Brayan Narvaez — OGILVIE

Brayan Narvaez P ACL Giants

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%15.3%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	6	6	24	98	19	4	2	100%	4.1	13.2%	5.1%	8.1%	3.0%	3.70	4.29	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	6	6	24	98	19	4	2	100%	4.1	13.2%	5.1%	8.1%	3.0%	3.70	4.29	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	6	6	24	98	19	4	2	100%	4.1	19.4%	4.1%	15.3%	2.0%	3.70	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	11	44	179	45	10	2	92%	3.6	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	1.4%	3.92	3.33	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	11	44	179	45	10	2	92%	3.6	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	1.4%	3.92	3.33	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	12	11	44	179	45	10	2	92%	3.6	25.1%	5.6%	19.6%	1.1%	3.92	2.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	47	186	40	12	1	100%	4.3	14.6%	8.1%	6.6%	0.7%	2.49	3.29	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	47	186	40	12	1	100%	4.3	14.6%	8.1%	6.6%	0.7%	2.49	3.29	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	11	11	47	186	40	12	1	100%	4.3	21.5%	6.5%	15.1%	0.5%	2.49	2.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	1	39	161	37	11	5	5%	2.0	15.6%	8.5%	7.1%	4.3%	4.89	5.25	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	1	39	161	37	11	5	5%	2.0	15.6%	8.5%	7.1%	4.3%	4.89	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	SF	19	1	39	161	37	11	5	5%	2.0	23.0%	6.8%	16.1%	3.1%	4.89	3.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SF	42	0	44	187	33	16	5	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	SF	21	0	22	93	16	8	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	22	92	16	8	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	73	27	0%	1.1	17.3%	8.3%	9.0%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		48	29	154	624	96	46	14	60%	3.2	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	2.2%	3.69	3.96	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	38	200	812	125	60	18	60%	3.2	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	2.2%	3.69	3.96	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Narvaez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	15.3%	8.7%	2.9%	—	4.61	17.3%	9.0%	44	-0.24	—	—	—
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	88
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	88
Conor Harber R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	21	SW	3.93	14.3%	10.0%	1.4%	.257	4.33	16.3%	2.8%	262	+0.40	3.05	333	85
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	85
Sasagi Sanchez R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	21	SW	4.48	11.4%	9.4%	2.1%	.289	4.45	12.7%	4.0%	108	-0.03	3.48	180	85
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	85
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	84
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	84
Kyle Weatherly R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	14.2%	7.1%	1.8%	.307	4.37	13.3%	1.6%	169	+0.59	3.78	207	83
Connor Mayes R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	21	SP-	3.68	13.4%	6.8%	1.5%	.274	5.29	12.2%	1.4%	62	+1.61	3.68	105	83
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	83
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	82
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Cesar Ventura R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	13.0%	5.8%	3.3%	.329	5.30	13.0%	0.7%	39	+0.76	3.79	135	82
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	82
Matt Smith R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	13.0%	6.4%	1.7%	.340	5.04	14.2%	6.7%	115	+1.27	3.77	163	81
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	81
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	81
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	16.4%	8.5%	1.09	4.76
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43