Ixan Henderson

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTFG #396Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	22	17	104	2.34	2.89	24.2%	9.5%	—	K 18.1% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.77
2025	23	AASTL	25	25	132	2.59	2.72	25.2%	9.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.27
2026	24	MIX3 levels	5	4	14	4.61	4.93	16.1%	17.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 17.9% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	15	15	88	4.42	4.42	20.3%	10.3%	0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSTL	8	8	51	4.29	4.28	20.7%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	12	12	73	4.30	4.31	20.8%	9.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control50Command52FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Dalton Sawyer (age 23) · Chipper Smith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%20.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP88

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL—50

CMD4050

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	16	5	4	0	0%	0.9	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.63	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	16	5	4	0	0%	0.9	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.65	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	18.1%	11.1%	7.0%	1.5%	2.34	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	18.1%	11.1%	7.0%	1.5%	2.34	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	24.2%	9.5%	14.8%	1.2%	2.34	2.89	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	1.0%	2.59	3.27	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	1.0%	2.59	3.27	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	25.2%	9.6%	15.6%	0.9%	2.59	2.72	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.61	4.98	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.61	4.98	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.61	4.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	15	15	88	372	76	38	9	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	502	104	50	13	100%	5.9	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	2.5%	4.39	4.38	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	117	494	103	49	13	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	2.6%	4.40	4.41	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	114	479	99	48	13	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.45	4.49	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	458	94	46	13	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.61	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	102	430	87	45	13	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.79	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	95	401	79	43	13	100%	5.9	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.3%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	51	215	45	22	5	100%	6.4	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	2.3%	4.29	4.28	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	73	308	64	31	7	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	2.4%	4.30	4.31	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	85	359	74	36	9	100%	6.1	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	2.5%	4.35	4.39	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	88	372	76	38	10	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.7%	4.43	4.50	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	74	38	11	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.67	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	70	38	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	469	1980	404	202	53	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.7%	4.46	4.14	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	172	86	23	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.7%	4.46	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		56	46	253	1037	201	118	13	82%	4.5	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	2.56	3.58	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	819	159	93	10	82%	4.5	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	2.56	3.58	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ixan Henderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	20.3%	10.3%	2.5%	—	4.43	20.7%	10.8%	349	+0.01	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	85
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	83
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	83
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	82
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	82
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	80
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	79
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	79
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	78
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
Seth Lonsway L 2024 · 3.35 FIP	25	SP	3.35	16.0%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	4.52	15.2%	3.1%	226	+1.17	3.35	506	77
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	77
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	77
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	77
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	77
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	77
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	20.4%	10.2%	1.08	4.53
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Ken McBride ('59-'65, 7 WAR*)	4.0	135	19.7%*	10.0%*	0.98*	4.29*
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
Fred Burchell ('03-'09, 0 WAR*)	1.4	95	19.6%*	9.9%*	1.05*	4.84*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32