Christian Lopez — OGILVIE

Christian Lopez P ACL Reds

Age 20 LHP 6'2" / 207 lbs ROK peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 114

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%21.0%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	7	35	9	4	1	0%	1.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	2.9%	5.14	3.94	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	7	35	9	4	1	0%	1.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	2.9%	5.14	3.94	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	5	0	7	35	9	4	1	0%	1.4	25.7%	11.4%	14.3%	2.9%	5.14	4.10	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	10	47	190	64	14	0	77%	3.6	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	0.0%	2.09	2.33	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	10	47	190	64	14	0	77%	3.6	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	0.0%	2.09	2.33	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	10	47	190	64	14	0	77%	3.6	33.7%	7.4%	26.3%	0.0%	2.09	1.28	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	3	26	111	23	4	4	43%	3.7	14.1%	4.5%	9.6%	4.0%	4.50	4.69	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	3	26	111	23	4	4	43%	3.7	14.1%	4.5%	9.6%	4.0%	4.50	4.69	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	7	3	26	111	23	4	4	43%	3.7	20.7%	3.6%	17.1%	3.6%	4.50	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	CIN	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	21.0%	7.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.23	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	45	189	41	13	5	100%	6.4	21.7%	7.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.18	4.15	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	22	93	20	7	3	100%	7.3	21.7%	7.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.18	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	22	93	20	7	3	100%	7.3	21.7%	7.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.18	3.77	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	182	64	27	100%	6.5	21.7%	7.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.18	3.77	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		25	13	80	336	68	26	5	52%	3.2	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	1.6%	3.14	3.28	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	32	200	837	170	66	14	52%	3.2	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	1.6%	3.14	3.28	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	21.0%	7.1%	3.0%	—	4.15	21.7%	14.5%	45	-0.08	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	81
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	80
Denny Roman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.55	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.31	3.24	109	80
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2017 · 3.19 FIP	21	SP-	3.19	18.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.365	4.82	13.1%	7.3%	157	+1.63	3.19	184	80
Benony Robles L 2021 · 3.65 FIP	20	SP-	3.65	22.3%	10.1%	2.1%	.262	5.09	19.2%	4.5%	135	+1.44	3.65	271	80
Antonio Jimenez L 2021 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	23.1%	8.8%	2.1%	.292	4.35	19.3%	7.8%	248	+0.95	3.33	422	79
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	78
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	78
Oscar Rayo L 2022 · 3.61 FIP	20	SW	3.61	19.9%	6.1%	2.6%	.316	3.28	16.5%	9.1%	244	-0.33	2.52	369	78
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	78
Rafael Monsion L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	19	SP-	4.13	16.1%	7.2%	2.7%	.252	5.19	16.2%	6.4%	22	+1.06	4.01	159	78
Alejandro Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.49 FIP	20	SP-	3.49	16.3%	6.3%	1.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.78	181	77
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	77
Franklin Dacosta L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP-	3.78	15.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.274	3.72	21.2%	13.5%	118	-0.06	2.83	247	77
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	177	77
Luis Guzman L 2016 · 4.41 FIP	20	SP-	4.41	14.7%	5.9%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	116	77
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	76
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	76
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	76
Josh Dye L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	21	SP-	4.35	15.1%	4.1%	3.7%	.373	3.14	23.0%	14.9%	123	-1.21	2.79	238	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	21.5%	7.1%	1.13	4.20
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19