Micah Ashman P Chesapeake Baysox
Age 23 LHP 6'7" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 106
ERA3.80
FIP3.80
K%24.5%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%16.3%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
K: +7.3 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+7KBB: +1.1 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: +2.5 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+2CONTACTSTAM: +5.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: +1.72 (74 IP)+1.7WAR
0.00.51.00.00.40.40.40.4+$10M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†6060
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $4M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202421ALakeland Flying Tigers506259210%1.336.0%8.0%28.0%4.0%4.263.27
202421ALakeland Flying Tigers506259210%1.336.0%8.0%28.0%4.0%4.263.26
202522MIX2 levels43057221731200%1.325.9%6.1%19.8%0.0%2.351.69
202522MIX2 levels43057221731200%1.333.0%5.4%27.6%0.0%2.351.18
▸ 2026 Season
202623AAChesapeake Baysox23134139561014%1.533.0%7.3%25.7%0.9%1.871.73+1.1
ROS23MLBBAL38040169411440%1.124.5%8.2%16.3%2.5%3.803.80+0.4
ROS23MLBBAL10141000%1.024.5%8.2%16.3%2.6%3.853.85+0.0
2026 TOT23MLBBAL743089724531.6%7.7%23.9%1.7%2.922.86+1.7
2026 FULL23MLBBAL1310024.5%8.2%16.3%2.6%3.853.47+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBBAL39041174431440%1.124.9%8.1%16.8%2.5%3.803.76+0.4
202825MLBBAL40042176441440%1.025.2%8.0%17.1%2.5%3.793.75+0.4
202926MLBBAL40042176441440%1.025.3%8.0%17.2%2.5%3.783.75+0.4
203027MLBBAL39041173441440%1.125.2%8.1%17.1%2.6%3.803.81+0.4
202724MLBBAL170187619620%1.124.9%8.1%16.8%2.6%3.853.81+0.2
202825MLBBAL2702811830930%1.025.2%8.0%17.1%2.6%3.843.80+0.2
202926MLBBAL31033139351140%1.125.3%8.0%17.2%2.6%3.833.80+0.3
203027MLBBAL33035148371240%1.125.2%8.1%17.1%2.7%3.853.86+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career109011548512239130%1.125.2%8.1%17.1%2.6%3.843.44+2.6
/ 200 IP190020084421368230%1.125.2%8.1%17.1%2.6%3.843.44+4.6
Career711973851122621%1.429.1%6.7%22.4%0.6%2.311.81+4.0
/ 200 IP14622007912305351%1.429.1%6.7%22.4%0.6%2.311.81+8.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Micah Ashman (OGILVIE) 3.80 24.5%8.2%2.5% 3.75 25.1%17.1%124 -0.05
Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.54 FIP 23 SU 3.54 23.2%6.8%2.8%.259 4.09 19.9%7.5%106 +0.55 3.54 206 89
Logan Salow L 2026 · 2.75 FIP 23 SU 2.75 22.9%7.3%1.2%.331 3.83 24.9%7.0%103 +1.08 2.75 148 88
Jack Sellinger L 2027 · 2.73 FIP 24 SU 2.73 26.4%9.7%1.1%.284 3.31 24.4%9.1%91 +0.58 2.73 125 87
Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP 23 SU 3.75 21.8%7.5%2.8%.333 2.67 23.8%15.8%78 -1.08 2.51 119 87
Trey Jeans L 2026 · 2.74 FIP 23 SU 2.74 23.9%6.6%1.5%.345 5.23 22.7%7.8%88 +2.49 2.74 111 87
Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.66 FIP 24 SU 3.66 20.7%7.0%2.6%.288 4.13 9.7%3.3%61 +0.47 3.66 128 86
Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.92 FIP 23 SU 3.92 20.4%8.4%2.7%.262 3.93 20.5%10.3%91 +0.01 2.70 288 84
Reagan Todd L 2026 · 2.70 FIP 23 SU 2.70 26.6%7.1%1.7%.286 4.17 26.1%15.5%90 +1.47 2.70 122 84
Greg Nappo L 2029 · 3.40 FIP 26 SU 3.40 22.7%7.5%2.3%.267 5.45 16.5%5.9%79 +2.05 3.40 144 83
Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.18 FIP 23 SU 3.18 21.2%9.5%1.2%.265 3.39 23.3%12.8%147 +0.21 2.84 206 83
Hayden Harris L 2027 · 3.23 FIP 24 SU 3.23 29.1%11.2%2.1%.315 3.21 30.2%16.2%129 -0.02 1.86 180 83
Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.61 FIP 24 SU 3.61 25.3%12.3%2.0%.265 4.96 20.3%2.1%57 +1.35 3.61 101 83
Zac Curtis L 2026 · 2.61 FIP 23 SU 2.61 26.9%6.9%1.7%.265 3.99 23.3%10.4%152 +1.38 2.61 236 83
Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.21 FIP 24 SU 4.21 23.6%9.2%3.5%.316 4.00 21.8%11.4%184 -0.21 3.49 311 82
Mason Melotakis L 2028 · 3.12 FIP 25 SU 3.12 23.6%9.2%1.6%.379 4.28 18.2%7.1%80 +1.16 3.12 142 82
Jonah Hurney L 2027 · 2.78 FIP 24 SU 2.78 20.8%6.9%1.0%.285 4.02 13.4%5.8%81 +1.24 2.78 137 82
Michael Johnson L 2027 · 4.09 FIP 24 SU 4.09 20.6%9.4%2.8%.260 4.51 17.6%7.7%185 +0.42 3.88 256 82
Dylan Phillips L 2027 · 2.69 FIP 24 SU 2.69 23.9%9.8%0.7%.352 3.77 20.1%9.8%166 +1.08 2.69 221 81
Brandon Hughes L 2028 · 3.62 FIP 25 SU 3.62 27.0%11.1%2.5%.300 4.49 24.4%14.8%149 +0.87 3.62 206 81
Carson Skipper L 2026 · 2.87 FIP 23 SU 2.87 22.5%5.5%1.8%.385 3.75 21.2%12.2%136 +0.88 2.87 186 81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION54125.0%8.1%0.973.79
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
Kelvin Herrera ('19)55923.8%7.3%1.033.58
Zach McAllister ('18)45724.8%7.9%1.143.63
Joakim Soria ('21)75426.1%7.8%0.923.65
Sam Hentges ('24)45225.4%8.4%0.784.18
Juan Nicasio ('19)56825.5%8.4%0.834.21