Josh Blum
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%21.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 51 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 3.41 | 4.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 51 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 1.2% | 3.41 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 13 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 6.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 39 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 54 | 239 | 46 | 31 | 6 | — | — | 19.2% | 12.8% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 4.86 | 3.35 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 79 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 1 | 71 | 316 | 48 | 38 | 6 | 2% | 1.5 | 15.3% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 4.47 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 3 | 200 | 890 | 136 | 108 | 18 | 2% | 1.5 | 15.3% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Blum (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.31 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 42 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 95 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 94 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 91 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 91 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 90 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 90 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 90 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 90 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 90 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 89 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.36 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .316 | 4.77 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.41 | 3.36 | 137 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 89 |
| Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 89 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.50 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.98 | 2.65 | 304 | 89 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 88 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .316 | 2.79 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 41 | -0.96 | 2.79 | 144 | 88 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 41 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 1.09 | 4.38 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |