J.J. D'Orazio
C Rocket City Trash Pandas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 333 | .233/.301/.340 | 6 | 0 | 57 | — | .202/.253/.278 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 300 | .253/.313/.363 | 5 | 2 | 55 | — | .186/.231/.236 |
| 2026 | 24 | AALAA | 165 | .245/.315/.408 | 7 | 1 | 63 | — | .212/.265/.351 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBLAA | 2 | .213/.263/.319 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBLAA | 50 | .214/.266/.323 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBLAA | 85 | .215/.267/.325 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 175 | 164 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 280 | 322 | 341 | 663 | 61 | 390 | 27 | 5 | 299 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 45 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 205 | 220 | 424 | 73 | 179 | 29 | 7 | 193 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 77 | 67 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 284 | 368 | 373 | 742 | 90 | 391 | 27 | 12 | 334 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 310 | 263 | 58 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 221 | 328 | 312 | 640 | 91 | 286 | 23 | 13 | 294 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 145 | 138 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 239 | 297 | 537 | 80 | 274 | 23 | 3 | 235 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 296 | 260 | 80 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 308 | 382 | 488 | 871 | 181 | 362 | 19 | 10 | 381 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 284 | 256 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 292 | 328 | 620 | 105 | 271 | 21 | 8 | 280 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 49 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 354 | 409 | 763 | 114 | 343 | 18 | 8 | 336 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 147 | 139 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 260 | 302 | 562 | 79 | 287 | 25 | 4 | 253 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 88 | 77 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 273 | 364 | 338 | 701 | 65 | 368 | 23 | 10 | 325 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 65 | 57 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 298 | 365 | 544 | 909 | 246 | 326 | 18 | 9 | 385 | 146 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 165 | 147 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 315 | 408 | 723 | 163 | 269 | 21 | 8 | 318 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 175 | 167 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 186 | 218 | 228 | 446 | 42 | 303 | 39 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 45 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 182 | 214 | 396 | 71 | 175 | 38 | 4 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 77 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 263 | 286 | 549 | 86 | 312 | 40 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 310 | 275 | 53 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 95 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 193 | 272 | 262 | 534 | 69 | 276 | 31 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 145 | 139 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 204 | 237 | 442 | 50 | 251 | 28 | 2 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 296 | 270 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 77 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 324 | 422 | 746 | 156 | 332 | 26 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 284 | 263 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 73 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 202 | 253 | 278 | 530 | 76 | 260 | 26 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 147 | 141 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 163 | 192 | 206 | 397 | 43 | 241 | 31 | 3 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 88 | 80 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 225 | 295 | 287 | 583 | 62 | 332 | 31 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 165 | 151 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 265 | 351 | 616 | 139 | 239 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 175 | 167 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 186 | 218 | 228 | 446 | 42 | 310 | 39 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 175 | 164 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 280 | 322 | 341 | 663 | 61 | 390 | 27 | 5 | 299 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 112 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 225 | 223 | 448 | 54 | 273 | 39 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 122 | 108 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 308 | 315 | 623 | 83 | 311 | 28 | 10 | 282 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 310 | 275 | 53 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 95 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 193 | 272 | 262 | 534 | 69 | 283 | 31 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 310 | 263 | 58 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 221 | 328 | 312 | 640 | 91 | 286 | 23 | 13 | 294 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 409 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 117 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 285 | 359 | 644 | 120 | 314 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 441 | 398 | 110 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 89 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 276 | 336 | 422 | 758 | 146 | 331 | 20 | 8 | 333 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 308 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 86 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 255 | 286 | 541 | 81 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 333 | 300 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 301 | 340 | 641 | 107 | 282 | 21 | 8 | 288 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 281 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 189 | 232 | 235 | 467 | 46 | 277 | 31 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 300 | 273 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 313 | 363 | 676 | 110 | 318 | 23 | 7 | 303 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 165 | 151 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 265 | 351 | 616 | 139 | 248 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 165 | 147 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 315 | 408 | 723 | 163 | 269 | 21 | 8 | 318 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 175 | 166 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 187 | 218 | 229 | 447 | 42 | 303 | 39 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 113 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 225 | 221 | 446 | 53 | 261 | 39 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 310 | 277 | 53 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 95 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 191 | 272 | 260 | 532 | 69 | 276 | 31 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 412 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 117 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 285 | 357 | 642 | 119 | 305 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 309 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 86 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 255 | 285 | 540 | 81 | 260 | 26 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 281 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 189 | 232 | 235 | 467 | 46 | 275 | 31 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 165 | 153 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 265 | 346 | 612 | 137 | 239 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 309 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 86 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 255 | 285 | 540 | 81 | 260 | 26 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 300 | 281 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 189 | 232 | 235 | 467 | 46 | 275 | 31 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 165 | 153 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 265 | 346 | 612 | 137 | 239 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAA | 2% | 215 | 200 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 264 | 320 | 584 | 106 | 269 | 25 | 5 | 262 | 64 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAA | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 263 | 319 | 581 | 106 | 267 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 64 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 31% | 160 | 148 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 267 | 325 | 591 | 109 | 270 | 25 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 42% | 202 | 187 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 268 | 326 | 594 | 110 | 270 | 25 | 5 | 267 | 67 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAA | 31% | 50 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 266 | 323 | 589 | 109 | 268 | 24 | 6 | 264 | 66 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 42% | 85 | 79 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 267 | 325 | 592 | 110 | 268 | 25 | 6 | 266 | 67 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 135 | 126 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 325 | 592 | 111 | 267 | 24 | 6 | 265 | 52 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 129 | 24 | 0 | 14 | 39 | 159 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 213 | 266 | 321 | 587 | 109 | 265 | 24 | 6 | 265 | 52 | -26 | +2 | +0 | +12 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2308 | 2132 | 442 | 83 | 9 | 29 | 132 | 665 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 207 | 259 | 295 | 555 | 88 | 283 | 29 | 6 | 245 | 52 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +10 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 124 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 187 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 207 | 258 | 295 | 553 | 88 | 282 | 29 | 6 | 245 | 52 | -27 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 165 PAwOBA .315 → .262 (−53)K% 21.2% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.21% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 2.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.99% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .315 → .262; ISO .163 → .132; BABIP .269 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 147 PAwOBA .248 → .187 (−61)K% 25.2% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.17% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.08% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 2.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 20.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.119 | ×0.840 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 3.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.333 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .248 → .187; ISO .079 → .049; BABIP .287 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 88 PAwOBA .317 → .254 (−63)K% 22.7% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 30.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷1.044 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.82% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 27.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.908 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 100, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .317 → .254; ISO .065 → .051; BABIP .368 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 284 PAwOBA .275 → .237 (−38)K% 21.5% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.48% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.10% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .275 → .237; ISO .105 → .081; BABIP .271 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 296 PAwOBA .375 → .317 (−58)K% 18.9% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷0.987 | ×1.350 | — | — | 25.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷1.038 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.49% | ÷0.980 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 23.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 3.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .375 → .317; ISO .181 → .155; BABIP .362 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 145 PAwOBA .232 → .199 (−33)K% 22.8% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.76% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.76% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 2.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.042 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | ×1.024 | ×1.042 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | ×1.024 | ×1.042 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.48% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .232 → .199; ISO .080 → .061; BABIP .274 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 310 PAwOBA .292 → .246 (−46)K% 22.6% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷1.001 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.58% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.69% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×1.015 | 19.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.33% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | ×1.015 | 8.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.062 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .292 → .246; ISO .091 → .079; BABIP .286 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL D-backs · 77 PAwOBA .330 → .226 (−104)K% 27.3% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷1.008 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.78% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 28.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.950 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.71% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 88, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .330 → .226; ISO .090 → .061; BABIP .391 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .