Micah Ashman
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.7
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'7" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA3.80
FIP3.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.5%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%16.3%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 5 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.26 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 43 | 0 | 57 | 221 | 73 | 12 | 0 | 25.9% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 2.35 | 1.69 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 4 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 65 | 279 | 74 | 24 | 6 | 26.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 3.61 | 3.33 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 62 | 20 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 63 | 20 | 6 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 63 | 20 | 6 | 25.3% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 63 | 20 | 6 | 25.3% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 62 | 20 | 6 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 60 | 20 | 6 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 53 | 19 | 6 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 40 | 16 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 1 | 72 | 283 | 81 | 20 | 1 | 28.7% | 6.9% | 0.4% | 2.51 | 1.74 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 3 | 200 | 790 | 226 | 56 | 3 | 28.7% | 6.9% | 0.4% | 2.51 | 1.74 | +8.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Micah Ashman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.80 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.5% | — | 3.75 | 25.1% | 17.1% | 178 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .259 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.67 | 3.58 | 206 | 91 |
| Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 88 |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 88 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .262 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.13 | 2.73 | 288 | 86 |
| Greg Nappo L 2029 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 85 |
| Jonah Hurney L 2027 · 2.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 2.84 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 1.1% | .285 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 7.2% | 64 | +0.98 | 2.84 | 119 | 85 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.26 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .265 | 3.49 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 147 | +0.23 | 2.88 | 206 | 85 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 85 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Logan Salow L 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.78 | 22.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | .331 | 3.83 | 24.9% | 7.0% | 103 | +1.05 | 2.78 | 148 | 83 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.89 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .252 | 3.96 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 202 | +1.07 | 2.89 | 248 | 83 |
| Hayden Harris L 2027 · 3.12 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.12 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 1.9% | .315 | 2.78 | 32.4% | 20.5% | 95 | -0.34 | 1.85 | 146 | 83 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 83 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 82 |
| Sam Moll L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.38 | 21.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | .240 | 3.78 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 120 | -0.60 | 2.35 | 451 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2029 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 82 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.01 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% | .385 | 3.48 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 125 | +0.47 | 3.01 | 176 | 82 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2027 · 2.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 2.64 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 0.6% | .352 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 116 | +1.01 | 2.64 | 172 | 81 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $9M | $20M | +$11M | ||