Alirio Ferrebus

C Clearwater Threshers

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 174 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTFG #504MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP44ETA2028FG ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	APHI	174	.219/.272/.275	1	2	32	—	.196/.243/.245
2025	19	INTLAdelaide Gian…	117	.279/.310/.360	2	1	90	—
2026	20	A+PHI	21	.105/.190/.105	0	1	-31	—	.105/.190/.105
2026	20	APHI	307	.324/.382/.520	11	5	114	—	.289/.339/.450
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBPHI	438	.247/.297/.377	10	5	89	0.9
2028PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBPHI	181	.251/.303/.392	5	2	93	0.5
2029PROJ68% MLB	23	MLBPHI	304	.253/.306/.399	9	4	96	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$7M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Max EV91

K%89

Z-Con%85

Whiff%82

Speed39

BB%12

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 87%

CompsDaniel Robertson (age 20) · Jake Smolinski (age 21) · Brendan Rodgers (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .294 / .374

PA320

HR7

K%17

BB%4

ISO130

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$56M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED36

scouting grade only

DEFENSE46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$9M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+1.3	$6M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$8M	+1.1	$5M	+$1M
Totals		$22M		$44M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	62	21	3	0	1	7	15	6	3	1	339	453	435	889	97	435	20	9	408	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	92	77	27	7	0	3	8	9	4	3	3	351	438	558	997	208	353	10	9	425	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	174	160	35	6	0	1	6	28	6	2	0	219	272	275	547	56	258	16	3	251	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	106	90	24	5	1	4	11	17	4	0	1	267	371	478	849	211	286	16	10	374	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	117	111	31	3	0	2	1	8	4	1	0	279	310	360	671	81	284	7	1	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	21	19	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	105	190	105	296		118	10	5	154	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	307	275	89	21	0	11	16	40	10	5	1	324	382	520	902	196	339	13	5	391	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	64	14	2	0	0	5	18	6	3	1	219	333	250	583	31	281	24	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	80	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	275	348	450	798	175	270	13	5	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	174	163	32	5	0	1	4	36	6	2	0	196	243	245	488	49	240	21	2	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	106	94	20	4	1	3	7	24	4	0	1	213	295	372	668	160	231	23	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	21	19	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	105	190	105	296		105	14	5	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	307	280	81	18	0	9	11	54	10	5	1	289	339	450	789	161	312	18	4	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	64	14	2	0	0	5	18	6	3	1	219	333	250	583	31	304	24	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	62	21	3	0	1	7	15	6	3	1	339	453	435	889	97	435	20	9	408	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	80	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	275	348	450	798	175	279	13	5	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	—	92	77	27	7	0	3	8	9	4	3	3	351	438	558	997	208	353	10	9	425	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	397	363	73	13	1	6	17	85	14	3	1	201	264	292	556	91	244	21	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	397	361	90	14	1	7	18	53	14	3	1	249	310	352	661	102	273	13	5	299	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	328	299	83	18	0	9	12	57	11	6	1	278	329	428	757	151	310	17	4	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	328	294	91	21	0	11	17	42	11	6	1	310	370	493	863	184	324	13	5	376	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	75	64	14	2	0	0	5	18	6	3	1	219	333	250	583	31	281	24	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	83	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	265	348	434	782	169	270	13	5	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	397	363	73	13	1	6	17	85	14	3	1	201	264	292	556	91	237	21	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	328	302	83	18	0	9	12	57	11	6	1	275	329	424	753	149	299	17	4	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	92	83	22	5	0	3	5	12	4	3	3	265	348	434	782	169	270	13	5	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	397	363	73	13	1	6	17	85	14	3	1	201	264	292	556	91	237	21	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	328	302	83	18	0	9	12	57	11	6	1	275	329	424	753	149	299	17	4	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	438	406	100	21	1	10	18	75	11	5	1	247	297	377	674	130	278	17	4	300	89	-6	+1	-3	+8	+9	0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	375	347	87	18	1	9	16	64	9	4	1	249	301	386	687	137	279	17	4	306	93	-3	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	PHI	68%	446	411	104	21	1	12	21	76	11	5	1	251	305	393	697	141	280	17	5	310	96	-2	+1	-2	+8	+10	1.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	PHI	74%	493	454	114	23	1	13	24	84	12	6	2	253	307	397	704	144	281	17	5	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	PHI	77%	519	475	120	24	1	14	27	90	12	6	2	253	308	399	707	146	282	17	5	314	99	-1	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	PHI	78%	520	475	119	24	1	14	28	91	12	6	2	252	309	399	708	147	282	18	5	315	99	-1	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	PHI	77%	520	476	119	24	1	14	28	92	11	5	2	251	308	396	704	145	282	18	5	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	PHI	77%	520	476	119	24	1	14	28	93	11	4	1	249	306	392	697	143	281	18	5	310	96	-2	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	PHI	75%	520	477	118	24	1	13	27	95	11	2	1	247	303	385	688	139	279	18	5	307	94	-4	+0	-3	+9	+11	1.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	PHI	73%	517	474	116	23	1	13	27	96	11	1	1	244	299	378	677	134	278	19	5	302	90	-6	-0	-3	+9	+11	1.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	PHI	73%	488	450	109	22	1	12	25	92	10	1	0	239	294	368	662	128	275	19	5	296	86	-8	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.8
2038	32	MLB MLE	PHI	72%	456	421	98	19	1	10	23	88	9	0	0	234	288	355	643	121	271	19	5	288	81	-10	+0	-4	+8	+10	0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	PHI	72%	415	384	87	17	0	9	20	83	8	0	0	227	280	339	619	112	266	20	5	278	74	-13	+0	-5	+7	+9	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	181	166	41	8	0	5	8	31	5	2	1	251	303	392	695	141	279	17	4	309	93	-1	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	PHI	68%	304	280	72	14	1	9	14	52	7	4	1	253	306	399	705	146	280	17	5	313	96	-1	+0	-1	+5	+7	1.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	PHI	74%	365	335	86	17	1	11	18	62	9	4	1	254	309	404	713	149	282	17	5	316	98	-1	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	PHI	77%	399	367	93	18	1	12	20	69	9	5	1	254	310	406	716	152	282	17	5	318	99	-1	+1	-1	+7	+9	1.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	PHI	78%	406	372	94	18	1	12	22	71	9	5	1	254	311	406	717	152	282	17	5	318	99	-0	+1	-1	+7	+9	1.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	PHI	77%	401	368	93	18	1	12	21	71	9	4	1	253	310	403	713	151	282	18	5	316	98	-1	+0	-1	+7	+9	1.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	PHI	77%	398	365	91	18	1	11	21	71	9	3	1	251	307	399	706	148	281	18	5	314	96	-2	+0	-1	+7	+9	1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	PHI	75%	388	357	89	17	1	11	20	71	8	2	1	248	304	392	696	144	280	18	5	310	94	-3	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	PHI	73%	380	349	86	17	1	10	20	70	8	0	1	245	301	384	685	139	278	18	5	305	90	-4	-0	-2	+7	+8	0.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	PHI	73%	355	327	79	15	1	9	18	67	7	0	0	241	296	374	669	133	275	19	5	299	86	-6	+0	-3	+6	+8	0.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	PHI	72%	330	304	72	14	0	8	16	64	7	0	0	235	289	360	649	125	271	19	5	290	81	-8	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	PHI	72%	299	277	63	12	0	7	14	60	6	0	0	228	281	345	626	116	266	20	5	280	74	-9	+0	-4	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4206	3867	959	186	9	117	212	759	93	29	9	248	303	392	694	144	279	18	5	308	90	-37	+2	-21	+75	+91	11.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	148	29	1	18	33	117	14	4	1	247	302	390	692	142	279	18	5	308	90	-6	+0	-3	+12	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	7001	6422	1575	316	13	172	346	1271	170	58	20	245	301	379	680	134	279	18	5	302	90	-56	+3	-32	+109	+132	15.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	146	29	1	16	32	118	16	5	2	245	301	378	679	133	279	18	5	302	90	-6	+0	-3	+12	+14	1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	9.3	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
/162	664	15	2	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Bengie Molina'98-'10 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,159 PA	7.8	5,159	144	3	264*	298*	401*	+86	+0	15.3	14.5
/162	664	19	0	+11.0	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.8	4,528	115	33	247	299	384	+81	-14	16.6	14.2
/162	664	17	5	+11.9	-2.0	2.4	pk7: 12
#5Michael Barrett'98-'09 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,873 PA	5.8	3,873	98	11	252*	306*	406*	+61	-5	12.1	12.8
/162	664	17	2	+10.5	-0.9	2.1	pk7: 13
#6Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alirio Ferrebus (OGILVIE)	21	30→48	30→45	40→36	40	245/294/374	129	278	7	3	17%	4%	89	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Daniel Robertson 2014 · A	20	47→57	43→45	37→40	45	231/292/342	111	292	10	3	24%	7%	80	-0.1	252/320/366	114	316	9	3	22%	7%	96	+1.0	256/329/366	110	321	8	2	21%	8%	96	+0.9
✕Jake Smolinski 2010 · A	21	49→50	44→55	39→45	48	237/299/358	121	287	10	5	21%	7%	86	+0.3	233/295/344	111	279	8	7	18%	8%	82	-0.0	238/300/392	154	271	17	6	18%	7%	94	+0.6
✕Brendan Rodgers 2018 · AA	21	48→55	47→50	42→45	38	242/283/375	133	307	15	4	26%	4%	84	+0.2	241/288/375	134	304	14	7	25%	5%	86	+0.3	260/314/400	140	308	15	0	20%	6%	102	+1.0
●Josmil Pinto 2011 · A	22	42→52	47→50	41→40	42	215/261/354	139	258	15	3	24%	5%	72	-0.7	234/285/373	139	288	14	2	23%	6%	84	+0.2	257/325/415	158	308	17	0	21%	8%	106	+1.5
✕Matt Dominguez 2011 · AA	21	46→48	47→50	40→30	46	231/288/372	141	275	14	2	22%	6%	86	+0.3	232/279/363	131	262	14	2	17%	5%	80	-0.2	231/275/364	133	252	16	0	16%	5%	78	-0.2
●Christian Vázquez 2013 · AA	22	44→54	44→50	43→45	43	219/275/336	117	282	12	3	26%	7%	72	-0.7	249/306/342	93	307	7	5	20%	7%	85	+0.2	259/309/407	148	296	18	8	19%	7%	102	+1.0
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→59	49→55	42→30	44	249/294/398	149	296	16	5	22%	6%	93	+0.8	268/308/425	157	313	19	2	20%	5%	105	+1.7	274/316/435	161	317	20	0	20%	5%	108	+1.5
✕Juan Apodaca 2007 · A	21	45→55	43→45	46→40	45	226/280/333	107	282	12	5	24%	7%	73	-0.6	226/282/328	102	292	11	5	25%	6%	73	-0.6	269/334/371	102	330	9	3	20%	8%	100	+0.7
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2019 · A	21	46→44	48→50	44→45	43	233/277/371	137	268	16	6	20%	5%	81	-0.1	229/267/366	137	273	15	6	22%	4%	76	-0.4	218/265/369	151	256	19	1	23%	4%	74	-0.4
✕Alberto Carreon 2010 · AAA	22	46→56	45	43→50	48	225/296/348	123	253	13	10	17%	6%	84	+0.1	242/295/324	82	298	5	9	19%	5%	76	-0.4	274/332/381	107	344	7	11	21%	5%	100	+0.8
●Taylor Green 2008 · A	21	50→56	44→50	35→30	48	244/303/366	122	289	11	2	20%	7%	89	+0.5	246/305/371	125	283	13	3	17%	7%	92	+0.7	251/309/394	143	284	14	0	17%	7%	97	+0.8
✕Orlando Mercado 2006 · A	21	45	43→45	43→40	51	223/292/332	109	259	11	5	18%	8%	78	-0.3	217/300/335	118	248	12	3	17%	10%	82	+0.0	231/324/312	81	266	7	1	15%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	45→51	49→50	37→45	54	228/313/371	143	268	17	3	22%	10%	95	+1.0	231/301/358	127	283	12	5	21%	9%	87	+0.4	228/292/363	135	273	14	6	21%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Matt Vierling 2019 · A	22	47→55	46→50	43→50	38	235/279/367	132	301	13	9	26%	4%	81	-0.1	208/263/306	98	279	9	14	27%	6%	61	-1.5	254/314/393	139	307	13	10	21%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Óscar Hernández 2014 · A	21	42	46→50	42→40	47	213/290/340	126	256	14	4	22%	7%	80	-0.1	204/250/316	112	270	10	4	27%	5%	58	-1.7	166/217/270	103	212	12	1	27%	5%	33	-1.2
✕Josh Vitters 2012 · AA	22	48→51	47→50	39→45	41	240/276/378	138	270	15	6	18%	3%	82	+0.0	224/269/364	140	275	16	7	24%	5%	77	-0.3	206/253/337	132	261	17	6	28%	5%	62	-0.9
✕Edinson Rincon 2012 · A	21	47→56	46→45	42→30	43	234/286/364	130	294	13	3	25%	6%	83	+0.1	246/282/347	101	304	9	3	21%	5%	76	-0.4	251/283/341	90	308	7	1	20%	4%	72	-0.4
●Max Ramirez 2006 · A	21	51→52	45→50	42→40	46	250/305/372	122	306	12	4	22%	7%	92	+0.7	249/330/394	145	329	16	3	27%	10%	106	+1.8	253/341/414	161	332	19	2	27%	10%	113	+1.7
✕Alejandro Segovia 2010 · A	20	46→45	42→50	42→30	47	222/280/325	102	242	9	4	13%	5%	72	-0.7	216/266/322	106	254	10	4	19%	5%	65	-1.2	220/289/366	146	257	17	1	21%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Juremi Profar 2017 · A	21	51→53	44→45	41→30	46	249/290/368	119	281	11	3	16%	5%	85	+0.2	230/266/331	101	265	11	2	17%	5%	68	-1.0	222/258/313	92	255	10	1	17%	4%	57	-1.3

Alirio Ferrebus

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps