Andruw Musett
C Salem RidgeYaks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A/ROK2 orgs | 244 | .239/.378/.320 | 2 | 1 | 52 | — | .185/.286/.247 |
| 2025 | 19 | A+/A2 orgs | 390 | .246/.330/.342 | 7 | 1 | 43 | — | .187/.250/.263 |
| 2026 | 20 | ABOS | 195 | .279/.390/.448 | 4 | 2 | 82 | — | .220/.308/.347 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBBOS | 331 | .204/.279/.298 | 5 | 3 | 65 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBBOS | 57 | .216/.292/.325 | 1 | 1 | 72 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBBOS | 123 | .221/.296/.337 | 2 | 1 | 76 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 164 | 128 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 289 | 438 | 414 | 852 | 125 | 327 | 14 | 18 | 387 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 72 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 324 | 233 | 557 | 33 | 286 | 26 | 12 | 269 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 172 | 137 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 400 | 358 | 758 | 102 | 289 | 13 | 17 | 350 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 69 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 279 | 279 | 558 | 82 | 282 | 32 | 10 | 256 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 321 | 284 | 73 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 341 | 356 | 696 | 99 | 328 | 23 | 11 | 318 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 195 | 165 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 279 | 390 | 448 | 838 | 170 | 356 | 22 | 14 | 376 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 164 | 138 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 315 | 275 | 590 | 80 | 219 | 18 | 12 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 72 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 254 | 175 | 428 | 16 | 264 | 38 | 8 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 172 | 148 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 300 | 277 | 577 | 81 | 228 | 19 | 11 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 69 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 191 | 203 | 394 | 62 | 251 | 45 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 321 | 294 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 105 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 263 | 276 | 538 | 78 | 285 | 33 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 195 | 173 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 308 | 347 | 655 | 127 | 315 | 30 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 164 | 138 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 315 | 275 | 590 | 80 | 229 | 18 | 12 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 164 | 128 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 289 | 438 | 414 | 852 | 125 | 327 | 14 | 18 | 387 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 210 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 290 | 248 | 538 | 62 | 245 | 25 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 244 | 197 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 378 | 320 | 697 | 81 | 288 | 17 | 16 | 326 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 358 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 253 | 265 | 518 | 75 | 283 | 35 | 7 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 345 | 85 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 97 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 246 | 330 | 342 | 672 | 96 | 321 | 25 | 11 | 307 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 195 | 173 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 308 | 347 | 655 | 127 | 312 | 30 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 195 | 165 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 279 | 390 | 448 | 838 | 170 | 356 | 22 | 14 | 376 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 164 | 139 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 315 | 273 | 588 | 79 | 219 | 18 | 12 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 211 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 290 | 246 | 537 | 62 | 239 | 25 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 357 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 253 | 266 | 519 | 76 | 279 | 35 | 7 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 195 | 171 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 308 | 351 | 659 | 129 | 315 | 30 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 211 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 290 | 246 | 537 | 62 | 239 | 25 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 357 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 253 | 266 | 519 | 76 | 279 | 35 | 7 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 195 | 171 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 308 | 351 | 659 | 129 | 315 | 30 | 10 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | BOS | 0% | 331 | 297 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 279 | 298 | 577 | 94 | 275 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | BOS | 34% | 166 | 149 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 286 | 316 | 602 | 106 | 277 | 27 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 48% | 253 | 227 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 67 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 291 | 329 | 619 | 114 | 278 | 26 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 336 | 301 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 87 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 294 | 337 | 631 | 119 | 280 | 26 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 381 | 340 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 98 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 219 | 296 | 342 | 638 | 122 | 280 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 56% | 407 | 364 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 104 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 221 | 297 | 345 | 642 | 124 | 281 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 82 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 418 | 374 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 108 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 296 | 342 | 638 | 123 | 280 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 59% | 418 | 374 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 109 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 294 | 337 | 632 | 120 | 279 | 26 | 9 | 286 | 79 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 56% | 411 | 368 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 108 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 215 | 291 | 331 | 622 | 116 | 278 | 26 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 59% | 401 | 360 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 107 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 212 | 288 | 323 | 611 | 111 | 275 | 27 | 9 | 277 | 74 | -13 | -0 | -2 | +7 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 61% | 368 | 330 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 99 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 208 | 283 | 313 | 596 | 105 | 272 | 27 | 9 | 271 | 70 | -13 | -2 | -3 | +7 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | BOS | 34% | 57 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 292 | 325 | 617 | 109 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 280 | 72 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 48% | 123 | 110 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 296 | 337 | 634 | 117 | 288 | 26 | 9 | 287 | 76 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 177 | 157 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 300 | 346 | 645 | 122 | 289 | 26 | 9 | 291 | 79 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 209 | 187 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 302 | 351 | 653 | 125 | 290 | 26 | 9 | 294 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 56% | 227 | 203 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 303 | 354 | 657 | 127 | 291 | 26 | 9 | 296 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 230 | 206 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 302 | 351 | 653 | 125 | 290 | 26 | 9 | 294 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 59% | 246 | 220 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 300 | 346 | 646 | 122 | 289 | 26 | 9 | 292 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 56% | 229 | 205 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 297 | 340 | 637 | 119 | 287 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 59% | 235 | 211 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 293 | 332 | 625 | 114 | 285 | 26 | 9 | 283 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 61% | 223 | 200 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 214 | 288 | 322 | 610 | 108 | 282 | 27 | 9 | 277 | 70 | -8 | -1 | -2 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1956 | 1750 | 391 | 79 | 8 | 39 | 171 | 510 | 18 | 20 | 10 | 223 | 299 | 345 | 644 | 121 | 291 | 26 | 9 | 289 | 73 | -52 | +0 | -4 | +35 | +42 | 2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 130 | 26 | 3 | 13 | 57 | 169 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 223 | 300 | 345 | 645 | 122 | 290 | 26 | 9 | 289 | 73 | -17 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4674 | 4176 | 884 | 160 | 17 | 88 | 415 | 1248 | 48 | 41 | 20 | 212 | 290 | 321 | 612 | 110 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -100 | +0 | -7 | +66 | +80 | 3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 122 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 58 | 174 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 210 | 290 | 317 | 607 | 107 | 276 | 27 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 195 PAwOBA .367 → .290 (−77)K% 22.1% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 21.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 8.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .367 → .290; ISO .170 → .133; BABIP .356 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASalem Red Sox · 321 PAwOBA .311 → .242 (−69)K% 23.4% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.36% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.59% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 23.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.87% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.65% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .311 → .242; ISO .099 → .081; BABIP .328 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greenville Drive · 69 PAwOBA .254 → .182 (−72)K% 31.9% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.88% | ÷0.936 | ×1.310 | — | — | 44.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.050 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.974 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 21.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.117 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 2.10% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .254 → .182; ISO .082 → .056; BABIP .282 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 172 PAwOBA .346 → .260 (−86)K% 13.4% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.37% | ÷1.026 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.44% | ÷0.968 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 11.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.93% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | ×0.993 | ×1.008 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.061 | ×0.720 | ×0.993 | ×1.008 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.993 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.952 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.45% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 112, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .346 → .260; ISO .102 → .079; BABIP .289 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASalem Red Sox · 72 PAwOBA .267 → .210 (−57)K% 26.4% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.39% | ÷0.948 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.39% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.045 | 23.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×1.045 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .267 → .210; ISO .033 → .024; BABIP .286 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 164 PAwOBA .383 → .266 (−117)K% 14.0% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.02% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.29% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | ×1.009 | ×1.008 | 18.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.951 | ×0.600 | ×1.009 | ×1.008 | 3.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.136 | ×0.600 | ×1.009 | ×1.008 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.856 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.58% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 100, 2B 90, 3B 127, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .383 → .266; ISO .125 → .077; BABIP .327 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).