Dariel Francia

P Bradenton Marauders

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Pirates G…	12	1	34	3.48	2.42	30.2%	11.5%	—	K 20.5% · BB 14.4% · FIP 3.84
2025	19	MIX2 levels	15	1	32	4.50	3.44	26.0%	16.9%	—	K 20.5% · BB 18.9% · FIP 4.48
2026	20	MIX3 levels	23	1	47	5.94	5.65	27.0%	22.2%	—	K 19.2% · BB 26.0% · FIP 6.52
2027PROJ	21	MLBPIT	20	0	21	5.90	5.90	20.8%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBPIT	21	0	22	5.50	5.34	21.9%	16.6%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsWill Varmette (age 21) · José Mesa Jr. (age 22) · Hansel Rosario (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%20.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	13	6	36	158	46	22	3	46%	2.7	19.8%	17.4%	2.4%	2.7%	3.79	5.09	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	13	6	36	158	46	22	3	46%	2.7	29.1%	13.9%	15.2%	1.9%	3.79	3.46	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	1	34	139	42	16	1	8%	2.8	20.5%	14.4%	6.2%	1.2%	3.48	3.84	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	12	1	34	139	42	16	1	8%	2.8	20.5%	14.4%	6.2%	1.2%	3.48	3.84	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	12	1	34	139	42	16	1	8%	2.8	30.2%	11.5%	18.7%	0.7%	3.48	2.42	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	154	40	26	1	7%	2.1	20.5%	18.9%	1.7%	1.3%	4.50	4.48	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	32	154	40	26	1	7%	2.1	20.5%	18.9%	1.7%	1.3%	4.50	4.48	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	32	154	40	26	1	7%	2.1	26.0%	16.9%	9.1%	0.6%	4.50	3.44	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	47	230	62	51	7	4%	2.0	19.2%	26.0%	-6.8%	3.2%	5.94	6.52	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	47	230	62	51	7	4%	2.0	19.2%	26.0%	-6.8%	3.2%	5.94	6.52	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	1	47	230	62	51	7	4%	2.0	27.0%	22.2%	4.8%	3.0%	5.94	5.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PIT	20	0	21	89	18	18	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	20.0%	0.8%	3.0%	5.90	5.90	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	42	0	44	187	41	31	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.9%	5.50	5.34	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	21	0	22	93	20	15	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.9%	5.50	5.34	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	22	92	20	15	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.9%	5.50	4.96	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	137	27	0%	1.1	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.9%	5.50	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		63	9	148	681	136	136	15	14%	2.4	19.9%	20.0%	-0.1%	2.2%	4.55	5.18	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	12	200	918	183	184	21	14%	2.4	19.9%	20.0%	-0.1%	2.2%	4.55	5.18	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dariel Francia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	20.8%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.34	21.9%	5.3%	44	-0.56	—	—	—
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	84
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	84
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	84
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	83
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	83
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	82
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	82
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	82
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	81
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	81
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	81
Yovanny Cabrera R 2022 · 6.15 FIP	21	SU	6.15	17.5%	19.5%	3.8%	.274	4.91	18.2%	1.9%	128	-1.24	4.39	243	81
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	81
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	80
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	80
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	80
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	79
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	21.6%	17.7%	1.14	5.63
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*