Pablo Guerrero

OF Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 200 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ATEX	396	.208/.305/.318	7	0	32	—	.164/.236/.239
2026	20	ATEX	156	.331/.455/.567	7	2	127	—	.267/.365/.430
2026	20	ROKTEX	22	.421/.500/.579	0	0	128	—	.300/.364/.400
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBTEX	336	.199/.274/.309	6	3	65	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBTEX	90	.205/.281/.327	2	1	71	-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBTEX	174	.209/.285/.338	4	2	75	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

wOBA98

wRC+98

ISO91

BB%84

Chase%73

K%59

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 76%

CompsRudy van Heydoorn (age 21) · Jose Meza (age 21) · Brian Sanchez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 194 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .272 / .306

PA194

HR4

K%29

BB%8

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	125	28	5	0	4	23	34	5	1	4	224	366	360	726	136	270	22	15	333	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	107	97	22	3	0	1	6	25	1	1	0	227	279	289	568	62	284	23	6	254	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	210	186	56	14	3	7	18	63	3	1	1	301	372	522	893	220	412	30	9	386	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	346	72	17	0	7	45	99	3	0	0	208	305	318	622	110	269	25	11	286	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	156	127	42	9	0	7	26	35	3	2	0	331	455	567	1.022	236	412	22	17	449	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	22	19	8	3	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	421	500	579	1.079	158	444	5	9	478	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	132	17	3	0	2	16	43	5	1	4	129	248	197	445	68	169	28	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	107	99	19	2	0	1	4	33	1	1	0	192	231	242	473	51	263	31	4	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	210	192	38	9	2	5	12	91	3	1	1	198	256	344	600	146	317	43	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	360	59	12	0	5	31	137	3	0	0	164	236	239	475	75	242	35	8	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	156	135	36	7	0	5	18	48	3	2	0	267	365	430	795	163	379	31	12	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	22	20	6	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	300	364	400	764	100	346	5	5	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	132	17	3	0	2	16	43	5	1	4	129	248	197	445	68	169	28	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	125	28	5	0	4	23	34	5	1	4	224	366	360	726	136	270	22	15	333	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	292	57	11	2	5	15	125	4	2	1	195	244	298	542	103	310	39	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	317	283	78	17	3	8	24	88	4	2	1	276	341	442	783	166	363	28	8	341	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	360	59	12	0	5	31	137	3	0	0	164	236	239	475	75	245	35	8	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	346	72	17	0	7	45	99	3	0	0	208	305	318	622	110	269	25	11	286	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	178	154	43	10	0	5	20	49	4	2	0	279	376	442	818	162	380	28	11	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	178	146	50	12	0	7	28	36	4	2	0	342	461	568	1.029	226	417	20	16	452	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	155	133	17	3	0	2	16	43	5	1	4	128	248	195	444	68	169	28	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	295	57	11	2	5	15	125	4	2	1	193	244	295	539	102	299	39	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	359	59	12	0	5	31	137	3	0	0	164	236	240	476	75	242	35	8	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	178	152	43	10	0	5	20	49	4	2	0	283	376	447	824	164	375	28	11	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	295	57	11	2	5	15	125	4	2	1	193	244	295	539	102	299	39	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	396	359	59	12	0	5	31	137	3	0	0	164	236	240	476	75	242	35	8	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	178	152	43	10	0	5	20	49	4	2	0	283	376	447	824	164	375	28	11	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	336	301	59	12	1	6	28	98	4	3	1	199	274	309	582	110	268	29	8	265	65	-14	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	261	234	49	10	1	6	22	74	3	3	1	204	280	323	602	118	270	28	8	273	71	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	360	322	67	14	1	8	31	100	4	4	1	208	285	333	617	125	272	28	9	279	75	-11	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	428	383	80	16	1	10	37	117	5	5	1	212	288	341	629	129	274	27	9	284	78	-11	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	467	419	90	18	1	12	40	126	5	6	1	214	291	346	636	132	275	27	9	287	80	-11	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	489	439	94	19	1	12	42	131	5	6	1	215	292	349	641	133	275	27	9	289	81	-11	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	498	447	95	19	1	12	43	134	5	6	1	214	291	346	637	132	275	27	9	287	80	-12	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	500	448	95	19	1	12	43	136	5	5	1	212	289	341	630	129	274	27	9	284	79	-13	+1	-1	-3	+11	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	90	81	16	3	0	2	8	26	1	1	0	205	281	327	608	122	269	29	9	275	71	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	174	155	32	6	0	4	15	48	2	2	0	209	285	338	623	129	271	28	9	281	75	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	226	203	43	8	1	6	19	62	2	3	1	213	289	346	635	133	273	27	8	286	78	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	256	229	49	9	1	7	22	69	3	3	1	215	292	352	643	136	274	27	9	289	80	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	272	244	53	10	1	7	23	73	3	3	1	217	293	354	647	138	275	27	8	291	81	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	274	245	53	10	1	7	24	74	3	3	1	215	292	352	644	136	274	27	9	290	80	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	273	244	52	10	1	7	24	74	3	3	1	213	290	347	636	133	273	27	9	287	79	-7	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1565	1401	298	56	5	40	135	426	17	18	5	213	290	345	635	133	274	27	9	287	71	-40	+2	-0	-9	+34	-1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	124	23	2	17	56	177	7	7	2	213	289	347	637	134	274	27	9	287	71	-16	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4243	3804	780	158	9	93	356	1229	50	42	12	205	282	325	606	120	274	29	8	274	71	-85	+5	-1	-19	+69	-3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	119	24	1	14	55	188	8	6	2	204	282	321	603	117	273	29	8	274	71	-17	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.6	1,759	42	19	212	285	340	-11	+0	-0.7	-0.3
/162	664	16	7	-4.0	+0.0	-0.3	pk7: 0
#5Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3
#6Howie Schultz'43-'48 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	24	15	233*	271*	383*	-30	-2	-3.6	-3.6
/162	664	9	6	-11.8	-0.7	-1.4	pk7: -4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pablo Guerrero (OGILVIE)	21	30	30	40	45	197/272/306	109	268	4	2	29%	8%	65	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	31	39→40	40→50	43	157/245/233	76	238	7	8	35%	8%	39	-3.1	186/267/280	94	282	8	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	172/284/270	98	232	9	2	27%	12%	64	-0.5
✕Jose Meza 2024 · A	21	43→42	39→40	44→50	50	203/296/287	84	284	7	7	29%	10%	70	-0.8	197/287/295	98	292	9	10	33%	10%	69	-0.9	186/278/281	95	274	9	12	33%	9%	61	-1.1
✕Brian Sanchez 2017 · A	21	37	43→50	45	42	189/257/303	113	261	11	4	31%	7%	59	-1.7	184/237/278	94	281	8	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	133/186/201	68	218	4	0	39%	6%	6	-1.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Payton Henry 2018 · A	21	39→32	41→45	46→30	38	189/254/293	104	302	8	3	38%	7%	55	-2.0	185/251/286	101	320	10	2	43%	6%	53	-2.1	244/299/348	104	334	12	0	29%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Clint Coulter 2014 · A	21	41→43	43→50	45→40	42	205/271/311	106	279	10	5	29%	7%	65	-1.2	214/288/349	135	274	14	4	26%	7%	81	-0.1	200/266/338	137	245	16	4	25%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Sherten Apostel 2020 · A	21	38→35	47→45	45→40	45	195/272/324	128	273	15	4	33%	9%	70	-0.9	207/271/335	128	319	14	4	37%	7%	71	-0.8	208/271/342	134	323	16	0	38%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	37→41	42→45	45	39	187/239/300	113	260	9	5	31%	6%	51	-2.3	205/255/326	121	270	13	6	28%	6%	63	-1.4	198/253/321	123	239	15	9	24%	6%	58	-1.1
✕Nahum Hernandez 2010 · A	20	37	37→40	44→50	44	182/249/251	69	238	5	5	25%	6%	44	-2.8	218/293/305	87	277	6	10	22%	8%	72	-0.7	244/336/340	97	290	6	15	16%	10%	92	+0.2
✕Imeldo Diaz 2019 · A	21	44	41→40	46→45	41	215/264/307	91	269	9	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	231/265/311	80	306	5	5	25%	4%	61	-1.5	238/261/300	62	316	3	2	25%	2%	55	-0.6
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A	21	39	38→40	45→55	39	187/243/268	81	270	4	8	31%	6%	45	-2.7	194/262/265	71	270	4	15	28%	7%	51	-2.2	186/265/247	62	244	4	22	24%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Armando Sierra 2024 · A	20	42	39→40	42→40	47	204/271/287	83	267	6	4	25%	8%	60	-1.6	209/260/307	98	311	8	5	33%	6%	59	-1.6	193/225/303	110	284	12	0	36%	3%	44	-0.5
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	39	37→40	44→45	38	186/246/258	71	258	4	4	28%	5%	44	-2.8	223/288/309	86	301	6	6	26%	6%	71	-0.8	240/308/326	86	321	6	5	25%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Patrick Leonard 2014 · A	21	36→46	43→45	47→50	39	187/242/296	109	262	12	5	33%	6%	51	-2.2	218/280/339	121	314	11	9	32%	7%	75	-0.5	223/287/347	124	325	11	9	33%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Kevin Made 2024 · A	21	41→38	41→45	44→50	43	201/259/301	99	267	7	5	27%	6%	58	-1.7	203/265/276	73	275	5	10	26%	7%	55	-2.0	197/260/254	57	268	4	12	26%	6%	46	-1.6
✕Elio Prado 2024 · A	22	40→37	42→40	46→50	45	199/275/302	103	259	10	9	26%	7%	65	-1.2	190/255/279	89	267	8	14	30%	7%	52	-2.2	168/233/235	68	243	6	17	32%	7%	32	-1.7
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	49	206/292/311	105	279	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	222/303/310	88	316	7	6	29%	9%	78	-0.3	239/331/311	72	336	7	6	28%	11%	86	+0.1
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Jose Colmenares 2024 · A	21	39	44→30	43→30	44	199/262/313	114	245	11	5	24%	6%	63	-1.4	203/280/273	70	265	6	4	24%	8%	61	-1.5	185/273/222	37	237	4	1	22%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Cristian Santana 2024 · A	20	30→20	43→45	43→45	51	156/285/259	103	241	11	8	36%	12%	63	-1.4	160/286/290	130	238	16	6	37%	13%	70	-0.9	140/273/279	139	188	20	5	36%	13%	62	-0.8

Pablo Guerrero

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps