Miguel Ugueto
RF Springfield Cardinals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+BOS | 249 | .242/.280/.377 | 4 | 7 | 36 | — | .191/.218/.294 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 313 | .274/.312/.360 | 3 | 15 | 77 | — | .248/.273/.316 |
| 2026 | 23 | AASTL | 334 | .225/.282/.359 | 5 | 24 | 51 | — | .200/.248/.313 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBSTL | 4 | .218/.254/.316 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 73 | .221/.260/.328 | 1 | 3 | 63 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 135 | 127 | 42 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 331 | 370 | 528 | 898 | 197 | 404 | 19 | 5 | 393 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 97 | 90 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 311 | 340 | 411 | 752 | 100 | 368 | 18 | 4 | 325 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 205 | 194 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 216 | 251 | 304 | 555 | 88 | 278 | 24 | 4 | 248 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 231 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 242 | 280 | 377 | 656 | 134 | 284 | 20 | 4 | 285 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 199 | 189 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 254 | 281 | 339 | 619 | 85 | 279 | 13 | 3 | 274 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 56 | 312 | 10 | 0 | 319 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 26 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 269 | 320 | 589 | 80 | 316 | 23 | 4 | 265 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 68 | 60 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 350 | 409 | 450 | 859 | 100 | 417 | 19 | 6 | 376 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 334 | 306 | 69 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 66 | 9 | 24 | 6 | 225 | 282 | 359 | 641 | 134 | 268 | 20 | 4 | 285 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 135 | 130 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 223 | 252 | 354 | 606 | 131 | 301 | 28 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 97 | 91 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 298 | 363 | 661 | 88 | 343 | 26 | 3 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 205 | 197 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 67 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 178 | 202 | 254 | 456 | 76 | 242 | 33 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 235 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 68 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 191 | 218 | 294 | 512 | 102 | 237 | 27 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 199 | 191 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 251 | 270 | 319 | 590 | 68 | 284 | 16 | 2 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 56 | 274 | 15 | 0 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 26 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 231 | 280 | 511 | 80 | 289 | 31 | 4 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 334 | 310 | 62 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 80 | 9 | 24 | 6 | 200 | 248 | 313 | 561 | 113 | 249 | 24 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 135 | 130 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 223 | 252 | 354 | 606 | 131 | 300 | 28 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 135 | 127 | 42 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 331 | 370 | 528 | 898 | 197 | 404 | 19 | 5 | 393 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 97 | 91 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 275 | 298 | 363 | 661 | 88 | 362 | 26 | 3 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 97 | 90 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 311 | 340 | 411 | 752 | 100 | 368 | 18 | 4 | 325 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 205 | 197 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 67 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 178 | 202 | 254 | 456 | 76 | 254 | 33 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 205 | 194 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 216 | 251 | 304 | 555 | 88 | 278 | 24 | 4 | 248 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 235 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 68 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 191 | 218 | 294 | 512 | 102 | 247 | 27 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 231 | 56 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 242 | 280 | 377 | 656 | 134 | 284 | 20 | 4 | 285 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 313 | 297 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 246 | 273 | 316 | 589 | 71 | 287 | 17 | 2 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 313 | 292 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 274 | 312 | 360 | 671 | 86 | 310 | 15 | 4 | 298 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 334 | 310 | 62 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 80 | 9 | 24 | 6 | 200 | 248 | 313 | 561 | 113 | 252 | 24 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 334 | 306 | 69 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 66 | 9 | 24 | 6 | 225 | 282 | 359 | 641 | 134 | 268 | 20 | 4 | 285 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 135 | 129 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 225 | 252 | 357 | 608 | 132 | 301 | 28 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 97 | 94 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 266 | 298 | 351 | 649 | 85 | 343 | 26 | 3 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 205 | 197 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 67 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 178 | 202 | 254 | 456 | 76 | 242 | 33 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 239 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 68 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 188 | 218 | 289 | 507 | 100 | 237 | 27 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 313 | 299 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 244 | 273 | 314 | 587 | 70 | 284 | 17 | 2 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 334 | 311 | 62 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 80 | 9 | 24 | 6 | 199 | 248 | 312 | 560 | 113 | 249 | 24 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 239 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 68 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 188 | 218 | 289 | 507 | 100 | 237 | 27 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 313 | 299 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 244 | 273 | 314 | 587 | 70 | 284 | 17 | 2 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 334 | 311 | 62 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 80 | 9 | 24 | 6 | 199 | 248 | 312 | 560 | 113 | 249 | 24 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 2% | 380 | 360 | 78 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 216 | 253 | 315 | 568 | 99 | 274 | 23 | 3 | 254 | 58 | -19 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 254 | 316 | 571 | 99 | 276 | 25 | 0 | 255 | 58 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 31% | 236 | 222 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 220 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 108 | 275 | 23 | 3 | 261 | 63 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 31% | 73 | 70 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 260 | 328 | 588 | 107 | 278 | 23 | 3 | 262 | 63 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 73 | 70 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 260 | 357 | 617 | 129 | 288 | 23 | 3 | 262 | 51 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 623 | 143 | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 151 | 9 | 27 | 9 | 230 | 262 | 360 | 621 | 130 | 289 | 23 | 3 | 262 | 51 | -29 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1774 | 1676 | 360 | 82 | 13 | 18 | 49 | 434 | 25 | 85 | 30 | 215 | 248 | 311 | 559 | 97 | 274 | 24 | 3 | 244 | 51 | -21 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +10 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 614 | 133 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 159 | 9 | 31 | 11 | 217 | 250 | 316 | 566 | 99 | 276 | 24 | 3 | 244 | 51 | -31 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 334 PAwOBA .280 → .244 (−36)K% 19.8% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.69% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 16.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.69% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .280 → .244; ISO .134 → .114; BABIP .268 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 199 PAwOBA .270 → .262 (−8)K% 12.6% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.56% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.02% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.56% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×1.048 | ×1.027 | 23.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | ×1.048 | ×1.027 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.048 | ×1.027 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.105 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.91% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .270 → .262; ISO .085 → .077; BABIP .279 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 26 PAwOBA .258 → .210 (−48)K% 23.1% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.85% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 2.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 19.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 9.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .258 → .210; ISO .080 → .066; BABIP .316 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 20 PAwOBA .310 → .260 (−50)K% 10.0% → 13.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.951 | ×1.270 | — | — | 13.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 10.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 7.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 22.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.857 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .310 → .260; ISO .056 → .041; BABIP .312 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greenville Drive · 249 PAwOBA .284 → .222 (−62)K% 20.1% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.08% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.02% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 2.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.89% | ÷1.013 | ×0.870 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 17.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.18% | ÷1.037 | ×0.780 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 5.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.66% | ÷0.927 | ×0.850 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷1.043 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .284 → .222; ISO .134 → .106; BABIP .284 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 205 PAwOBA .243 → .191 (−53)K% 24.4% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.39% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.90% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 2.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 18.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .243 → .191; ISO .088 → .070; BABIP .278 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 97 PAwOBA .326 → .283 (−43)K% 17.5% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.53% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.12% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 3.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.40% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.030 | 25.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.030 | 8.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.030 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .326 → .283; ISO .100 → .086; BABIP .368 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 135 PAwOBA .382 → .259 (−124)K% 19.3% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.26% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.19% | ÷0.997 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 3.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.77% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.85% | ÷1.029 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 9.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.98% | ÷0.951 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷0.951 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.64% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 90, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .382 → .259; ISO .197 → .129; BABIP .404 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .