Oscar Rayo — OGILVIE

Oscar Rayo P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%14.1%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	9	3	21	82	25	3	1	33%	2.3	20.7%	4.6%	16.2%	1.7%	3.92	2.86	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	9	3	21	82	25	3	1	33%	2.3	30.5%	3.7%	26.8%	1.2%	3.92	1.75	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	5	44	177	50	9	4	36%	3.1	19.9%	6.1%	13.8%	2.6%	2.25	3.61	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	5	44	177	50	9	4	36%	3.1	28.2%	5.1%	23.2%	2.3%	2.25	2.62	—
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	6	71	289	66	12	1	26%	3.1	16.9%	4.9%	12.0%	0.4%	3.15	2.52	—
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	6	71	289	66	12	1	26%	3.1	16.9%	4.9%	12.0%	0.4%	3.15	2.52	—
2023	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	6	71	289	66	12	1	26%	3.1	22.8%	4.2%	18.7%	0.3%	3.15	1.94	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	7	85	337	78	19	2	28%	3.4	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	0.8%	2.13	2.84	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	7	85	337	78	19	2	28%	3.4	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	0.8%	2.13	2.84	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	25	7	85	337	78	19	2	28%	3.4	23.1%	5.6%	17.5%	0.6%	2.13	2.24	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	35	3	88	364	67	34	7	9%	2.5	14.9%	10.3%	4.6%	2.1%	3.70	4.32	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	35	3	88	364	67	34	7	9%	2.5	14.9%	10.3%	4.6%	2.1%	3.70	4.32	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	35	3	88	364	67	34	7	9%	2.5	18.4%	9.3%	9.1%	1.9%	3.70	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	28	1	61	246	57	15	9	4%	2.2	18.9%	6.1%	12.7%	4.4%	3.69	4.69	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	28	1	61	246	57	15	9	4%	2.2	18.9%	6.1%	12.7%	4.4%	3.69	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	KC	22	1	48	186	46	8	9	5%	2.2	24.7%	4.3%	20.4%	4.8%	4.15	4.21	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	KC	6	0	13	60	11	7	0	0%	2.2	18.3%	11.7%	6.7%	0.0%	2.02	3.03	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	6	24	3	2	1	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.9%	4.3%	2.5%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	67	270	60	17	10	—	—	22.4%	6.4%	15.9%	3.6%	3.79	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	76	0	80	337	54	33	9	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.7%	6.3%	2.5%	4.79	4.75	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	76	0	80	337	57	32	9	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	2.6%	4.71	4.68	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	75	0	79	332	58	32	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.7%	7.7%	2.7%	4.69	4.70	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	73	0	76	322	56	32	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.77	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	69	0	73	308	53	31	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.0%	7.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.90	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	65	0	68	289	48	30	9	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.3%	6.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.08	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	33	0	35	148	24	14	4	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.7%	6.3%	2.5%	4.79	4.75	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	53	224	38	21	6	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	2.6%	4.71	4.68	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	58	0	61	258	45	25	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.7%	7.7%	2.7%	4.69	4.70	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	61	0	64	270	47	26	7	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.77	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	61	0	64	270	46	27	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	10.0%	7.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.90	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	59	0	62	262	44	27	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.3%	6.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		323	0	339	1433	244	141	40	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	2.8%	4.79	4.44	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	83	24	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	2.8%	4.79	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		134	25	369	1495	262	103	28	19%	2.8	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	1.9%	3.07	3.54	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	14	200	810	142	56	15	19%	2.8	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	1.9%	3.07	3.54	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oscar Rayo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	14.1%	9.9%	2.5%	—	4.71	16.8%	7.1%	238	-0.21	—	—	—
Matt Crouse L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.0%	6.3%	2.0%	.276	4.40	12.2%	4.3%	268	+0.41	3.99	342	85
Jordan Harrison L 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	15.6%	9.0%	2.0%	.263	4.14	16.3%	0.5%	152	+0.10	3.80	244	84
Michael Heesch L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	14.0%	10.3%	1.1%	.284	4.56	11.1%	2.8%	44	+0.77	3.79	109	84
Steve Ascher L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SU	4.14	13.3%	9.5%	1.8%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	151	84
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	83
Colton Turner L 2015 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	13.4%	10.2%	0.9%	.335	3.23	22.0%	13.6%	166	-0.53	2.79	325	82
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	80
Jacob Evans L 2018 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	15.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	179	80
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	80
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	80
Patrick McCoy L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.336	4.28	15.4%	1.6%	44	+0.47	3.81	113	80
Austin Hamilton L 2018 · 4.49 FIP	24	SW	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.323	4.02	17.3%	9.4%	68	-0.47	4.02	135	79
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	79
Hayden Howard L 2018 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	17.9%	9.6%	1.9%	.295	3.76	17.5%	9.1%	61	-0.08	3.76	200	78
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	78
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	78
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	77
Yoely Bello L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	13.8%	9.1%	1.9%	.254	5.03	10.8%	-1.6%	35	+0.87	4.16	103	77
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	77
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	75	16.6%	9.8%	1.05	4.80
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59