Brayan Narvaez
P
ACL Giants
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%15.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 6 | 6 | 24 | 98 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 13.2% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 3.70 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 6 | 6 | 24 | 98 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 4.1% | 15.3% | 2.0% | 3.70 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 12 | 11 | 44 | 179 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 92% | 3.6 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 1.3% | 3.92 | 3.27 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 12 | 11 | 44 | 179 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 92% | 3.6 | 25.1% | 5.6% | 19.6% | 1.1% | 3.92 | 2.32 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 11 | 11 | 47 | 186 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 0.7% | 2.49 | 3.28 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 11 | 11 | 47 | 186 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.5% | 6.5% | 15.1% | 0.5% | 2.49 | 2.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants | 17 | 1 | 33 | 138 | 33 | 8 | 4 | 6% | 1.9 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.90 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SF | — | — | 69 | 289 | 56 | 22 | 8 | — | — | 19.4% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 5.07 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SF | 36 | 0 | 38 | 158 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SF | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SF | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SF | 37 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SF | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SF | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SF | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SF | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SF | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SF | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 215 | 0 | 225 | 952 | 185 | 82 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.02 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 73 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 29 | 148 | 601 | 93 | 42 | 12 | 63% | 3.2 | 15.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 3.82 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 39 | 200 | 812 | 126 | 57 | 17 | 63% | 3.2 | 15.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Narvaez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.57 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 116 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Petit R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .272 | 5.09 | 15.6% | 2.4% | 113 | +0.35 | 2.80 | 189 | 88 |
| Conor Harber R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.93 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 1.4% | .257 | 4.32 | 16.3% | 2.8% | 262 | +0.39 | 2.98 | 333 | 86 |
| Sasagi Sanchez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.42 | 11.4% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.54 | 12.7% | 4.0% | 108 | +0.12 | 3.48 | 180 | 85 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 85 |
| Trent Fennell R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .317 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 89 | -0.24 | 3.88 | 163 | 85 |
| Henry Valencio R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .293 | 5.11 | 11.9% | -11.9% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.48 | 136 | 83 |
| Jheyson Caraballo R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.25 | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 101 | 83 |
| Kyle Weatherly R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.2% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.39 | 13.3% | 1.6% | 169 | +0.61 | 3.78 | 207 | 82 |
| Luis Rujano R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.69 | 17.0% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .361 | 5.05 | 17.0% | -2.8% | 72 | +0.36 | 4.67 | 178 | 82 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 82 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 82 |
| Adriel Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.27 | 14.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 117 | 82 |
| David McKay R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.37 | 15.2% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.56 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 211 | +0.19 | 3.29 | 288 | 82 |
| Geno Encina R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 82 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 81 |
| Luis Rosario R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 206 | 81 |
| Ryan Long R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.20 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.46 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 292 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 405 | 81 |
| Wilmer Ortega R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .304 | 5.83 | 16.1% | 1.8% | 30 | +1.97 | 3.62 | 158 | 81 |
| Juan Perez R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 81 |
| John Matthews R 2028 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 39 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 1.08 | 4.57 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |