Asbel Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Asbel GonzalezOF Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 170 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION332 act + 221 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .287 / .253

PA221

HR1

SB22

K%29

BB%7

BABIP302

ISO46

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$30M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	173	150	27	6	1	1	12	39	7	17	11	180	272	253	526	73	230	23	7	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	173	143	35	10	2	1	19	26	7	17	11	245	361	364	725	119	286	15	11	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	182	159	34	8	2	0	12	50	9	22	4	214	306	289	595	75	309	27	7	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	182	151	43	11	2	0	20	37	9	22	4	285	400	384	784	99	374	20	11	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	505	436	81	12	3	1	33	127	29	78	26	186	287	234	521	48	259	25	7	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	505	415	99	12	3	1	54	86	29	78	26	239	365	289	655	51	298	17	11	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A+	KC	—	332	288	68	3	2	2	22	108	8	49	10	236	308	281	589	45	363	33	7	258	56	-17	+6	+0	-2	+9	-0.3
YTD	20	A+	KC	—	332	279	78	4	2	3	31	80	8	49	10	280	368	341	708	61	375	24	9	315	99	-0	+6	+0	-2	+9	1.3
ROS	20	A+	KC	0%	221	197	41	4	1	1	15	65	7	22	5	208	287	253	541	46	307	29	7	258	56	-11	+2	+0	-1	+6	-0.3
ROS	20	MLB	KC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						304	0	0	233	36	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	20	A+	KC	—	333	289	68	3	2	2	22	108	8	49	10	235	307	280	587	45	361	32	7	258	56	-17	+6	+0	-2	+9	-0.4
TOT	20	A+	KC	—	553	485	109	7	3	3	37	173	15	71	15	225	300	270	570	45	337	31	7	258	56	-28	+8	+0	-3	+16	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	KC	35%	546	487	108	13	3	6	38	153	16	36	9	222	299	298	597	76	306	28	7	275	69	-19	+4	+1	-3	+15	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	KC	49%	597	532	122	15	3	10	44	161	16	35	8	229	307	325	633	96	305	27	7	288	79	-14	+4	+1	-4	+17	0.4
2029	23	MLB	KC	54%	615	548	128	16	3	12	46	162	16	32	8	234	311	339	651	106	305	26	7	296	85	-11	+3	+1	-4	+17	0.8
2030	24	MLB	KC	55%	627	558	132	17	3	13	48	162	16	29	7	237	315	348	663	111	306	26	8	301	88	-8	+3	+1	-4	+18	1.0
2031	25	MLB	KC	56%	634	563	134	17	3	14	49	163	17	26	6	238	318	353	671	115	306	26	8	303	90	-7	+3	+1	-4	+18	1.1
2032	26	MLB	KC	56%	639	567	134	17	3	14	50	164	17	24	6	236	317	351	668	115	306	26	8	304	91	-7	+2	+1	-4	+18	1.2
2033	27	MLB	KC	55%	637	564	134	17	3	14	51	164	17	23	6	238	320	353	672	115	306	26	8	304	91	-7	+2	+1	-4	+18	1.1
2034	28	MLB	KC	55%	631	558	131	16	3	14	51	163	17	20	5	235	318	349	667	115	305	26	8	303	90	-7	+2	+1	-4	+18	1.0
2027	21	MLB	KC	35%	189	169	37	4	1	2	13	53	5	13	3	219	294	290	584	71	302	28	7	252	51	-10	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2028	22	MLB	KC	49%	290	259	59	7	2	5	21	78	8	17	4	228	306	328	634	100	302	27	7	265	61	-13	+2	+1	-2	+8	-0.4
2029	23	MLB	KC	54%	334	297	68	8	2	6	25	88	9	17	4	229	308	330	638	101	302	26	7	273	67	-12	+2	+1	-2	+9	-0.2
2030	24	MLB	KC	55%	348	309	72	9	2	7	27	90	9	16	4	233	313	343	656	110	302	26	8	278	71	-11	+2	+1	-2	+10	-0.1
2031	25	MLB	KC	56%	355	316	73	9	2	7	27	91	9	15	4	231	310	339	648	108	303	26	8	280	73	-11	+1	+1	-2	+10	-0.1
2032	26	MLB	KC	56%	359	319	75	9	2	8	28	92	9	14	3	235	315	351	666	116	302	26	8	281	74	-11	+2	+1	-2	+10	-0.0
2033	27	MLB	KC	55%	352	312	74	9	2	8	28	91	9	12	3	237	318	356	674	119	302	26	8	281	74	-11	+1	+1	-2	+10	-0.1
2034	28	MLB	KC	55%	346	306	72	9	2	7	28	90	9	11	3	235	318	346	664	111	302	26	8	280	73	-11	+1	+0	-2	+10	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2574	2288	530	64	15	50	197	673	67	115	28	232	311	338	649	107	304	26	8	276	69	-90	+12	+5	-15	+73	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	134	16	4	13	50	170	17	29	7	232	312	341	653	109	303	26	8	276	69	-23	+3	+1	-4	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	6007	5319	1206	158	31	100	449	1573	184	364	101	227	309	324	633	98	301	26	7	288	78	-147	+32	+10	-36	+170	3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	130	17	3	11	49	170	20	39	11	226	309	323	632	97	299	26	8	288	78	-16	+3	+1	-4	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	173	143	35	10	2	1	19	26	7	17	11	245	361	364	725	119	286	15	11	326	108	+2	-1	—	—	+5	0.6
2024	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	182	151	43	11	2	0	20	37	9	22	4	285	400	384	784	99	374	20	11	358	132	+7	+3	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	505	415	99	12	3	1	54	86	29	78	26	239	365	289	655	51	298	17	11	310	95	-3	+5	—	—	+14	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#4Tony Womacklast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,230 PA	7	3,230	23	169	269	310	351	-8	-7	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	5	35	269	310	351	-1.7	-1.5	0.7	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,574	52	115	235	311	344	-15	+18	3.1	3.1
	/162	664	13	30	235	311	344	-4.0	+4.6	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Asbel Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	20	31→48	26→40	60	49	225/300/270	45	337	3	71	31%	7%	56	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Hill 2016 · A	20	42→51	37→50	57→60	43	201/256/274	73	272	4	24	26%	6%	44	-2.1	198/248/270	72	310	3	27	35%	6%	39	-2.5	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2010 · A	20	49→59	36→45	60	48	227/275/295	68	267	2	31	16%	6%	56	-1.3	244/293/341	97	285	8	24	16%	6%	76	+0.1	267/306/366	100	305	8	16	15%	5%	85	+0.5
✕Delino DeShields 2013 · A	20	46→55	41→45	61→65	44	223/285/323	100	300	8	36	27%	7%	69	-0.4	229/299/333	104	311	8	37	27%	8%	78	+0.2	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
✕Rafael Bautista 2013 · A	20	51→53	35→30	61→60	45	236/301/296	59	312	1	33	23%	7%	69	-0.4	243/290/308	65	304	3	32	20%	5%	67	-0.5	248/289/311	63	301	3	38	18%	4%	64	-0.4
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	52→62	36→45	60→65	43	244/281/309	66	292	2	33	17%	4%	63	-0.9	265/291/347	82	307	4	36	14%	3%	76	+0.1	272/311/362	90	305	8	25	13%	4%	86	+0.7
●Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	207/251/284	77	292	3	28	29%	5%	43	-2.2	238/289/310	72	334	2	63	27%	7%	66	-0.6	249/300/336	88	321	4	80	22%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Kenny Wilson 2010 · A	20	35→45	37→40	56→60	37	170/241/239	69	279	4	27	38%	6%	30	-3.1	179/252/238	59	281	3	27	34%	7%	34	-2.8	195/262/289	94	302	8	22	35%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Leury García 2011 · A	20	49→59	35→45	58→60	39	230/264/287	57	302	3	28	25%	4%	50	-1.8	231/264/305	74	319	4	27	27%	4%	54	-1.4	271/310/392	120	337	12	22	22%	4%	95	+0.8
●Mallex Smith 2014 · A	21	47→57	37→45	58→65	48	221/294/290	68	289	5	34	24%	8%	65	-0.7	255/319/349	94	335	6	44	23%	8%	90	+1.0	270/333/370	100	351	5	52	23%	8%	97	+1.1
●Rey Fuentes 2011 · A	20	46→56	36→40	59→60	38	219/261/290	71	297	3	25	27%	4%	50	-1.8	223/271/306	83	318	6	27	30%	5%	59	-1.1	274/321/368	94	353	8	33	23%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Jay Allen II 2023 · A	20	43→40	40	59→55	45	204/296/300	96	298	7	32	31%	8%	70	-0.3	186/279/271	85	278	7	28	33%	8%	56	-1.3	192/275/286	94	267	10	24	30%	7%	55	-1.0
✕Tito Polo 2016 · A	21	43→50	38→45	56→60	40	207/261/291	84	276	5	26	26%	5%	51	-1.7	223/277/331	108	297	10	27	27%	5%	68	-0.5	225/280/337	113	299	11	32	28%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Jenner Emeterio 2014 · A	21	45	35→30	54→60	52	209/291/266	57	279	3	25	24%	10%	58	-1.2	222/308/290	68	293	2	20	22%	10%	71	-0.3	235/336/301	66	302	0	28	19%	12%	85	+0.3
✕Jeffrey Baez 2014 · A	20	44→43	38→50	58→60	40	209/260/290	82	288	5	27	28%	5%	50	-1.7	202/244/300	98	284	8	22	31%	5%	46	-2.0	196/251/342	146	261	19	15	32%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Marcus Sanders 2007 · A	21	46→55	36→30	59→60	48	217/288/285	68	291	3	31	25%	8%	61	-1.0	220/289/292	72	293	3	23	24%	8%	63	-0.8	228/303/293	65	301	0	28	22%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	64→65	42	204/266/281	77	293	2	27	29%	7%	50	-1.7	220/283/294	74	332	4	27	32%	7%	61	-1.0	230/297/289	60	352	4	45	33%	8%	61	-0.4
✕Jorge Mateo 2015 · A	20	43→46	41→50	60→65	44	207/270/305	98	282	7	30	28%	7%	58	-1.2	205/250/310	105	293	7	37	31%	5%	50	-1.7	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Cameron Cauley 2023 · A	20	39→42	37→50	60	37	183/239/254	71	300	4	28	38%	6%	31	-3.0	192/245/311	119	312	12	26	40%	6%	50	-1.8	199/253/334	135	284	13	30	34%	7%	56	-0.9
✕Gabriel Mejia 2015 · A	20	54	34→30	63→70	51	245/315/301	55	327	1	43	24%	9%	76	+0.0	246/304/301	55	315	1	32	20%	7%	70	-0.3	248/299/288	40	312	0	29	19%	6%	62	-0.3