Wilmer Lugo — OGILVIE

Wilmer Lugo P FCL Mets

Age 20 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139147vR 155

ERA6.43

FIP6.43

K%19.4%

BB%23.7%

K-BB%-4.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	7	32	168	37	28	0	64%	2.9	15.0%	20.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	3.94	4.47	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	7	32	168	37	28	0	64%	2.9	15.0%	20.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	3.94	4.47	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	11	7	32	168	37	28	0	64%	2.9	22.0%	16.7%	5.4%	0.0%	3.94	3.41	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	9	0	11	61	8	19	0	0%	1.2	8.9%	38.9%	-30.0%	0.0%	9.00	7.28	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	9	0	11	61	8	19	0	0%	1.2	8.9%	38.9%	-30.0%	0.0%	9.00	7.28	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	9	0	11	61	8	19	0	0%	1.2	13.1%	31.1%	-18.0%	0.0%	9.00	6.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	0	12	66	13	15	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	23.3%	-8.3%	2.4%	9.49	6.09	—
YTD	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	0	12	66	13	15	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	23.3%	-8.3%	2.4%	9.49	6.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	NYM	11	0	12	59	13	11	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	18.6%	3.4%	1.7%	7.71	4.53	—
2026	20	A RAW	NYM	1	0	1	7	0	4	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	57.1%	-57.1%	0.0%	40.50	10.34	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYM	29	0	30	128	26	25	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	19.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.96	5.79	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYM	14	0	15	63	13	12	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	19.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.96	5.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	13	12	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	19.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.96	5.41	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	162	27	0%	1.1	20.4%	19.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.96	5.41	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		32	7	55	295	40	74	2	22%	1.7	13.7%	25.1%	-11.4%	0.5%	6.18	5.42	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	25	200	1066	146	268	6	22%	1.7	13.7%	25.1%	-11.4%	0.5%	6.18	5.42	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilmer Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.43	19.4%	23.7%	2.9%	—	5.79	20.4%	0.8%	30	-0.64	—	—	—
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	83
Starlin Savinon L 2023 · 7.01 FIP	18	SU	7.01	14.9%	27.3%	3.1%	.327	3.87	17.2%	2.4%	109	-3.14	3.67	128	82
Jayvien Sandridge L 2019 · 6.78 FIP	20	SU	6.78	19.0%	23.9%	4.1%	.324	3.61	27.9%	5.2%	41	-3.17	3.34	223	81
Gabriel Cotto L 2019 · 5.98 FIP	19	SW	5.98	11.3%	18.4%	2.8%	.309	5.15	18.5%	2.4%	113	-0.83	5.02	236	76
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	76
Edison Suriel L 2018 · 6.39 FIP	19	SU	6.39	16.8%	20.5%	3.8%	.341	2.16	21.4%	14.6%	17	-4.23	2.16	159	75
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	75
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	74
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	74
Eduardo Solano L 2017 · 5.64 FIP	20	SU	5.64	12.5%	23.9%	1.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	100	74
Alex Robinson L 2015 · 5.75 FIP	20	SU	5.75	16.2%	31.7%	0.0%	.312	4.45	23.4%	5.2%	123	-1.30	3.69	135	74
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	73
Andre Davis L 2015 · 6.34 FIP	21	SU	6.34	13.6%	16.7%	4.2%	.384	4.43	17.5%	9.9%	127	-1.91	4.14	154	73
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	72
Jahir Varela L 2018 · 6.03 FIP	20	SU	6.03	11.5%	23.5%	1.7%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	104	72
Adrian Almeida L 2015 · 5.36 FIP	20	SU	5.36	13.9%	27.1%	0.0%	.271	5.06	18.9%	-1.8%	113	-0.30	4.27	188	71
Ronald Parra L 2019 · 6.18 FIP	20	SU	6.18	15.9%	34.9%	0.0%	.222	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	114	70
Joe Jacques L 2018 · 5.61 FIP	23	SU	5.61	12.1%	22.2%	1.3%	.265	4.00	18.7%	6.9%	113	-1.61	2.89	356	69
Carlos Sarmiento L 2023 · 6.86 FIP	19	SU	6.86	15.4%	25.3%	3.4%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	100	69
Alexander Beltre L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	20	SW	6.04	15.5%	15.2%	4.2%	.244	4.75	15.1%	3.5%	12	-1.29	2.75	106	68