Dalvy Rosario
OF Pensacola Blue Wahoos| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AA/A+MIA | 422 | .222/.289/.311 | 7 | 20 | 30 | — | .181/.234/.255 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 271 | .192/.241/.280 | 3 | 14 | 19 | — | .178/.207/.250 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AAMIA | 198 | .176/.249/.290 | 5 | 6 | 13 | — | .154/.202/.247 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBMIA | 3 | .180/.237/.285 | 0 | 0 | 51 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBMIA | 45 | .181/.239/.286 | 1 | 1 | 52 | -0.2 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | — | 279 | 249 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 64 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 257 | 320 | 373 | 693 | 116 | 324 | 23 | 8 | 305 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 343 | 299 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 75 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 224 | 312 | 308 | 619 | 84 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 282 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 25 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 381 | 458 | 524 | 982 | 143 | 500 | 24 | 12 | 417 | 155 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 467 | 427 | 107 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 117 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 251 | 301 | 379 | 681 | 129 | 318 | 25 | 5 | 299 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 208 | 184 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 50 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 223 | 299 | 337 | 636 | 114 | 275 | 24 | 8 | 285 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 214 | 195 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 68 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 221 | 280 | 287 | 567 | 67 | 320 | 32 | 7 | 257 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 64 | 62 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 250 | 306 | 556 | 81 | 350 | 34 | 3 | 249 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 131 | 122 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 236 | 262 | 499 | 57 | 279 | 27 | 4 | 220 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 42 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 139 | 244 | 278 | 522 | 139 | 200 | 36 | 12 | 237 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 34 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 133 | 235 | 300 | 535 | 167 | 200 | 41 | 12 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 64 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 226 | 286 | 512 | 143 | 167 | 30 | 9 | 226 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 134 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 192 | 260 | 292 | 551 | 100 | 267 | 32 | 8 | 247 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 279 | 255 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 78 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 153 | 206 | 212 | 418 | 59 | 204 | 28 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 343 | 309 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 100 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 188 | 255 | 256 | 511 | 68 | 255 | 29 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 25 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 364 | 417 | 500 | 917 | 136 | 477 | 28 | 8 | 397 | 155 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 467 | 433 | 90 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 147 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 208 | 251 | 314 | 565 | 106 | 276 | 31 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 208 | 189 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 62 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 190 | 250 | 286 | 536 | 95 | 244 | 30 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 214 | 199 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 86 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 171 | 218 | 226 | 444 | 55 | 272 | 40 | 5 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 64 | 63 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 203 | 254 | 457 | 63 | 328 | 41 | 2 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 131 | 124 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 185 | 205 | 242 | 447 | 56 | 255 | 32 | 2 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 42 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 135 | 220 | 270 | 490 | 135 | 170 | 45 | 10 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 64 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 194 | 276 | 469 | 138 | 152 | 36 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 134 | 124 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 161 | 206 | 234 | 440 | 73 | 236 | 40 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 279 | 255 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 78 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 153 | 206 | 212 | 418 | 59 | 207 | 28 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Marlins | — | 279 | 249 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 64 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 257 | 320 | 373 | 693 | 116 | 324 | 23 | 8 | 305 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 343 | 309 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 100 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 188 | 255 | 256 | 511 | 68 | 263 | 29 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 343 | 299 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 75 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 224 | 312 | 308 | 619 | 84 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 282 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 455 | 97 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 155 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 213 | 257 | 321 | 578 | 108 | 297 | 32 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 492 | 448 | 115 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 123 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 257 | 309 | 386 | 695 | 129 | 327 | 25 | 5 | 305 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 389 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 148 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 180 | 231 | 254 | 486 | 75 | 267 | 35 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 422 | 379 | 84 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 118 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 222 | 289 | 311 | 601 | 90 | 297 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 271 | 256 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 172 | 203 | 234 | 437 | 62 | 271 | 37 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 271 | 250 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 87 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 192 | 241 | 280 | 521 | 88 | 280 | 32 | 6 | 233 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 182 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 76 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 148 | 197 | 242 | 439 | 93 | 221 | 38 | 6 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 198 | 176 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 176 | 249 | 290 | 538 | 114 | 234 | 31 | 9 | 241 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 279 | 260 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 78 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 150 | 206 | 208 | 414 | 58 | 204 | 28 | 6 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 343 | 312 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 100 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 186 | 255 | 253 | 508 | 67 | 255 | 29 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 462 | 97 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 155 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 210 | 257 | 316 | 573 | 106 | 286 | 32 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 393 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 148 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 178 | 231 | 252 | 483 | 74 | 258 | 35 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 271 | 259 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 170 | 203 | 232 | 435 | 62 | 260 | 37 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 185 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 76 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 146 | 197 | 238 | 435 | 92 | 209 | 38 | 6 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 271 | 259 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 100 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 170 | 203 | 232 | 435 | 62 | 260 | 37 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 185 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 76 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 146 | 197 | 238 | 435 | 92 | 209 | 38 | 6 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 2% | 248 | 229 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 74 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 243 | 298 | 541 | 112 | 247 | 30 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -14 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 237 | 285 | 522 | 105 | 239 | 33 | 0 | 236 | 51 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 27% | 169 | 155 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 50 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 187 | 245 | 299 | 544 | 112 | 248 | 30 | 7 | 245 | 52 | -10 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 27% | 45 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 239 | 286 | 525 | 105 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 237 | 52 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 222 | 262 | 484 | 95 | 214 | 29 | 7 | 237 | 34 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 100 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 188 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 165 | 220 | 257 | 477 | 92 | 212 | 29 | 7 | 237 | 34 | -37 | +3 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2305 | 2122 | 388 | 59 | 13 | 32 | 120 | 746 | 20 | 119 | 26 | 183 | 233 | 268 | 502 | 85 | 260 | 32 | 5 | 219 | 34 | -17 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +6 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 110 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 34 | 210 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 184 | 235 | 271 | 506 | 87 | 262 | 32 | 5 | 219 | 34 | -37 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +14 | -2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 134 PAwOBA .243 → .190 (−53)K% 32.1% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.09% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 19.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 3.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.880 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.82% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .243 → .190; ISO .100 → .075; BABIP .267 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 64 PAwOBA .224 → .182 (−42)K% 29.7% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.69% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 12.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 2.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .224 → .182; ISO .143 → .116; BABIP .167 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 131 PAwOBA .215 → .187 (−28)K% 27.5% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.48% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.82% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 2.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.42% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 22.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.034 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 2.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.909 | ×0.880 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.88% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .215 → .187; ISO .057 → .048; BABIP .279 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 64 PAwOBA .243 → .202 (−41)K% 34.4% → 41.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.38% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.12% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 2.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 21.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 11.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .202; ISO .081 → .065; BABIP .350 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 42 PAwOBA .231 → .176 (−55)K% 35.7% → 44.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 44.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷0.998 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 8.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.962 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 7.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.03% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .231 → .176; ISO .139 → .109; BABIP .200 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 214 PAwOBA .254 → .196 (−58)K% 31.8% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.78% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.56% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 24.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.94% | ÷1.113 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.016 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.817 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 99, 2B 123, 3B 103, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .254 → .196; ISO .067 → .051; BABIP .320 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 208 PAwOBA .281 → .230 (−51)K% 24.0% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.04% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 19.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.81% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .281 → .230; ISO .114 → .092; BABIP .275 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 467 PAwOBA .295 → .243 (−53)K% 25.1% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.05% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.14% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×1.012 | 21.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.81% | ÷0.950 | ×0.810 | ×0.963 | ×1.012 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.068 | ×0.850 | ×0.963 | ×1.012 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.90% | ÷0.885 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 114, K 102, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .295 → .243; ISO .129 → .106; BABIP .318 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .