Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 10 | 0 | 15 | 64 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 4.4% | 3.60 | 4.70 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 10 | 0 | 15 | 64 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 3.1% | 3.60 | 2.97 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 10 | 86 | 345 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 37% | 3.2 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 1.3% | 1.99 | 2.85 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 10 | 86 | 345 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 37% | 3.2 | 28.4% | 6.4% | 22.0% | 1.2% | 1.99 | 2.19 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 155 | 630 | 160 | 34 | 25 | 96% | 5.5 | 21.0% | 5.8% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 3.71 | 4.48 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 155 | 630 | 160 | 34 | 25 | 96% | 5.5 | 25.4% | 5.4% | 20.0% | 4.0% | 3.71 | 3.79 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 9 | 9 | 35 | 168 | 36 | 12 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 6.69 | 4.89 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 9 | 9 | 35 | 168 | 36 | 12 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 6.69 | 4.67 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 2 | 21 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 12% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 5.7% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 2.95 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 2 | 21 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 12% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 5.7% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 2.96 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 28 | 23 | 135 | 585 | 120 | 51 | 16 | 82% | 4.8 | 18.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 28 | 23 | 135 | 585 | 120 | 51 | 16 | 82% | 4.8 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 23 | 7 | 70 | 313 | 57 | 20 | 9 | 30% | 3.1 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 5.76 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 79 | 0 | 83 | 349 | 61 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 153 | 662 | 118 | 52 | 19 | — | — | 17.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 4.55 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 8 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 78 | 328 | 65 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 7.1 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 72 | 306 | 60 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 67 | 283 | 55 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.7 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 62 | 260 | 49 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.8 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 5.21 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 7.2 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 40 | 169 | 33 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.7 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 47 | 198 | 38 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.7 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 23 | 169 | 713 | 137 | 66 | 24 | 74% | 5.5 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.53 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 28 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 78 | 28 | 75% | 5.4 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 78 | 517 | 2192 | 434 | 159 | 70 | 55% | 3.7 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 30 | 200 | 847 | 168 | 61 | 27 | 55% | 3.7 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Boyle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.77 | 19.5% | 10.6% | 217 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 82 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 82 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 80 |
| Jason Berken R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 80 |
| Scott McGregor R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 80 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 79 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 79 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 79 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 75 |
| Colin Bates R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 75 |
| Scott Carroll R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.78 | 12.7% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .286 | 5.39 | 11.2% | 2.6% | 128 | +1.61 | 3.78 | 248 | 74 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 74 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 73 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 73 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 73 |
| Aaron Brooks R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | .281 | 4.30 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 70 | -0.48 | 3.61 | 879 | 73 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2024 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 73 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2023 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 73 |
| Michael Blazek R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 5.85 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 39 | +1.93 | 3.05 | 221 | 72 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 72 | 19.0% | 9.2% | 1.26 | 4.78 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |