Luis Tejada
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ASD | 276 | .293/.337/.394 | 4 | 8 | 61 | — | .243/.279/.323 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA/A+/ASD | 469 | .254/.334/.420 | 11 | 8 | 75 | — | .222/.282/.373 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAMobile BayBea… | 187 | .199/.263/.281 | 3 | 2 | 22 | — | .171/.220/.246 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 221 | 189 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 50 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 228 | 333 | 280 | 614 | 53 | 305 | 23 | 10 | 289 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 262 | 217 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 60 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 276 | 394 | 461 | 855 | 184 | 344 | 23 | 13 | 379 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres | — | 199 | 181 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 293 | 354 | 370 | 724 | 77 | 373 | 20 | 8 | 327 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 454 | 423 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 92 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 227 | 268 | 305 | 573 | 78 | 282 | 20 | 4 | 256 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 45 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 244 | 238 | 483 | 48 | 267 | 27 | 4 | 225 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 175 | 158 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 312 | 354 | 667 | 108 | 300 | 21 | 5 | 300 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 276 | 259 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 293 | 337 | 394 | 731 | 100 | 341 | 16 | 5 | 329 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 222 | 195 | 50 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 338 | 415 | 753 | 159 | 305 | 18 | 10 | 333 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 180 | 157 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 315 | 382 | 697 | 159 | 223 | 13 | 9 | 312 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 67 | 62 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 323 | 373 | 532 | 905 | 210 | 388 | 18 | 7 | 396 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 187 | 171 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 199 | 263 | 281 | 544 | 82 | 238 | 20 | 7 | 249 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 221 | 197 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 142 | 228 | 173 | 401 | 30 | 193 | 28 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 262 | 228 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 73 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 167 | 266 | 259 | 525 | 92 | 221 | 28 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres | — | 199 | 187 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 263 | 273 | 535 | 53 | 311 | 29 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 454 | 429 | 81 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 127 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 189 | 221 | 252 | 473 | 63 | 250 | 28 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 45 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 200 | 209 | 409 | 47 | 245 | 36 | 2 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 175 | 161 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 249 | 267 | 516 | 75 | 255 | 29 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 276 | 263 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 61 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 243 | 279 | 323 | 602 | 80 | 302 | 22 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 222 | 202 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 233 | 292 | 381 | 673 | 149 | 285 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 180 | 162 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 270 | 346 | 615 | 148 | 200 | 17 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 67 | 64 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 284 | 422 | 705 | 172 | 316 | 25 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 187 | 175 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 171 | 220 | 246 | 466 | 74 | 209 | 25 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 221 | 197 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 142 | 228 | 173 | 401 | 30 | 203 | 28 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 221 | 189 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 50 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 228 | 333 | 280 | 614 | 53 | 305 | 23 | 10 | 289 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 262 | 228 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 73 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 167 | 266 | 259 | 525 | 92 | 222 | 28 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 262 | 217 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 60 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 276 | 394 | 461 | 855 | 184 | 344 | 23 | 13 | 379 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres | — | 199 | 187 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 263 | 273 | 535 | 53 | 315 | 29 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Padres | — | 199 | 181 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 293 | 354 | 370 | 724 | 77 | 373 | 20 | 8 | 327 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 454 | 429 | 81 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 127 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 189 | 221 | 252 | 473 | 63 | 260 | 28 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 454 | 423 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 92 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 227 | 268 | 305 | 573 | 78 | 282 | 20 | 4 | 256 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 203 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 67 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 243 | 256 | 499 | 69 | 267 | 30 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 220 | 200 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 298 | 330 | 628 | 95 | 293 | 22 | 5 | 285 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 276 | 263 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 61 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 243 | 279 | 323 | 602 | 80 | 307 | 22 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 276 | 259 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 293 | 337 | 394 | 731 | 100 | 341 | 16 | 5 | 329 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 469 | 429 | 95 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 96 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 221 | 280 | 366 | 646 | 145 | 261 | 20 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 469 | 414 | 105 | 26 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 76 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 254 | 334 | 420 | 754 | 167 | 285 | 16 | 9 | 334 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 187 | 175 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 171 | 220 | 246 | 466 | 74 | 214 | 25 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Mobile BayBears | — | 187 | 171 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 199 | 263 | 281 | 544 | 82 | 238 | 20 | 7 | 249 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 221 | 197 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 142 | 228 | 173 | 401 | 30 | 193 | 28 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 262 | 229 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 73 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 166 | 266 | 258 | 524 | 92 | 221 | 28 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres | — | 199 | 186 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 220 | 263 | 274 | 537 | 54 | 311 | 29 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 454 | 433 | 81 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 127 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 187 | 221 | 249 | 471 | 62 | 250 | 28 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 203 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 67 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 243 | 256 | 499 | 69 | 253 | 30 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 276 | 261 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 61 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 245 | 279 | 326 | 605 | 80 | 302 | 22 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 469 | 431 | 95 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 96 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 220 | 280 | 364 | 644 | 144 | 257 | 20 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 187 | 174 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 172 | 220 | 247 | 468 | 75 | 209 | 25 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2288 | 2111 | 415 | 72 | 15 | 24 | 117 | 589 | 39 | 67 | 31 | 197 | 252 | 279 | 531 | 82 | 259 | 26 | 5 | 232 | 43 | -155 | +1 | +0 | -41 | +50 | -14.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 117 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 167 | 11 | 19 | 9 | 195 | 250 | 277 | 527 | 82 | 256 | 26 | 5 | 232 | 43 | -44 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -4.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAMobile BayBears · 187 PAwOBA .243 → .200 (−43)K% 20.3% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.32% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷0.986 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.30% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 18.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.204 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 1.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | ×0.989 | ×0.998 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷0.896 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.01% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 104, 2B 141, 3B 86, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .243 → .200; ISO .082 → .069; BABIP .238 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AASan Antonio Missions · 222 PAwOBA .324 → .289 (−35)K% 18.5% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.47% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.46% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.48% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 18.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.44% | ÷0.951 | ×0.840 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 7.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 2.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷0.933 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .324 → .289; ISO .159 → .149; BABIP .305 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 180 PAwOBA .307 → .265 (−42)K% 12.8% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.78% | ÷1.016 | ×1.340 | — | — | 16.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.16% | ÷0.999 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 15.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.036 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.969 | ×0.760 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.925 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 4.40% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 100, 2B 107, 3B 94, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .307 → .265; ISO .159 → .149; BABIP .223 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 67 PAwOBA .380 → .290 (−90)K% 17.9% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.91% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.97% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×0.980 | 17.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×0.980 | 11.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×0.980 | 1.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.888 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.77% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 109, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .380 → .290; ISO .210 → .156; BABIP .388 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 276 PAwOBA .320 → .259 (−61)K% 15.9% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.94% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.71% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 3.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.44% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.990 | 24.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.58% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×0.990 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.029 | ×0.990 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.86% | ÷0.995 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.48% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 95, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .320 → .259; ISO .100 → .077; BABIP .341 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 175 PAwOBA .294 → .225 (−69)K% 20.6% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.57% | ÷0.958 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.14% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.77% | ÷1.032 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | — | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.080 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | — | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.025 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | — | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷1.088 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.81% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 106, 2B 116, 3B 105, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .294 → .225; ISO .108 → .076; BABIP .300 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 45 PAwOBA .219 → .177 (−42)K% 26.7% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.013 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.44% | ÷0.955 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 18.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.963 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.012 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.875 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 96, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 103, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .219 → .177; ISO .048 → .037; BABIP .267 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 454 PAwOBA .250 → .203 (−47)K% 20.3% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.26% | ÷0.986 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.96% | ÷0.951 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.45% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 19.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.204 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 4.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷0.956 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.015 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.907 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 105, 2B 141, 3B 91, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .250 → .203; ISO .078 → .059; BABIP .282 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).