7.11	5.21	22.6%	15.5%	—	K 15.4% · BB 19.3% · FIP 7.39
2025	20	MIX2 levels	26	0	59	2.73	3.27	24.3%	12.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 15.6% · FIP 4.48
2026	21	MIX3 levels	46	0	64	1.97	1.96	39.6%	11.8%	—	K 31.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 2.79
2027PROJ	22	MLBSTL	86	0	90	4.12	4.12	29.9%	13.3%	0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSTL	44	0	46	3.91	3.83	29.8%	11.8%	0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSTL	64	0	67	3.80	3.71	29.8%	10.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Ext$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control45Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsJimmy Burnette (age 23) · Hayden Harris (age 24) · Quintin Torres-Costa (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.12

FIP4.12

K%29.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%16.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5060

CTRL—45

CMD3545

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	10	3	29	133	36	17	0	30%	2.9	18.4%	16.0%	2.4%	0.0%	4.71	3.57	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	10	3	29	133	36	17	0	30%	2.9	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	0.0%	4.71	2.37	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	15.4%	19.3%	-4.0%	5.7%	7.11	7.39	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	15.4%	19.3%	-4.0%	5.7%	7.11	7.39	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	8	1	19	84	19	13	3	12%	2.4	22.6%	15.5%	7.1%	3.6%	7.11	5.21	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	16.4%	15.6%	0.8%	1.4%	2.73	4.48	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	16.4%	15.6%	0.8%	1.4%	2.73	4.48	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	59	251	61	31	3	0%	2.3	24.3%	12.4%	12.0%	1.2%	2.73	3.27	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	64	255	101	30	3	0%	1.4	31.7%	11.3%	20.3%	1.7%	1.97	2.79	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	64	255	101	30	3	0%	1.4	31.7%	11.3%	20.3%	1.7%	1.97	2.79	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	64	255	101	30	3	0%	1.4	39.6%	11.8%	27.8%	1.2%	1.97	1.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	STL	86	0	90	380	113	51	10	0%	1.0	29.9%	13.3%	16.6%	2.7%	4.12	4.12	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	89	0	93	394	118	46	11	0%	1.0	29.8%	11.8%	18.1%	2.7%	4.01	3.93	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	91	0	96	404	121	44	11	0%	1.1	29.8%	10.9%	19.0%	2.7%	3.90	3.81	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	92	0	97	409	122	42	11	0%	1.1	29.8%	10.3%	19.5%	2.7%	3.81	3.74	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	92	0	97	409	122	42	11	0%	1.1	29.8%	10.2%	19.6%	2.7%	3.76	3.73	+1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	91	0	95	403	120	41	11	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.3%	19.6%	2.7%	3.76	3.76	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	STL	88	0	92	391	116	41	11	0%	1.1	29.7%	10.4%	19.3%	2.8%	3.81	3.85	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	STL	84	0	88	373	110	40	11	0%	1.1	29.5%	10.7%	18.8%	3.0%	3.91	3.98	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	STL	79	0	83	350	102	38	11	0%	1.1	29.1%	10.9%	18.2%	3.2%	4.06	4.16	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	44	0	46	194	58	23	5	0%	1.0	29.8%	11.8%	18.1%	2.5%	3.91	3.83	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	64	0	67	283	84	31	7	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.9%	19.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.71	+0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	75	0	79	334	99	34	8	0%	1.1	29.8%	10.3%	19.5%	2.5%	3.71	3.64	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	81	0	85	359	107	37	9	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.2%	19.6%	2.5%	3.66	3.63	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	82	0	86	363	108	37	9	0%	1.0	29.8%	10.3%	19.6%	2.5%	3.65	3.65	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	STL	81	0	85	359	107	37	9	0%	1.0	29.7%	10.4%	19.3%	2.6%	3.70	3.74	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	STL	78	0	82	346	102	37	10	0%	1.1	29.5%	10.7%	18.8%	2.8%	3.80	3.87	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	STL	74	0	78	329	96	36	10	0%	1.1	29.1%	10.9%	18.2%	3.0%	3.94	4.04	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		579	0	608	2566	761	272	67	0%	1.0	29.7%	10.6%	19.1%	2.6%	3.76	3.37	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	250	90	22	0%	1.1	29.7%	10.6%	19.1%	2.6%	3.76	3.37	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		90	4	171	723	159	106	13	4%	1.9	22.0%	14.6%	7.4%	1.8%	3.26	4.05	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	5	200	846	186	123	15	4%	1.9	22.0%	14.6%	7.4%	1.8%	3.26	4.05	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandro Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	29.9%	13.3%	2.7%	—	3.83	29.8%	18.9%	286	-0.29	—	—	—
Jimmy Burnette L 2022 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	29.8%	15.2%	2.0%	.297	3.82	22.1%	6.7%	101	+0.23	3.00	158	85
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.30	29.4%	17.2%	145	+0.19	1.77	196	81
Quintin Torres-Costa L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	25.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.340	2.51	24.8%	12.9%	55	-1.45	2.51	248	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	80
Héctor Santiago L 2012 · 4.30 FIP	24	SU	4.30	25.8%	12.7%	3.2%	.247	4.22	20.6%	11.2%	457	-0.08	4.07	1,059	78
Andrew Sisco L 2005 · 3.61 FIP	22	SU	3.61	23.1%	11.6%	1.8%	.297	4.71	18.5%	5.8%	72	+1.10	3.61	148	77
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	77
Danny Wilkinson L 2023 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	31.0%	20.1%	1.5%	.327	4.29	25.5%	4.8%	44	+0.42	3.87	101	77
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	76
Justin Storm L 2024 · 3.14 FIP	22	SU	3.14	26.5%	14.9%	0.7%	.267	4.29	17.6%	1.9%	118	+1.15	3.14	167	76
Liam Norris L 2023 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	30.0%	16.8%	2.3%	.296	8.57	23.3%	-13.8%	27	+4.59	3.98	184	76
Garrett Cleavinger L 2016 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	24.5%	11.8%	2.0%	.314	3.74	24.0%	9.2%	106	+0.12	2.92	424	76
Taylor Tankersley L 2006 · 3.65 FIP	23	SU	3.65	25.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.271	4.62	21.6%	9.8%	65	+0.97	3.65	118	76
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	75
Jakob Hernandez L 2018 · 2.99 FIP	22	SU	2.99	23.9%	12.0%	0.7%	.345	3.40	23.3%	13.1%	123	+0.41	2.99	266	75
Ronny Agustin L 2017 · 3.11 FIP	22	SU	3.11	27.5%	14.3%	0.9%	.286	4.52	14.6%	-3.9%	46	+1.41	3.11	158	74
Nate Lavender L 2022 · 3.17 FIP	22	SU	3.17	25.5%	14.6%	0.7%	.292	4.01	30.2%	20.3%	44	+0.84	2.48	146	74
Ben Harris L 2022 · 3.06 FIP	22	SU	3.06	33.9%	18.2%	1.0%	.326	5.08	23.8%	3.1%	128	+2.02	3.06	183	74
Tim Collins L 2012 · 3.16 FIP	22	SU	3.16	31.5%	8.8%	2.9%	.280	3.76	20.7%	8.9%	74	+0.60	3.16	297	74
Trey Cumbie L 2019 · 3.44 FIP	23	SU	3.44	22.5%	12.6%	1.2%	.318	4.78	24.4%	8.7%	91	+1.34	3.44	152	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	92	29.7%	11.0%	1.08	3.90
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76
Frank Lange ('10-'13, 4 WAR*)	2.5	125	26.5%*	11.1%*	1.30*	4.20*
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Duster Mails ('15-'26, 4 WAR*)	2.6	129	26.5%*	10.4%*	1.24*	4.23*
Sam Jones ('51-'64, 20 WAR*)	8.2	183	29.1%*	11.5%*	0.96*	3.94*
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79