Heriberto Rincon

OF FCL Mets

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	18	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	167	.207/.307/.279	1	13	13	—	.136/.221/.163
2025	19	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	206	.314/.383/.438	2	34	47	—	.200/.262/.274
2026	20	A+/ROKNYM	163	.248/.286/.346	4	17	18	—	.175/.211/.247
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBNYM	273	.203/.253/.292	4	7	53	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBNYM	45	.203/.255/.304	1	1	61	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%54

Speed54

ISO53

Whiff%40

K%37

wRC+13

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAngel Aponte (age 21) · Granden Goetzman (age 21) · Kyle Nevin (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 84 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .251 / .290

PA84

HR1

K%28

BB%5

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	196	166	50	7	1	1	23	39	5	17	3	301	402	373	776	72	383	20	12	355	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	167	140	29	3	2	1	19	26	2	13	6	207	307	279	585	71	239	16	11	268	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	206	185	58	11	3	2	19	30	2	34	6	314	383	438	821	124	366	15	9	368	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	31	30	8	0	0	0	1	10	0	1	1	267	290	267	557		400	32	3	256	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Mets	—	132	123	30	3	0	4	3	32	4	16	2	244	285	366	650	122	292	24	2	288	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	196	173	35	4	1	0	16	49	5	17	3	202	289	237	526	35	268	25	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	167	147	20	2	1	0	14	32	2	13	6	136	221	163	384	27	160	19	8	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	206	190	38	7	2	1	14	37	2	34	6	200	262	274	536	74	242	18	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	31	30	6	0	0	0	1	13	0	1	1	200	226	200	426		363	42	3	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	132	124	21	2	0	3	2	46	4	16	2	169	208	258	466	89	224	35	2	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	196	173	35	4	1	0	16	49	5	17	3	202	289	237	526	35	278	25	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	—	196	166	50	7	1	1	23	39	5	17	3	301	402	373	776	72	383	20	12	355	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	167	147	20	2	1	0	14	32	2	13	6	136	221	163	384	27	168	19	8	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	—	167	140	29	3	2	1	19	26	2	13	6	207	307	279	585	71	239	16	11	268	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	206	190	38	7	2	1	14	37	2	34	6	200	262	274	536	74	243	18	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	—	206	185	58	11	3	2	19	30	2	34	6	314	383	438	821	124	366	15	9	368	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	163	155	27	2	0	3	2	59	4	17	3	174	205	245	450	71	253	36	1	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	163	153	38	3	0	4	4	42	4	17	3	248	286	346	632	98	312	26	2	282	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	196	173	35	4	1	0	16	49	5	17	3	202	289	237	526	35	268	25	8	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	167	149	20	2	1	0	14	32	2	13	6	134	221	161	382	27	160	19	8	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	206	188	38	7	2	1	14	37	2	34	6	202	262	277	539	74	242	18	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	163	156	27	2	0	3	2	59	4	17	3	173	205	244	449	71	250	36	1	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	167	149	20	2	1	0	14	32	2	13	6	134	221	161	382	27	160	19	8	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	—	206	188	38	7	2	1	14	37	2	34	6	202	262	277	539	74	242	18	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	163	156	27	2	0	3	2	59	4	17	3	173	205	244	449	71	250	36	1	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	273	254	52	8	2	4	14	77	3	7	1	203	253	292	546	89	273	28	5	247	53	-15	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYM	34%	131	122	25	4	1	2	7	36	1	3	1	209	261	312	573	103	275	27	5	258	61	-6	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYM	34%	45	43	8	1	0	1	2	12	0	1	0	203	255	304	559	101	266	27	4	252	61	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	45	43	8	1	0	1	2	12	0	1	0	186	222	279	501	93	233	27	4	252	39	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	621	115	14	0	14	29	173	0	14	0	185	222	275	497	90	233	27	4	252	39	-30	+3	-1	-4	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	947	866	162	22	6	7	57	237	15	86	19	187	249	251	500	64	246	25	6	226	39	-11	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	111	15	4	5	39	163	10	59	13	187	248	251	499	64	245	25	6	226	39	-33	+2	-1	-4	+14	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Mets · 132 PAwOBA .284 → .196 (−89)K% 24.2% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.24%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	34.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.27%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	1.40%
HBP% /PA	3.03%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	2.17%
Singles /BIP	25.27%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.966	×0.995	19.92%
Doubles /BIP	3.30%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.966	×0.995	2.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.966	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.40%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	3.41%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .284 → .196; ISO .122 → .083; BABIP .292 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 31 PAwOBA .249 → .192 (−58)K% 32.3% → 42.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.26%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	42.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.042	2.02%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷1.000	×0.870	—	×1.042	36.26%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .249 → .192; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .400 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Mets Orange · 206 PAwOBA .359 → .237 (−122)K% 14.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.56%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	18.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.22%	÷0.971	×0.700	—	×0.995	6.62%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.68%
Singles /BIP	27.10%	÷1.012	×0.680	×1.015	×0.995	18.38%
Doubles /BIP	7.10%	÷0.944	×0.600	×1.015	×0.995	4.56%
Triples /BIP	1.94%	÷1.057	×0.600	×1.015	×0.995	1.11%
Home runs /BIP	1.29%	÷0.873	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.69%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 102, 2B 89, 3B 111, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .359 → .237; ISO .124 → .073; BABIP .366 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Mets Orange · 167 PAwOBA .268 → .187 (−81)K% 15.6% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.57%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	19.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.38%	÷0.950	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.44%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.84%
Singles /BIP	20.18%	÷0.953	×0.680	×0.958	×1.008	13.90%
Doubles /BIP	2.63%	÷1.064	×0.600	×0.958	×1.008	1.43%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷0.921	×0.600	×0.958	×1.008	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	0.88%	÷0.996	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.42%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 113, 3B 84, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .268 → .187; ISO .071 → .042; BABIP .239 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Mets Orange · 196 PAwOBA .350 → .242 (−108)K% 19.9% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.90%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	24.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.73%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×1.022	7.98%
HBP% /PA	2.55%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.83%
Singles /BIP	32.28%	÷1.020	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	23.12%
Doubles /BIP	5.51%	÷1.012	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	3.51%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷0.949	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	0.79%	÷1.084	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.35%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 90, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .350 → .242; ISO .072 → .043; BABIP .383 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Heriberto Rincon (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	201/251/290	89	273	1	2	28%	5%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Aponte 2021 · A	21	42	39→40	54→55	41	203/261/292	89	279	6	17	28%	6%	57	-1.8	206/263/297	91	296	7	20	31%	5%	59	-1.7	189/245/275	85	274	8	24	32%	5%	45	-1.0
✕Granden Goetzman 2014 · A	21	39→45	39→45	53→55	40	190/240/276	86	252	7	15	27%	5%	45	-2.7	211/247/307	96	298	7	14	31%	4%	54	-2.0	212/242/319	107	281	7	25	27%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→42	42→50	54→55	35	186/247/286	100	284	10	12	37%	5%	51	-2.2	197/249/316	119	284	14	16	34%	5%	59	-1.7	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Brandon Dailey 2013 · A	21	42	40→45	55	37	203/249/301	98	294	7	12	32%	5%	54	-2.0	195/248/297	102	288	9	6	34%	6%	53	-2.1	144/199/220	76	199	6	0	30%	5%	17	-1.1
✕Miguel Ugueto 2024 · A	21	42	38→45	52→55	35	205/234/289	84	287	5	16	30%	4%	45	-2.7	208/240/299	91	271	6	17	25%	3%	49	-2.4	207/240/303	96	262	6	22	23%	3%	49	-1.1
✕Luis Tejada 2014 · A	21	41→44	36→45	52→50	38	195/236/262	67	270	3	13	28%	4%	40	-3.1	210/252/296	86	278	7	9	26%	4%	54	-2.0	216/264/322	106	271	10	7	23%	5%	62	-0.8
✕Sergio Garcia 2012 · AAA	21	38	40→45	54→60	41	190/248/278	87	267	9	22	31%	7%	49	-2.4	218/260/323	105	307	10	27	31%	4%	63	-1.3	225/251/334	108	298	10	17	28%	3%	59	-0.7
✕Anthony Jimenez 2017 · A	21	44	37→45	55	42	207/258/286	79	262	3	20	22%	5%	54	-2.0	216/260/316	100	323	8	18	34%	4%	62	-1.4	207/253/310	103	316	9	19	36%	4%	55	-1.0
✕Jeffrey Baez 2015 · A	21	41→46	42→50	54→60	36	202/249/311	109	299	10	19	35%	5%	57	-1.8	208/251/314	106	273	10	23	27%	5%	57	-1.8	195/248/328	132	258	16	15	30%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Justin Trapp 2012 · A	21	41→45	39→45	54→55	39	199/253/281	82	292	6	21	33%	6%	51	-2.2	214/269/314	100	296	9	16	29%	6%	65	-1.2	214/268/307	93	290	8	15	28%	5%	60	-1.3
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Dalvy Rosario 2021 · A	21	40→43	38→40	53→55	41	195/247/272	77	273	5	14	29%	6%	47	-2.6	199/252/282	83	286	7	17	31%	6%	51	-2.3	191/241/271	81	274	8	21	32%	5%	43	-2.0
✕David Paisano 2009 · A	21	39→48	37→40	54→50	39	189/249/258	69	267	4	15	29%	5%	45	-2.7	216/262/295	79	298	4	10	28%	4%	57	-1.8	217/259/291	74	296	4	8	27%	4%	52	-1.8
✕Jeudy Valdez 2010 · A	21	41→46	38→50	52→55	39	197/249/280	83	286	4	14	31%	6%	49	-2.4	206/247/323	117	277	11	18	29%	5%	59	-1.7	212/249/346	134	278	13	17	28%	3%	62	-1.2
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→39	40	52→50	42	194/257/287	92	271	7	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/277/282	78	309	4	8	32%	9%	61	-1.5	194/278/266	72	301	3	7	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Maximo Rivera 2014 · A	21	42	37→40	53→60	44	203/260/274	71	255	5	21	22%	6%	52	-2.2	209/259/277	68	293	4	10	28%	6%	52	-2.2	200/243/246	47	278	3	7	28%	5%	35	-0.9
✕Lane Adams 2011 · A	21	43→45	37→50	57→60	40	204/256/278	73	298	4	14	31%	6%	51	-2.3	212/261/312	100	298	8	14	30%	6%	61	-1.5	224/277/350	126	304	14	36	30%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Mason Auer 2022 · A	21	46→47	37→45	55→60	44	214/278/291	77	298	4	19	28%	7%	63	-1.3	205/265/328	123	299	11	31	33%	6%	67	-1.1	189/250/312	123	278	11	36	35%	6%	55	-1.5