Joel Canizalez — OGILVIE

Joel Canizalez P FCL Rays

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%20.0%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	10	9	32	137	23	12	1	90%	3.2	11.4%	10.9%	0.5%	1.1%	3.90	4.12	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	10	9	32	137	23	12	1	90%	3.2	16.8%	8.8%	8.0%	0.7%	3.90	3.19	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	41	174	22	20	2	23%	3.2	9.0%	11.8%	-2.8%	1.8%	2.85	4.80	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	41	174	22	20	2	23%	3.2	9.0%	11.8%	-2.8%	1.8%	2.85	4.80	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	3	41	174	22	20	2	23%	3.2	12.6%	11.5%	1.1%	1.1%	2.85	4.12	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	16	0	22	114	17	21	0	0%	1.4	10.1%	23.0%	-12.9%	0.0%	6.85	5.16	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	16	0	22	114	17	21	0	0%	1.4	10.1%	23.0%	-12.9%	0.0%	6.85	5.16	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	16	0	22	114	17	21	0	0%	1.4	14.9%	18.4%	-3.5%	0.0%	6.85	4.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	15	0	16	68	14	11	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	15.7%	4.3%	2.9%	5.40	5.40	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	86	18	12	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.8%	7.1%	2.9%	5.16	5.07	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.8%	7.1%	2.9%	5.16	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	37	8	5	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.8%	7.1%	2.9%	5.16	4.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	115	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.8%	7.1%	2.9%	5.16	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		39	12	96	425	43	62	5	31%	2.5	10.1%	14.5%	-4.5%	1.1%	4.14	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	25	200	889	90	129	10	31%	2.5	10.1%	14.5%	-4.5%	1.1%	4.14	4.68	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Canizalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	20.0%	15.7%	2.9%	—	5.07	20.8%	7.1%	20	-0.33	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	81
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	77
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	76
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	76
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	76
Will Bednar R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	24	SW	6.40	23.8%	23.1%	4.3%	.240	3.83	25.5%	9.4%	115	-2.57	3.38	202	75
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	75
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	75
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	75
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	75
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	74
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	74
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	74
Dylan Heid R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.37	2.66	135	74
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	74
Matt Merrill R 2022 · 6.06 FIP	24	SW	6.06	20.4%	22.4%	3.4%	.314	3.92	25.4%	7.0%	108	-2.14	3.14	205	74
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	74
Engert Garcia R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	24	SW	4.25	15.9%	16.8%	0.7%	.311	5.94	12.9%	-14.3%	26	+1.69	3.13	125	74
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	74