James Tallon

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 23 LHP A

Overview

APROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	APHI	26	30	7.80	3.97	25.3%	19.9%	—	K 18.8% · BB 23.4% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	23	MLBPHI	50	52	5.85	5.85	20.4%	20.0%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBPHI	22	23	5.50	5.36	21.3%	16.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBPHI	34	36	5.20	5.05	21.8%	14.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDillon Larsen (age 24) · Gil Luna (age 24) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%20.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—40

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	26	0	30	146	37	29	1	0%	1.2	18.8%	23.4%	-4.7%	0.9%	7.80	4.97	—
2026	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	26	0	30	146	37	29	1	0%	1.2	18.8%	23.4%	-4.7%	0.9%	7.80	4.97	—
2026	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	26	0	30	146	37	29	1	0%	1.2	25.3%	19.9%	5.5%	0.7%	7.80	3.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PHI	50	0	52	220	45	44	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	20.0%	0.4%	2.8%	5.85	5.85	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	51	0	54	227	48	38	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	16.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.50	5.36	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	52	0	54	230	50	34	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.7%	7.1%	2.8%	5.20	5.05	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	22	0	23	97	21	16	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	16.8%	4.5%	2.8%	5.50	5.36	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	34	0	36	152	33	22	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.7%	7.1%	2.8%	5.20	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	54	39	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.5%	6.1%	2.8%	5.32	4.79	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	132	24	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.5%	6.1%	2.8%	5.32	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		26	0	30	146	27	34	1	0%	1.2	18.8%	23.4%	-4.7%	0.9%	7.80	4.97	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	0	200	973	183	228	9	0%	1.2	18.8%	23.4%	-4.7%	0.9%	7.80	4.97	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Tallon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	20.4%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.20	21.6%	5.8%	108	-0.65	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	90
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	89
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	87
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	86
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	85
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	84
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	84
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	84
Ben Harris L 2023 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	25.4%	21.9%	1.9%	.252	5.29	22.7%	2.9%	76	+0.53	3.06	183	83
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	82
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	81
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	81
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	81
Eric Torres L 2023 · 6.58 FIP	23	SU	6.58	21.7%	19.8%	5.1%	.283	4.18	26.5%	10.4%	56	-2.40	2.81	155	81
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	81
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	80
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	80
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	80
Jordan Norberto L 2010 · 6.32 FIP	23	SU	6.32	16.0%	22.3%	3.2%	.236	3.89	21.7%	12.3%	52	-2.43	3.89	117	80
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	21.2%	17.1%	1.09	5.51
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*