Ariel Lebron

OF DSL Astros Blue

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 148 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	ROKDSL Astros Or…	131	.313/.473/.364	0	5	84	—	.243/.395/.291
2025	20	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	111	.299/.440/.425	1	16	59	—	.196/.321/.283
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBHOU	221	.211/.289/.292	2	7	68	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBHOU	37	.218/.295/.308	0	1	71	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

wOBA88

wRC+84

Speed77

K%68

ISO67

Whiff%54

CompsIsmael Alcantara (age 22) · Kenedy Corona (age 22) · Troy Stokes Jr. (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .287 / .290

PA62

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	103	25	1	2	0	9	25	17	5	6	243	395	291	687	49	286	19	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	92	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	196	321	283	604	87	234	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	103	25	1	2	0	9	25	17	5	6	243	395	291	687	49	316	19	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	92	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	196	321	283	604	87	254	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	104	25	1	2	0	9	25	17	5	6	240	395	288	684	48	286	19	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	93	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	194	321	280	601	86	234	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	93	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	194	321	280	601	86	234	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	221	197	42	9	1	2	16	59	6	7	1	211	289	292	582	81	289	27	7	268	68	-9	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	109	97	21	4	1	1	8	29	3	3	0	214	293	303	596	89	290	27	7	273	71	-4	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	37	33	7	2	0	0	3	10	1	1	0	218	295	308	604	91	295	27	8	277	71	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	37	33	7	2	0	0	3	10	1	1	0	212	297	273	570	61	304	27	8	277	71	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	123	35	0	0	53	176	18	18	0	212	298	272	571	60	304	27	8	277	71	-22	+4	+0	-4	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	413	348	74	12	3	2	29	96	31	26	7	213	328	282	610	69	285	23	7	274	71	-6	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	548	117	19	5	3	46	151	49	41	11	214	330	283	613	69	286	23	7	274	71	-23	+4	+0	-4	+14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Lebron (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	209/287/290	81	289	0	2	27%	7%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	43→30	38→45	57→50	41	200/268/280	80	315	5	16	36%	8%	57	-1.8	210/268/332	122	313	12	13	35%	6%	69	-0.9	200/258/307	108	293	11	16	34%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→42	39→50	52→55	39	208/262/296	88	288	6	20	29%	5%	58	-1.7	210/270/340	130	291	14	23	31%	7%	72	-0.7	201/268/328	126	276	14	27	31%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2017 · A	21	44→40	39→50	55	45	212/283/303	91	280	6	19	25%	7%	68	-1.0	207/280/342	135	279	13	18	29%	8%	76	-0.4	195/275/337	142	264	15	19	30%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Yhoswar Garcia 2024 · A	22	39	37→30	58→70	39	190/246/264	74	268	4	27	30%	5%	45	-2.7	209/257/270	61	275	2	42	23%	6%	49	-2.4	208/255/258	50	270	1	58	22%	6%	44	-1.6
✕Nelson Medina 2023 · A	22	41	40→45	53→50	47	195/282/289	95	292	6	13	32%	10%	65	-1.2	176/236/261	85	335	6	13	46%	7%	40	-3.0	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Lolo Sanchez 2021 · A	22	45	39→45	54→55	45	215/279/308	93	262	6	21	20%	6%	68	-1.0	214/290/322	108	258	12	18	21%	8%	76	-0.4	204/284/298	95	242	11	17	20%	9%	66	-0.7
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2008 · A	22	43	38→40	52→55	50	203/279/280	77	258	5	18	22%	8%	61	-1.5	191/249/259	68	294	4	11	34%	5%	45	-2.7	132/178/179	47	218	4	5	40%	2%	-1	-1.1
✕Dasan Brown 2024 · A	22	42→40	39→40	52→60	39	197/268/280	84	303	7	21	35%	6%	58	-1.7	188/264/271	83	289	7	31	35%	8%	54	-2.0	172/256/247	75	267	7	41	35%	8%	43	-1.4
✕Alex Mooney 2024 · A	22	41→39	39→40	53→55	44	196/263/283	87	261	6	12	26%	6%	56	-1.9	190/263/289	99	265	8	27	30%	7%	58	-1.7	182/255/278	96	255	8	30	30%	7%	51	-1.8
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	41→44	38→45	50→65	42	199/251/269	70	259	6	15	25%	5%	47	-2.5	210/270/306	96	280	7	19	26%	7%	63	-1.3	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	43→38	37→40	54→50	43	202/278/275	73	283	3	12	28%	7%	61	-1.5	209/294/310	101	262	9	15	22%	8%	75	-0.5	204/297/299	95	251	9	15	21%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Zack Larson 2015 · A	21	46→36	39→45	52→50	40	220/273/303	84	295	6	11	27%	5%	63	-1.3	194/250/257	63	268	2	10	27%	6%	45	-2.7	169/228/214	45	235	0	12	26%	6%	26	-3.1
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	190/265/292	102	283	8	14	34%	8%	59	-1.6	204/267/311	107	290	7	12	30%	6%	63	-1.3	179/266/281	102	259	10	19	32%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Charcer Burks 2017 · A	22	41→48	40	52→50	44	200/267/293	93	278	6	17	29%	7%	59	-1.6	209/281/303	94	291	7	14	28%	8%	68	-1.0	205/279/290	85	284	6	14	28%	8%	62	-1.2
✕Angel Aponte 2021 · A	21	42	39→40	54→55	41	203/261/292	89	279	6	17	28%	6%	57	-1.8	206/263/297	91	296	7	20	31%	5%	59	-1.7	189/245/275	85	274	8	24	32%	5%	45	-1.0
✕Jawuan Harris 2019 · A	22	39→27	40	51→55	42	186/266/280	94	290	6	14	35%	8%	57	-1.8	163/253/245	82	311	6	19	45%	9%	45	-2.7	123/226/195	71	254	5	26	48%	10%	22	-2.2
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→30	39→45	50	47	208/276/293	85	264	7	12	23%	8%	63	-1.4	192/262/298	106	257	12	15	29%	8%	59	-1.6	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	43→37	41→45	58→50	47	208/286/313	105	274	8	16	26%	8%	72	-0.7	190/258/293	103	266	10	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	173/241/264	91	242	10	7	31%	7%	41	-2.2
✕Jhonny Santos 2019 · A	22	41	40→45	50	41	203/254/297	94	272	8	14	28%	6%	55	-1.9	206/263/323	117	278	12	13	29%	6%	65	-1.2	190/248/320	130	244	17	9	29%	7%	57	-0.9
✕Jake Vogel 2024 · A	22	41→40	36→40	55	39	192/256/265	73	293	3	17	34%	6%	49	-2.4	185/257/258	73	290	5	18	35%	7%	49	-2.4	138/225/185	48	226	4	22	38%	8%	19	-2.5