Oscar Rayo
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112122vR 131
ERA4.95
FIP4.95
K%14.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%3.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 9 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 2.3 | 20.7% | 4.6% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 3.92 | 2.86 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 9 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 2.3 | 30.5% | 3.7% | 26.8% | 1.2% | 3.92 | 1.75 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 5 | 44 | 177 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 36% | 3.1 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 2.25 | 3.46 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 5 | 44 | 177 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 36% | 3.1 | 28.2% | 5.1% | 23.2% | 2.3% | 2.25 | 2.62 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 6 | 71 | 289 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 26% | 3.1 | 16.9% | 4.9% | 12.0% | 0.4% | 3.15 | 2.50 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 6 | 71 | 289 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 26% | 3.1 | 22.8% | 4.2% | 18.7% | 0.3% | 3.15 | 1.94 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 25 | 7 | 85 | 337 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 28% | 3.4 | 17.8% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 0.8% | 2.13 | 2.86 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 25 | 7 | 85 | 337 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 28% | 3.4 | 23.1% | 5.6% | 17.5% | 0.6% | 2.13 | 2.24 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 35 | 3 | 88 | 364 | 67 | 34 | 7 | 9% | 2.5 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 3.70 | 4.24 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 35 | 3 | 88 | 364 | 67 | 34 | 7 | 9% | 2.5 | 18.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 3.70 | 3.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 25 | 1 | 54 | 222 | 51 | 13 | 9 | 4% | 2.2 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 12.7% | 4.9% | 4.17 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 40 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.1% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 121 | 506 | 91 | 42 | 16 | — | — | 18.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 14.1% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 46 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 49 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 0 | 77 | 324 | 54 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.36 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 141 | 84 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 25 | 362 | 1471 | 257 | 102 | 27 | 19% | 2.8 | 17.5% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 3.13 | 3.52 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 14 | 200 | 812 | 142 | 56 | 15 | 19% | 2.8 | 17.5% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 3.13 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Oscar Rayo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 14.1% | 10.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.74 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 136 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Michael Heesch L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 14.0% | 10.3% | 1.2% | .284 | 4.59 | 11.1% | 2.8% | 44 | +0.72 | 3.87 | 109 | 85 |
| Matt Crouse L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .276 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 268 | +0.35 | 3.97 | 342 | 83 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.93 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.15 | 16.3% | 0.5% | 152 | +0.22 | 3.88 | 244 | 83 |
| Steve Ascher L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.07 | 13.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 151 | 83 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.76 | 13.4% | 10.2% | 0.9% | .335 | 3.15 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 166 | -0.61 | 2.83 | 325 | 82 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 82 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.62 | 12.7% | 2.7% | 41 | -0.12 | 4.27 | 156 | 81 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2028 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 4.6% | 144 | +0.04 | 4.44 | 188 | 81 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.85 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.08 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.23 | 3.85 | 104 | 78 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.37 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.06 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 68 | -0.31 | 4.06 | 135 | 78 |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 78 |
| Matt Tracy L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 78 |
| Cameron Ming L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.28 | 14.3% | 9.4% | 4.0% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 111 | 78 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .261 | 4.93 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.70 | 4.19 | 201 | 78 |
| Drake Britton L 2028 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 77 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.82 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .295 | 3.77 | 17.5% | 9.1% | 61 | -0.05 | 3.77 | 200 | 77 |
| Braulio Lara L 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 77 |
| Andre Wheeler L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.32 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 4.0% | .347 | 4.73 | 14.4% | 2.4% | 29 | -0.59 | 3.77 | 150 | 77 |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.30 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -1.16 | 3.11 | 151 | 77 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.41 | 17.7% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 132 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 0.97 | 4.84 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |