Brayan Narvaez — OGILVIE

Brayan Narvaez P DSL Giants Black

+0.2 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2029

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%13.2%

IP37

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2029

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	6	6	24	98	19	4	2	13.2%	5.1%	3.2%	3.70	4.37	+0.2
2024	19	ROK	DSL Giants Black	12	11	44	179	45	10	2	17.1%	7.0%	1.4%	3.92	3.30	+0.8
2025	20	ROK	DSL Giants Black	11	11	47	186	40	12	1	14.6%	8.1%	0.7%	2.49	3.28	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	SF	37	—	37	157	35	14	4	22.1%	8.9%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	SF	39	—	39	165	38	14	5	23.1%	8.5%	2.8%	4.21	4.14	+0.4
2028	23	MLB	SF	41	—	41	171	41	14	5	23.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.03	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	SF	42	—	42	176	43	14	5	24.4%	8.0%	2.8%	4.02	3.95	+0.5
2030	25	MLB	SF	42	—	42	178	44	14	5	24.7%	7.9%	2.7%	3.96	3.90	+0.5
2031	26	MLB	SF	42	—	42	178	44	14	5	24.9%	7.9%	2.7%	3.91	3.88	+0.5
2032	27	MLB	SF	42	—	42	176	44	14	5	25.0%	7.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.89	+0.5
2033	28	MLB	SF	41	—	41	174	43	14	5	24.9%	8.0%	2.8%	3.91	3.92	+0.5
2034	29	MLB	SF	40	—	40	170	42	14	5	24.8%	8.1%	2.8%	3.94	3.96	+0.5
2035	30	MLB	SF	39	—	39	165	41	13	5	24.6%	8.2%	2.9%	3.99	4.03	+0.4
2036	31	MLB	SF	38	—	38	159	39	13	5	24.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.06	4.10	+0.4
2037	32	MLB	SF	36	—	36	153	37	13	5	24.1%	8.4%	3.0%	4.14	4.19	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	SF	35	—	35	146	35	13	5	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	4.23	4.28	+0.3
2039	34	MLB	SF	33	—	33	139	33	12	4	23.4%	8.8%	3.2%	4.33	4.39	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			29	28	115	463	71	32	7	15.3%	7.0%	1.5%	3.29	3.52	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			50	49	200	805	123	56	12	15.3%	7.0%	1.5%	3.29	3.52	+4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Narvaez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	22.1%	8.9%	2.9%	—	4.04	23.8%	15.6%	121	-0.27	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	93
Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	91
Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.62	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.22	4.40	140	91
Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	91
Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	91
Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.02	20.5%	8.9%	111	+0.23	2.94	206	89
Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.01	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.62	3.80	155	89
Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.18	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.58	2.98	211	89
Reece Karalus R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SU	4.79	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.79	14.8%	4.1%	103	-0.00	4.73	149	89
Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	21	SU	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.43	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.34	4.09	215	89
Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	89
Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	21	SU	3.83	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.79	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.83	206	89
Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	88
Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	88
Andrew Bash R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.22	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.35	3.63	428	88
Brandon Beckel R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	22	SU	3.74	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.34	17.1%	7.3%	76	+0.60	3.74	123	88
Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.12 FIP	20	SU	4.12	17.4%	9.5%	2.3%	.343	5.21	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.09	4.12	412	88
Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	88
Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.17	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.32	3.05	195	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$6M