Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 63 | 271 | 82 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 3.55 | 3.77 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 0 | 63 | 271 | 82 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 30.3% | 7.0% | 23.2% | 1.8% | 3.55 | 2.44 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 45 | 5 | 61 | 248 | 77 | 15 | 8 | 11% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 6.4% | 21.0% | 3.9% | 3.41 | 3.75 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 45 | 5 | 61 | 248 | 77 | 15 | 8 | 11% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 6.0% | 25.0% | 3.2% | 3.41 | 3.02 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 59 | 1 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 25 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 4.17 | 4.55 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 59 | 1 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 25 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.17 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 4 | 60 | 253 | 68 | 25 | 7 | 9% | 1.3 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 3.88 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 4 | 60 | 253 | 68 | 25 | 7 | 9% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 9.9% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.60 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 74 | 3 | 72 | 314 | 77 | 20 | 12 | 4% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 3.8% | 4.40 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 74 | 3 | 72 | 314 | 77 | 20 | 12 | 4% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 6.4% | 18.2% | 3.8% | 4.40 | 3.97 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 65 | 9 | 70 | 304 | 76 | 23 | 13 | 14% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 7.6% | 16.9% | 4.3% | 5.79 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 3.95 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 3.95 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 84 | 361 | 90 | 27 | 15 | — | — | 24.8% | 7.5% | 17.3% | 4.2% | 5.49 | 4.32 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 70 | 293 | 90 | 27 | 15 | — | — | 30.5% | 9.3% | 21.3% | 5.2% | 6.59 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 68 | 22 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 62 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.0% | 15.4% | 4.3% | 4.77 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 64 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 58 | 20 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.0% | 15.4% | 4.3% | 4.77 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 256 | 11 | 268 | 1146 | 276 | 87 | 48 | 4% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.5% | 4.2% | 4.78 | 4.32 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 8 | 200 | 854 | 206 | 65 | 36 | 4% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.5% | 4.2% | 4.78 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 320 | 22 | 395 | 1680 | 413 | 131 | 63 | 7% | 1.2 | 24.6% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 3.8% | 4.24 | 4.08 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 11 | 200 | 851 | 209 | 66 | 32 | 7% | 1.2 | 24.6% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 3.8% | 4.24 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Eisert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.1% | 7.2% | 3.5% | — | 4.79 | 23.8% | 15.9% | 129 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 82 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 3.9% | .326 | 3.53 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 91 | -0.77 | 2.46 | 483 | 79 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.33 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 2.3% | .280 | 4.48 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 115 | +1.15 | 3.10 | 337 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Fernando Abad L 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.32 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | .256 | 3.61 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 90 | -1.71 | 2.35 | 306 | 75 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 72 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 72 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 71 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.91 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 4.7% | .311 | 4.24 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 141 | -0.67 | 3.94 | 470 | 69 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 69 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .268 | 3.20 | 26.6% | 13.5% | 55 | -0.05 | 3.20 | 194 | 69 |
| Matt Dermody L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.04 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | .294 | 4.19 | 19.8% | 16.7% | 23 | -0.85 | 2.34 | 348 | 69 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 68 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .314 | 4.06 | 26.1% | 17.8% | 84 | +0.57 | 3.49 | 522 | 68 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 68 |
| Tyler Lyons L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 4.8% | .220 | 3.26 | 26.8% | 18.9% | 173 | -1.37 | 2.61 | 376 | 68 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 67 |
| Steven Okert L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.78 | 25.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | .325 | 3.57 | 29.3% | 20.0% | 107 | -1.21 | 2.47 | 584 | 66 |
| Colin Poche L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.64 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 4.8% | .236 | 4.18 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 126 | -0.46 | 1.37 | 380 | 66 |
| Joe La Sorsa L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 390 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 1.53 | 4.51 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |