Andrew Nardi
P
Miami Marlins
+0.6
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.83
FIP3.85
xFIP4.20
SIERA3.77
K%28.4%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%19.8%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p9033.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.265
FB+1.1 (49%)
CH+0.5 (10%)
SL-2.3 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 13 | 0 | 18 | 82 | 30 | 12 | 0 | 24.9% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 0.98 | 3.32 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 29 | 0 | 52 | 216 | 69 | 16 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 50 | 0 | 66 | 282 | 100 | 32 | 9 | 31.5% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 66 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 76 | 22 | 7 | 30.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 2.90 | 3.13 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 59 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 70 | 17 | 7 | 33.3% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.07 | 3.10 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 27.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 3.72 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 44 | 186 | 53 | 17 | 6 | 28.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.03 | 3.40 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 51 | 16 | 6 | 28.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 3.89 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 27.7% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 47 | 16 | 6 | 27.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 44 | 15 | 6 | 26.6% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 25.9% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 25.3% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 24.6% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.69 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 4.85 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 0 | 251 | 1063 | 316 | 106 | 31 | 29.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.48 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 252 | 84 | 25 | 29.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 3.69 | 3.48 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Nardi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 27.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.07 | 27.7% | 18.8% | 126 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Nick Mondak L 2025 · 2.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.69 | 30.9% | 6.4% | 2.5% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 153 | 78 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2028 · 2.71 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.71 | 25.9% | 6.3% | 1.8% | .356 | 3.70 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 101 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 181 | 76 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 76 |
| Boone Logan L 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 74 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 2.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.97 | 30.0% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 146 | 73 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.83 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .288 | 3.76 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 161 | +0.93 | 2.83 | 223 | 73 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 73 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 25.7% | 8.3% | 1.5% | .295 | 3.11 | 25.0% | 16.0% | 123 | +0.32 | 2.65 | 256 | 73 |
| Brennan Bernardino L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.04 | 25.2% | 6.2% | 2.4% | .267 | 2.52 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 33 | -0.52 | 2.52 | 406 | 72 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 26.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .216 | 3.74 | 25.0% | 13.4% | 39 | -0.55 | 2.75 | 176 | 72 |
| Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.16 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.76 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 106 | -0.40 | 3.26 | 399 | 72 |
| Will Smith L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.05 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 2.58 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 118 | -0.47 | 1.76 | 464 | 72 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.13 | 24.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | .323 | 2.88 | 24.7% | 17.1% | 131 | -0.25 | 2.07 | 363 | 71 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 71 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2028 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 71 |
| Andy Otero L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.88 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .298 | 4.35 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.47 | 2.86 | 200 | 70 |
| Alex Vesia L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .338 | 3.12 | 33.4% | 23.6% | 126 | -0.14 | 1.91 | 350 | 70 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 29.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | .245 | 4.37 | 26.8% | 15.4% | 138 | +0.25 | 3.79 | 470 | 70 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 70 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | .306 | 2.42 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.67 | 1.42 | 259 | 70 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.308 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$1M | ||