Andrew Nardi — OGILVIE

Andrew Nardi P Miami Marlins

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8189vR 97

ERA3.29

FIP3.36

K%29.9%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%22.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD7070

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p8330.4%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

FB+1.1 (50%)

CH+0.5 (12%)

SI (2%)

SL-2.3 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	13	0	18	82	30	12	0	0%	1.4	24.9%	18.3%	6.6%	0.0%	0.98	3.32	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	13	0	18	82	30	12	0	0%	1.4	36.6%	14.6%	22.0%	0.0%	0.98	1.79	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	52	216	69	16	6	0%	1.8	24.6%	8.4%	16.3%	3.2%	3.61	3.86	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	52	216	69	16	6	0%	1.8	31.9%	7.4%	24.5%	2.8%	3.61	2.87	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	66	282	100	32	9	0%	1.3	31.5%	11.7%	19.7%	3.4%	3.97	3.80	+0.6
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	66	282	100	32	9	0%	1.3	35.5%	11.3%	24.1%	3.2%	3.97	3.30	+1.0
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	59	247	76	22	7	0%	0.9	30.8%	8.0%	22.8%	3.1%	2.90	3.22	+0.9
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	59	247	76	22	7	0%	0.9	30.8%	8.0%	22.8%	3.1%	2.90	3.22	+0.9
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	59	247	76	22	7	0%	0.9	30.8%	8.9%	21.9%	2.8%	2.90	3.18	+1.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	59	0	50	210	70	17	7	0%	0.8	33.3%	8.1%	25.2%	3.5%	5.07	3.24	+0.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	59	0	50	210	70	17	7	0%	0.8	33.3%	8.1%	25.2%	3.5%	5.07	3.24	+0.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	59	0	50	210	70	17	7	0%	0.8	33.3%	8.1%	25.2%	3.3%	5.07	3.14	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	0	144	629	194	61	23	0%	0.9	30.8%	9.7%	21.1%	3.7%	4.61	3.75	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	25	0	23	99	27	11	4	0%	0.9	27.3%	11.1%	16.2%	4.3%	5.16	4.54	+0.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	25	0	23	99	27	11	4	0%	0.9	27.3%	11.1%	16.2%	4.3%	5.16	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	MIA	25	0	23	99	27	11	4	0%	0.9	27.3%	11.1%	16.2%	4.0%	5.16	4.42	+0.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	MIA	25	0	23	99	27	11	4	0%	0.9	27.3%	11.1%	16.2%	4.0%	5.16	4.42	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.1	29.9%	7.9%	22.0%	3.2%	3.29	3.36	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	29.9%	7.9%	22.0%	3.2%	3.29	3.36	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	24	103	28	11	4	—	—	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	4.0%	5.08	4.49	+0.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	24	100	28	11	4	—	—	28.3%	11.3%	17.0%	4.1%	5.08	4.42	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	58	0	60	255	77	20	9	0%	1.0	30.0%	8.0%	22.0%	3.4%	3.79	3.85	+0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	55	0	58	244	72	20	9	0%	1.0	29.4%	8.2%	21.2%	3.6%	3.92	4.01	+0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	54	0	57	241	72	19	8	0%	1.1	30.0%	8.0%	22.0%	3.4%	3.79	3.85	+0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	52	0	55	232	68	19	8	0%	1.1	29.4%	8.2%	21.2%	3.6%	3.92	4.01	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		268	0	258	1107	336	100	40	0%	1.0	30.4%	9.0%	21.3%	3.6%	4.28	3.65	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		208	0	200	860	261	78	31	0%	1.0	30.4%	9.0%	21.3%	3.6%	4.28	3.65	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		242	0	268	1136	335	114	36	0%	1.1	29.5%	10.0%	19.5%	3.2%	3.77	3.61	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	0	200	849	251	85	27	0%	1.1	29.5%	10.0%	19.5%	3.2%	3.77	3.61	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Nardi (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.49	31.1%	7.0%	3.2%	—	3.93	29.7%	21.6%	118	+0.44	—	—	—
Kevin Siegrist L 2016 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	26.6%	9.7%	4.3%	.216	3.95	25.0%	13.4%	39	-0.51	2.72	176	77
Luis Avilán L 2016 · 2.80 FIP	27	SU	2.80	25.7%	8.3%	1.5%	.295	3.13	25.0%	16.0%	123	+0.33	2.62	256	75
Alex Vesia L 2023 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	30.2%	7.1%	3.3%	.338	3.20	32.5%	21.8%	177	-0.05	1.91	401	75
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	73
Justin Wilson L 2015 · 2.49 FIP	27	SU	2.49	27.0%	8.2%	1.1%	.297	3.28	29.1%	18.1%	171	+0.79	2.49	420	73
Buddy Boshers L 2016 · 2.80 FIP	28	SU	2.80	24.3%	6.8%	1.6%	.288	3.81	22.5%	14.2%	161	+1.01	2.80	223	73
Marc Rzepczynski L 2015 · 2.73 FIP	29	SU	2.73	25.9%	6.3%	1.8%	.356	3.73	19.4%	7.9%	101	+1.00	2.73	181	73
Brad Hand L 2017 · 2.60 FIP	27	SU	2.60	33.4%	6.1%	2.8%	.251	2.23	34.8%	28.0%	151	-0.37	0.84	577	73
Fabian Williamson L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	23.8%	9.0%	2.1%	.259	5.26	16.5%	-3.3%	54	+1.87	3.39	154	73
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	73
Will Smith L 2016 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	28.7%	10.2%	1.9%	.283	2.55	35.8%	29.4%	118	-0.48	1.76	464	72
Chasen Shreve L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	27	SU	4.11	29.3%	11.1%	3.8%	.245	4.38	26.8%	15.4%	138	+0.27	3.89	470	72
Felipe Vázquez L 2018 · 2.30 FIP	27	SU	2.30	30.1%	7.4%	1.5%	.326	1.83	38.1%	32.6%	60	-0.47	1.83	331	72
Darien Núñez L 2019 · 2.48 FIP	26	SU	2.48	32.5%	11.3%	1.3%	.333	2.65	35.0%	24.6%	52	+0.17	2.48	122	71
Andrew Chafin L 2017 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	27.6%	8.1%	2.2%	.314	2.78	27.7%	18.1%	102	-0.25	2.42	531	71
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	71
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	71
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	71
Parker Mushinski L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	27	SU	4.09	24.4%	7.2%	3.9%	.288	3.98	20.6%	10.2%	162	-0.11	3.11	455	70
Phillip Diehl L 2021 · 3.71 FIP	27	SU	3.71	29.1%	5.9%	4.2%	.244	5.33	19.5%	8.7%	72	+1.62	2.57	365	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	30.2%	7.8%	1.32	3.71
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12