Micah Ashman

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 LHP 6'7" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#419ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ADET	5	0	6	4.26	3.26	36.0%	8.0%	—	K 36.0% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.27
2025	22	MIX2 levels	43	0	57	2.35	1.18	33.0%	5.4%	—	K 25.9% · BB 6.1% · FIP 1.69
2026	23	MIX2 levels	37	1	51	1.75	1.54	39.0%	7.1%	—	K 31.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 2.32
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	2	0	2	3.16	3.16	31.0%	7.3%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	25	MLBBAL	25	0	26	3.30	3.27	30.5%	7.2%	0.4
2029PROJ52% MLB	26	MLBBAL	39	0	41	3.35	3.33	30.1%	7.2%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 3.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsAlex Vesia (age 23) · Phillip Diehl (age 24) · Andrew Misiaszek (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7785vR 93

ERA3.16

FIP3.16

K%31.0%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%23.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	6	25	9	2	1	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.0%	28.0%	4.0%	4.26	3.27	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	6	25	9	2	1	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.0%	28.0%	4.0%	4.26	3.27	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	0	6	25	9	2	1	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.0%	28.0%	4.0%	4.26	3.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	221	73	12	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	0.0%	2.35	1.69	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	221	73	12	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	6.1%	19.8%	0.0%	2.35	1.69	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	221	73	12	0	0%	1.3	33.0%	5.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.35	1.18	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	51	210	82	15	3	3%	1.4	31.8%	7.5%	24.4%	1.7%	1.75	2.32	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	51	210	82	15	3	3%	1.4	31.8%	7.5%	24.4%	1.7%	1.75	2.32	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	51	210	82	15	3	3%	1.4	39.0%	7.1%	31.9%	1.4%	1.75	1.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	2	0	2	8	3	1	0	0%	1.0	31.0%	7.3%	23.8%	2.5%	3.16	3.16	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	349	107	25	9	0%	1.0	30.5%	7.2%	23.4%	2.6%	3.24	3.21	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	76	0	80	337	101	24	9	0%	1.0	30.1%	7.2%	22.9%	2.6%	3.29	3.27	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	73	0	77	325	96	24	9	0%	1.1	29.7%	7.3%	22.4%	2.7%	3.35	3.35	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	70	0	74	310	91	23	9	0%	1.1	29.3%	7.4%	21.9%	2.8%	3.43	3.46	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	66	0	69	291	85	22	8	0%	1.0	29.1%	7.7%	21.5%	2.9%	3.53	3.59	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	284	87	20	9	0%	1.1	30.8%	7.2%	23.6%	3.1%	3.51	3.50	+0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	BAL	58	0	61	256	78	19	9	0%	1.0	30.4%	7.5%	22.8%	3.3%	3.62	3.70	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	BAL	51	0	54	226	68	18	8	0%	1.0	29.9%	7.9%	22.0%	3.6%	3.80	3.93	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	25	0	26	110	34	8	3	0%	1.0	30.5%	7.2%	23.4%	2.7%	3.30	3.27	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	39	0	41	173	52	12	5	0%	1.1	30.1%	7.2%	22.9%	2.7%	3.35	3.33	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	47	0	49	207	61	15	6	0%	1.0	29.7%	7.3%	22.4%	2.8%	3.42	3.42	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	66	17	6	0%	1.1	29.3%	7.4%	21.9%	2.9%	3.50	3.53	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	65	17	7	0%	1.1	29.1%	7.7%	21.5%	3.0%	3.60	3.66	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	52	0	55	232	71	17	8	0%	1.1	30.8%	7.2%	23.6%	3.3%	3.59	3.58	+0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	BAL	49	0	51	215	65	16	8	0%	1.0	30.4%	7.5%	22.8%	3.5%	3.70	3.78	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	BAL	44	0	46	194	58	15	7	0%	1.0	29.9%	7.9%	22.0%	3.8%	3.89	4.02	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		357	0	375	1585	474	118	49	0%	1.1	29.9%	7.4%	22.5%	3.1%	3.56	3.22	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	253	63	26	0%	1.1	29.9%	7.4%	22.5%	3.1%	3.56	3.22	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		85	1	115	456	133	31	5	1%	1.4	29.2%	6.9%	22.4%	1.0%	2.19	2.06	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	2	200	793	232	54	8	1%	1.4	29.2%	6.9%	22.4%	1.0%	2.19	2.06	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 50 IPFIP 1.44 → 2.32 (+0.88)K% 39.3% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.32%	—	×0.810	31.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×1.100	7.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.44 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 39 IPFIP 1.09 → 1.78 (+0.69)K% 30.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.87%	—	×0.770	23.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.70%	—	×1.150	5.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.850	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.09 → 1.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 18 IPFIP 0.81 → 1.50 (+0.69)K% 37.5% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.810	30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.94%	—	×1.100	7.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.248	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.81 → 1.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 6 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.64 (+1.37)K% 36.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.740	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.099	×1.300	4.73%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Micah Ashman (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	3.28	30.1%	22.9%	239	+0.12	—	—	—
Alex Vesia L 2019 · 2.62 FIP	23	SU	2.62	29.2%	8.5%	1.7%	.293	2.68	34.2%	23.4%	94	+0.06	1.91	408	81
Phillip Diehl L 2018 · 2.57 FIP	24	SU	2.57	28.3%	8.3%	1.5%	.311	4.96	26.4%	19.6%	100	+2.39	2.57	365	80
Andrew Misiaszek L 2022 · 2.71 FIP	24	SU	2.71	30.6%	9.5%	1.8%	.341	4.44	19.5%	8.1%	46	+1.73	2.71	183	79
Andrew Nardi L 2023 · 3.22 FIP	24	SU	3.22	30.8%	8.0%	3.1%	.275	3.65	31.4%	22.4%	72	+0.43	3.22	266	77
Bobby Poyner L 2017 · 2.83 FIP	24	SU	2.83	27.8%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	3.98	22.1%	14.4%	123	+1.15	2.83	262	76
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.30	29.4%	17.2%	145	+0.19	1.77	196	76
Carson Skipper L 2024 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	25.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.322	4.23	18.2%	9.2%	77	+1.11	3.02	186	75
Travis Radke L 2018 · 2.35 FIP	25	SU	2.35	25.9%	4.8%	1.5%	.252	2.77	19.8%	12.0%	72	+0.42	2.35	178	75
Ben Krauth L 2018 · 2.48 FIP	24	SU	2.48	27.7%	9.5%	0.9%	.294	5.90	19.8%	7.0%	85	+3.42	0.85	304	75
Nate Lavender L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	23	SU	4.01	30.2%	9.9%	4.0%	.281	2.48	33.9%	27.3%	55	-1.53	2.48	146	75
Travis Bergen L 2018 · 2.48 FIP	24	SU	2.48	25.4%	7.3%	1.1%	.286	4.44	23.4%	11.1%	62	+1.96	2.48	143	74
Damaso Marte L 2001 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	25.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.287	3.09	26.5%	17.9%	214	-0.39	2.41	495	74
Brandon Eisert L 2022 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	27.3%	6.4%	3.7%	.311	4.04	23.8%	16.5%	192	+0.40	3.24	384	73
Ben Bowden L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	31.0%	10.9%	2.3%	.294	4.85	25.3%	12.5%	93	+1.74	2.77	393	73
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2007 · 3.35 FIP	24	SU	3.35	25.0%	8.3%	2.4%	.324	4.89	12.7%	4.4%	324	+1.54	3.35	363	73
Alex Torres L 2013 · 2.10 FIP	25	SU	2.10	27.4%	8.4%	0.4%	.215	4.20	20.8%	5.1%	126	+2.10	2.10	184	73
Keith Hessler L 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.0%	5.6%	2.9%	.275	4.41	18.3%	6.9%	156	+0.93	3.31	228	73
Sean Doolittle L 2012 · 2.06 FIP	25	SU	2.06	31.4%	5.2%	1.7%	.314	2.23	29.5%	25.2%	145	+0.17	1.39	438	72
Tristan Garnett L 2022 · 2.50 FIP	24	SU	2.50	28.7%	4.3%	2.3%	.290	3.38	23.7%	11.3%	114	+0.88	2.50	193	71
Kirby Bellow L 2016 · 2.84 FIP	24	SU	2.84	27.9%	4.8%	2.7%	.164	3.86	17.9%	4.5%	82	+1.02	2.84	108	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	30.1%	7.4%	1.10	3.41
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Eric Gagne ('08)	3.2	80	27.0%	8.5%	1.06	3.47
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.7	56	29.6%	6.6%	1.18	3.49
Chad Green ('25)	2.5	62	30.0%	6.4%	1.42	3.43
Bruce Sutter ('76-'88, 22 WAR*)	5.2	95	28.5%*	7.3%*	1.12*	3.14*