Oscar Hernandez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Oscar Hernandez P DSL White Sox

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%22.0%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	15	0	23	112	34	21	2	0%	1.6	20.6%	23.4%	-2.8%	2.0%	6.17	5.44	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	15	0	23	112	34	21	2	0%	1.6	20.6%	23.4%	-2.8%	2.0%	6.17	5.44	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	15	0	23	112	34	21	2	0%	1.6	30.4%	18.8%	11.6%	1.8%	6.17	4.00	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	6	0	12	54	8	6	0	0%	1.9	10.1%	13.9%	-3.8%	0.0%	3.86	4.01	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	6	0	12	54	8	6	0	0%	1.9	10.1%	13.9%	-3.8%	0.0%	3.86	4.01	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	6	0	12	54	8	6	0	0%	1.9	14.8%	11.1%	3.7%	0.0%	3.86	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.95	4.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.77	4.69	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	CWS	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.77	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.77	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.77	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		21	0	35	166	29	34	2	0%	1.7	17.2%	20.3%	-3.1%	1.4%	5.40	4.97	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	949	163	193	13	0%	1.7	17.2%	20.3%	-3.1%	1.4%	5.40	4.97	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oscar Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	22.0%	13.4%	3.0%	—	4.69	22.5%	10.6%	20	-0.26	—	—	—
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	88
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	88
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	87
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	86
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	85
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	522	84
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	84
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	84
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	84
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	84
Augusto Calderon R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	20	SU	4.24	21.2%	12.6%	2.4%	.226	4.35	18.2%	5.9%	126	+0.11	3.58	208	84
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	83