Micah Ashman — OGILVIE

Micah Ashman P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 23 LHP 6'7" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8392vR 100

ERA3.50

FIP3.50

K%25.8%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%19.1%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	6	25	9	2	1	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.0%	28.0%	4.0%	4.26	3.27	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	6	25	9	2	1	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.0%	28.0%	4.0%	4.26	3.27	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	6	25	9	2	1	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.0%	28.0%	4.0%	4.26	3.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	221	73	12	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	0.0%	2.35	1.69	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	221	73	12	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	0.0%	2.35	1.69	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	221	73	12	0	0%	1.3	33.0%	5.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.35	1.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	37	1	51	210	82	15	3	3%	1.4	31.8%	7.5%	24.4%	1.7%	1.75	2.32	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	37	1	51	210	82	15	3	3%	1.4	31.8%	7.5%	24.4%	1.7%	1.75	2.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2026	23	AA RAW	BAL	36	1	50	206	81	14	3	3%	1.4	39.3%	6.8%	32.5%	1.5%	1.79	1.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	50	0	53	223	58	15	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	6.7%	19.4%	2.5%	3.53	3.49	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	51	0	54	226	59	15	6	0%	1.1	26.3%	6.8%	19.5%	2.5%	3.53	3.50	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	51	0	54	226	60	16	6	0%	1.1	26.3%	6.9%	19.5%	2.5%	3.54	3.52	+0.7
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	22	0	23	97	25	7	3	0%	1.0	26.1%	6.7%	19.4%	2.6%	3.59	3.55	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	34	0	36	152	40	10	4	0%	1.1	26.3%	6.8%	19.5%	2.6%	3.59	3.56	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	41	0	43	182	48	12	5	0%	1.0	26.3%	6.9%	19.5%	2.6%	3.60	3.58	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	0	102	429	113	29	11	0%	1.0	26.2%	6.8%	19.5%	2.6%	3.60	3.18	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	222	57	22	0%	1.1	26.2%	6.8%	19.5%	2.6%	3.60	3.18	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		85	1	115	456	133	31	5	1%	1.4	29.2%	6.9%	22.4%	1.0%	2.19	2.06	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	2	200	793	232	54	8	1%	1.4	29.2%	6.9%	22.4%	1.0%	2.19	2.06	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Micah Ashman (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.50	25.8%	6.7%	2.5%	—	3.50	26.2%	19.4%	160	+0.00	—	—	—
Reagan Todd L 2019 · 2.89 FIP	23	SU	2.89	26.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.286	4.21	26.1%	15.5%	90	+1.32	2.89	122	88
Trey Jeans L 2019 · 2.74 FIP	23	SU	2.74	23.9%	6.6%	1.5%	.345	5.15	22.7%	7.8%	88	+2.41	2.74	111	87
Hunter Schryver L 2018 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	23.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.259	4.22	19.9%	7.5%	106	+0.64	3.58	206	87
Michael Sansone L 2023 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	24.2%	5.2%	3.2%	.338	4.71	16.4%	10.0%	263	+1.23	3.15	291	86
Zac Curtis L 2015 · 2.48 FIP	23	SU	2.48	26.9%	6.9%	1.4%	.265	4.02	23.3%	10.4%	152	+1.54	2.48	236	86
Logan Salow L 2018 · 2.78 FIP	23	SU	2.78	22.9%	7.3%	1.3%	.331	3.83	24.9%	7.0%	103	+1.05	2.78	148	85
Carson Skipper L 2023 · 3.02 FIP	23	SU	3.02	22.5%	5.5%	2.1%	.385	3.76	21.0%	12.3%	136	+0.74	3.02	186	83
Drew Sommers L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SU	3.11	25.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.400	2.76	25.8%	17.2%	173	-0.35	2.54	216	83
Travis Bergen L 2018 · 2.48 FIP	24	SU	2.48	25.4%	7.3%	1.1%	.286	4.44	23.4%	11.1%	62	+1.96	2.48	143	82
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	82
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	81
Alex Vesia L 2019 · 2.62 FIP	23	SU	2.62	29.2%	8.5%	1.7%	.293	2.68	34.2%	23.4%	94	+0.06	1.91	401	81
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	80
Keith Hessler L 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.0%	5.6%	2.9%	.275	4.41	18.3%	6.9%	156	+0.93	3.31	228	80
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	79
Nate Lavender L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	29.1%	9.9%	4.0%	.281	2.51	32.6%	25.7%	47	-1.59	2.51	139	79
Sam Moll L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	23	SU	4.33	21.8%	6.9%	4.0%	.240	3.78	17.1%	8.9%	120	-0.55	2.38	507	78
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	78
Kyle Nelson L 2019 · 4.00 FIP	23	SU	4.00	27.8%	8.4%	4.0%	.241	3.38	20.8%	8.1%	63	-0.62	0.90	214	77
Wyatt Short L 2018 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.262	4.01	20.5%	10.3%	91	+0.18	2.74	288	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	26.1%	6.8%	0.97	3.53
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36