Oscar Rayo
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.4
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2028
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.8%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%9.6%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 9 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 20.7% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 3.92 | 2.86 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 14 | 5 | 44 | 177 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 2.25 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 6 | 71 | 289 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 16.9% | 4.9% | 0.4% | 3.15 | 2.52 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 25 | 7 | 85 | 337 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 17.8% | 6.5% | 0.8% | 2.13 | 2.84 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 35 | 3 | 88 | 364 | 67 | 34 | 7 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 4.31 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 4 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 2 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 67 | 33 | 9 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 96 | 400 | 77 | 33 | 11 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 3.92 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 82 | 37 | 11 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 90 | 39 | 11 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 94 | 40 | 12 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 94 | 40 | 12 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 449 | 91 | 39 | 12 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.36 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 88 | 39 | 12 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 84 | 38 | 12 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 79 | 37 | 12 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 74 | 36 | 12 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 69 | 35 | 11 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 64 | 34 | 11 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 65 | 30 | 11 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.77 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 59 | 28 | 10 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 24 | 320 | 1290 | 225 | 88 | 20 | 17.5% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 2.90 | 3.32 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 15 | 200 | 807 | 141 | 55 | 13 | 17.5% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 2.90 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Oscar Rayo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.29 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 312 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 91 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.61 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .266 | 6.15 | 11.5% | -1.2% | 56 | +2.54 | 3.61 | 145 | 88 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 88 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 88 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 87 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 87 |
| Jake Zokan L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .292 | 1.79 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.14 | 1.79 | 120 | 87 |
| Matt Lujan L 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 86 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 86 |
| Matt Tracy L 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 86 |
| Sam Garcia L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 86 |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 86 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 86 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 85 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 85 |
| Eric Wooten L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 85 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 84 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.30 | 14.5% | 5.7% | 289 | +0.58 | 3.72 | 408 | 84 |
| Justin Marks L 2029 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$1M |
| Totals | $9M | $49M | +$40M | ||