Gerardo Rodriguez
C Greenville Drive| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A/ROK2 orgs | 92 | .293/.424/.347 | 1 | 3 | 78 | — | .243/.337/.294 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROK2 orgs | 256 | .285/.351/.421 | 3 | 8 | 55 | — | .209/.259/.312 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+BOS | 400 | .255/.336/.363 | 8 | 1 | 57 | — | .212/.268/.299 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBBOS | 1 | .243/.295/.350 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 22 | MLBBOS | 158 | .247/.301/.363 | 3 | 2 | 83 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 23 | MLBBOS | 249 | .250/.305/.372 | 5 | 3 | 86 | 0.6 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 136 | 127 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 346 | 390 | 488 | 878 | 142 | 369 | 10 | 6 | 390 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 22 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 381 | 409 | 381 | 790 | 381 | 0 | 5 | 361 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 70 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 259 | 429 | 333 | 762 | 74 | 317 | 17 | 23 | 363 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 86 | 74 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 297 | 381 | 500 | 881 | 203 | 317 | 15 | 10 | 380 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 170 | 154 | 43 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 279 | 335 | 383 | 718 | 104 | 321 | 14 | 6 | 319 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 400 | 353 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 57 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 336 | 363 | 698 | 108 | 281 | 14 | 9 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 136 | 130 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 223 | 257 | 315 | 573 | 92 | 240 | 12 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 22 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 381 | 409 | 381 | 790 | 370 | 0 | 5 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 70 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 314 | 267 | 581 | 67 | 259 | 24 | 14 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 86 | 77 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 310 | 429 | 738 | 182 | 273 | 21 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 170 | 158 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 190 | 234 | 253 | 487 | 63 | 232 | 20 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 400 | 368 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 268 | 299 | 567 | 87 | 240 | 19 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 136 | 130 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 223 | 257 | 315 | 573 | 92 | 241 | 12 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 136 | 127 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 346 | 390 | 488 | 878 | 142 | 369 | 10 | 6 | 390 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 92 | 81 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 337 | 296 | 633 | 49 | 302 | 18 | 12 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 92 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 293 | 424 | 347 | 771 | 53 | 339 | 13 | 18 | 362 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 234 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 316 | 583 | 103 | 255 | 20 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 256 | 228 | 65 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 36 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 285 | 351 | 421 | 772 | 136 | 320 | 14 | 7 | 339 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 400 | 368 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 268 | 299 | 567 | 87 | 245 | 19 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 400 | 353 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 57 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 336 | 363 | 698 | 108 | 281 | 14 | 9 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 136 | 129 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 257 | 318 | 575 | 93 | 240 | 12 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 92 | 81 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 337 | 296 | 633 | 49 | 286 | 18 | 12 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 237 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 211 | 267 | 312 | 579 | 101 | 246 | 20 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 400 | 369 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 268 | 298 | 566 | 87 | 240 | 19 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 92 | 81 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 337 | 296 | 633 | 49 | 286 | 18 | 12 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 237 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 211 | 267 | 312 | 579 | 101 | 246 | 20 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 400 | 369 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 75 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 268 | 298 | 566 | 87 | 240 | 19 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | BOS | 0% | 510 | 470 | 112 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 90 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 289 | 341 | 630 | 104 | 273 | 18 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +9 | +11 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | BOS | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 295 | 350 | 645 | 107 | 281 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 78 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | BOS | 43% | 364 | 335 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 241 | 295 | 354 | 649 | 113 | 274 | 17 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 61% | 408 | 375 | 92 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 243 | 299 | 363 | 662 | 120 | 276 | 17 | 6 | 296 | 86 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 66% | 445 | 409 | 100 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 78 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 245 | 302 | 369 | 671 | 124 | 277 | 18 | 6 | 300 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 69% | 445 | 408 | 101 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 78 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 246 | 304 | 373 | 676 | 127 | 278 | 18 | 7 | 302 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 70% | 445 | 407 | 101 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 79 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 245 | 304 | 374 | 679 | 129 | 278 | 18 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 69% | 445 | 407 | 101 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 80 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 303 | 371 | 675 | 127 | 278 | 18 | 7 | 302 | 90 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 68% | 445 | 407 | 98 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 81 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 301 | 367 | 668 | 124 | 277 | 18 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 67% | 445 | 408 | 97 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 82 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 298 | 360 | 659 | 121 | 275 | 18 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 66% | 445 | 409 | 97 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 84 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 295 | 353 | 647 | 116 | 274 | 19 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 426 | 392 | 91 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 233 | 290 | 343 | 632 | 110 | 271 | 19 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -11 | -0 | -3 | +8 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 70% | 407 | 374 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 80 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 283 | 330 | 614 | 103 | 267 | 20 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -13 | -0 | -4 | +7 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | BOS | 43% | 158 | 146 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 301 | 363 | 664 | 116 | 283 | 18 | 6 | 297 | 83 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 61% | 249 | 229 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 250 | 305 | 372 | 677 | 122 | 284 | 17 | 6 | 302 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 66% | 295 | 271 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 252 | 308 | 378 | 686 | 126 | 286 | 17 | 6 | 306 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 69% | 306 | 280 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 252 | 310 | 382 | 691 | 130 | 287 | 18 | 7 | 308 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 70% | 311 | 284 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 252 | 311 | 383 | 694 | 131 | 287 | 18 | 7 | 309 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +6 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 69% | 307 | 281 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 251 | 310 | 380 | 690 | 130 | 287 | 18 | 7 | 308 | 90 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 68% | 305 | 279 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 249 | 307 | 376 | 683 | 127 | 286 | 18 | 7 | 305 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 67% | 297 | 272 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 246 | 305 | 369 | 674 | 123 | 284 | 19 | 7 | 301 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 66% | 292 | 268 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 55 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 243 | 301 | 362 | 662 | 118 | 282 | 19 | 7 | 297 | 83 | -6 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 277 | 254 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 296 | 352 | 647 | 113 | 279 | 19 | 6 | 290 | 78 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 70% | 287 | 264 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 233 | 289 | 339 | 628 | 106 | 275 | 20 | 6 | 282 | 73 | -9 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3084 | 2828 | 700 | 126 | 11 | 66 | 199 | 562 | 32 | 26 | 10 | 248 | 304 | 370 | 674 | 122 | 286 | 18 | 6 | 301 | 81 | -53 | +1 | -9 | +55 | +67 | 6.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 148 | 27 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 118 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 248 | 305 | 371 | 676 | 122 | 287 | 18 | 6 | 301 | 81 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5814 | 5338 | 1267 | 208 | 20 | 123 | 368 | 1055 | 64 | 57 | 18 | 237 | 294 | 353 | 647 | 116 | 273 | 18 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -87 | +2 | -14 | +88 | +107 | 9.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 141 | 23 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 118 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 293 | 352 | 645 | 116 | 271 | 18 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Greenville Drive · 400 PAwOBA .309 → .252 (−57)K% 14.2% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 18.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 20.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 3.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .309 → .252; ISO .108 → .094; BABIP .281 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 170 PAwOBA .316 → .216 (−100)K% 13.5% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.53% | ÷0.965 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.61% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 15.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.21% | ÷1.101 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.815 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 107, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .316 → .216; ISO .104 → .064; BABIP .321 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASalem Red Sox · 86 PAwOBA .379 → .317 (−61)K% 15.1% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.12% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×1.030 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.030 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | ×1.030 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.92% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .379 → .317; ISO .203 → .178; BABIP .317 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 70 PAwOBA .355 → .266 (−89)K% 17.1% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.14% | ÷1.026 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.86% | ÷0.968 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 14.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 23.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.061 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.952 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.97% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 112, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .355 → .266; ISO .074 → .060; BABIP .317 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASalem Red Sox · 22 PAwOBA .351 → .338 (−14)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×1.360 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 3.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.10% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 37.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .351 → .338; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .381 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 136 PAwOBA .380 → .245 (−134)K% 9.6% → 11.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.56% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.07% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 18.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.951 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.136 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.856 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.46% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 100, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .380 → .245; ISO .142 → .083; BABIP .369 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).