Manuel Mendoza
Manuel Mendoza
P
DSL Astros Orange
Age 19
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION8 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.0%
IP8
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 0 | 14 | 70 | 12 | 15 | 1 | 11.7% | 26.8% | 1.2% | 5.27 | 6.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | — | 8 | — | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | — | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 70 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 11.7% | 26.8% | 1.2% | 5.27 | 6.17 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 1024 | 117 | 278 | 15 | 11.7% | 26.8% | 1.2% | 5.27 | 6.17 | -1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Mendoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.23 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Matt Walker R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.90 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.69 | 2.42 | 211 | 87 |
| Osiris German R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.25 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.01 | 3.11 | 187 | 87 |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 86 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.87 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.41 | 4.13 | 179 | 85 |
| Danny Dopico R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 85 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 85 |
| Brandon White R 2028 · 3.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.14 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.60 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 166 | +0.46 | 3.14 | 221 | 84 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2029 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 84 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 84 |
| Chris Gau R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 84 |
| Blake Workman R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.92 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.08 | 3.34 | 213 | 84 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2029 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 84 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.45 | 3.05 | 471 | 84 |
| Michael Gomez R 2029 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 84 |
| Addison Russ R 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 84 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.02 | 376 | 84 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 83 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.12 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.37 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.75 | 3.30 | 104 | 83 |
| Felix Castro R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.48 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .295 | 5.02 | 14.9% | -1.8% | 97 | +1.54 | 3.48 | 144 | 83 |
| Sean Boyle R 2028 · 4.70 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.70 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .342 | 2.85 | 22.6% | 15.3% | 86 | -1.85 | 2.85 | 470 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.