Jose Bello

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 164 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTFG #989MiLBFA 2035

ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKSF	8	7	28	2.93	1.37	35.2%	4.6%	—	K 23.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 2.42
2025	20	MIX2 levels	20	5	56	2.75	2.20	26.4%	10.4%	—	K 18.4% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.13
2026	21	MIX2 levels	20	12	74	4.64	4.65	16.0%	11.7%	—	K 11.9% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.78
2027PROJ	22	MLBBOS	9	9	52	5.62	5.62	14.1%	13.6%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBBOS	6	6	34	5.26	5.14	16.8%	12.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBBOS	8	8	49	5.00	4.87	18.5%	11.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$1M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command45FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsDavid Rodriguez (age 22) · Seth McClung (age 22) · Ben Ethridge (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%14.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%0.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3545

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	9	8	33	141	39	10	1	89%	3.7	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.9%	3.55	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	9	8	33	141	39	10	1	89%	3.7	27.7%	7.1%	20.6%	0.7%	3.55	2.04	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	1.1%	2.93	2.42	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	1.1%	2.93	2.42	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	35.2%	4.6%	30.6%	0.9%	2.93	1.37	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	0.0%	2.75	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	0.0%	2.75	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	0.0%	2.75	2.20	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	11.9%	14.3%	-2.4%	3.4%	4.64	5.78	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	11.9%	14.3%	-2.4%	3.4%	4.64	5.78	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	16.0%	11.7%	4.3%	2.5%	4.64	4.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BOS	9	9	52	220	31	30	6	100%	5.8	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	2.9%	5.62	5.62	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	69	290	49	35	8	100%	5.7	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	2.9%	5.30	5.18	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	70	298	55	33	9	100%	5.9	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	2.9%	5.04	4.91	-0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	301	59	32	9	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.6%	8.9%	2.9%	4.85	4.75	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	301	61	32	9	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	70	297	60	32	9	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.73	+0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	68	288	57	31	9	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	65	275	54	30	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.2%	4.88	4.95	-0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	61	258	50	29	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	3.4%	5.03	5.12	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	34	144	24	17	4	100%	5.7	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	2.8%	5.26	5.14	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	49	207	38	23	6	100%	6.1	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	2.8%	5.00	4.87	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	48	26	7	100%	5.8	19.6%	10.6%	8.9%	2.8%	4.81	4.71	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	53	28	7	100%	6.2	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	2.8%	4.71	4.65	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	63	266	53	28	8	100%	6.3	20.1%	10.6%	9.4%	2.8%	4.70	4.69	+0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	63	266	53	29	8	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.78	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	61	258	51	28	8	100%	6.1	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	47	27	8	100%	5.7	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	3.3%	4.98	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	447	1889	367	207	55	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.0%	8.5%	2.9%	4.85	4.45	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	93	25	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.0%	8.5%	2.9%	4.85	4.45	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		57	32	190	805	133	94	14	56%	3.3	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	1.7%	3.65	4.10	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	847	141	99	14	56%	3.3	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	1.7%	3.65	4.10	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	14.1%	13.6%	2.9%	—	4.94	18.3%	7.0%	211	-0.68	—	—	—
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	88
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	85
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	85
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	85
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	84
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	82
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	82
Xavier Altamirano R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	11.3%	11.0%	2.1%	.333	4.51	14.7%	7.7%	388	-0.21	3.91	451	82
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	82
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	82
Gavin Floyd R 2005 · 5.53 FIP	22	SP-	5.53	13.4%	11.0%	3.9%	.275	5.01	15.7%	8.1%	331	-0.52	2.95	1,250	82
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	81
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	81
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	67	18.8%	11.2%	1.15	4.98
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*