Brayan Narvaez

P ACL Giants

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1782ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	11	11	47	2.49	2.44	21.5%	6.5%	—	K 14.6% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.29
2026	21	ROKSF	19	1	39	4.89	3.72	23.0%	6.8%	—	K 15.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.25
2027PROJ	22	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.66	4.66	18.7%	8.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSF	21	0	22	4.41	4.34	20.4%	8.6%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSF	30	0	31	4.29	4.21	21.5%	8.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNick Gallagher (age 22) · Marc Brakeman (age 22) · Dustin McGowan (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%18.7%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	6	6	24	98	19	4	2	100%	4.1	13.2%	5.1%	8.1%	3.0%	3.70	4.29	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	6	6	24	98	19	4	2	100%	4.1	19.4%	4.1%	15.3%	2.0%	3.70	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	11	44	179	45	10	2	92%	3.6	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	1.4%	3.92	3.33	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	11	44	179	45	10	2	92%	3.6	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	1.4%	3.92	3.33	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	12	11	44	179	45	10	2	92%	3.6	25.1%	5.6%	19.6%	1.1%	3.92	2.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	47	186	40	12	1	100%	4.3	14.6%	8.1%	6.6%	0.7%	2.49	3.29	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	47	186	40	12	1	100%	4.3	14.6%	8.1%	6.6%	0.7%	2.49	3.29	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	11	11	47	186	40	12	1	100%	4.3	21.5%	6.5%	15.1%	0.5%	2.49	2.44	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	1	39	161	37	11	5	5%	2.0	15.6%	8.5%	7.1%	4.3%	4.89	5.25	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	1	39	161	37	11	5	5%	2.0	15.6%	8.5%	7.1%	4.3%	4.89	5.25	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	19	1	39	161	37	11	5	5%	2.0	23.0%	6.8%	16.1%	3.1%	4.89	3.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	42	0	45	188	38	16	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.6%	11.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	42	0	45	188	40	16	5	0%	1.1	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	38	0	40	171	38	14	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	39	0	41	171	38	14	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.25	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	38	0	40	167	37	14	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.4%	13.9%	3.0%	4.28	4.29	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	21	0	22	93	19	8	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.6%	11.9%	2.7%	4.41	4.34	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	31	131	28	11	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.29	4.21	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	31	0	33	139	31	12	4	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.15	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	33	0	35	148	33	12	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	2.7%	4.16	4.13	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	34	0	36	152	34	13	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.4%	13.9%	2.7%	4.16	4.17	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	0	157	663	145	56	18	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	2.7%	4.23	3.81	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	71	23	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	2.7%	4.23	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		48	29	154	624	96	46	14	60%	3.2	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	2.2%	3.69	3.96	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	38	200	812	125	60	18	60%	3.2	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	2.2%	3.69	3.96	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Giants · 39 IPFIP 3.73 → 5.25 (+1.52)K% 23.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.98%	—	×0.680	15.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.83%	—	×1.250	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.35%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Giants Black · 47 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.29 (+0.89)K% 21.5% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.51%	—	×0.680	14.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.250	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.54%	÷1.022	×1.400	0.74%

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Giants Black · 44 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.33 (+1.03)K% 25.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.14%	—	×0.680	17.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.59%	—	×1.250	6.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.092	×1.400	1.43%

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Giants Orange · 24 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.29 (+1.19)K% 19.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.39%	—	×0.680	13.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.08%	—	×1.250	5.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.949	×1.400	3.01%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Narvaez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.36	21.3%	12.8%	130	-0.30	—	—	—
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	87
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	86
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	86
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	86
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	84
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	84
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	83
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	83
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	82
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.08	18.4%	12.2%	324	+0.88	4.20	474	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	82
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	82
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	82
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	81
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	81
Luis Perez R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	22	SW	4.84	16.7%	6.7%	4.2%	.223	4.46	17.0%	7.7%	139	-0.38	3.19	303	81
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	81
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	42	21.1%	8.5%	1.14	4.42
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*