Carlos Castillo — OGILVIE

Carlos Castillo P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.6 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%12.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%0.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	100%	3.4	18.9%	13.0%	5.9%	0.0%	1.70	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	100%	3.4	18.9%	13.0%	5.9%	0.0%	1.70	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	100%	3.4	27.8%	10.4%	17.4%	0.0%	1.70	2.15	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	13.5%	13.3%	0.3%	2.5%	4.81	5.00	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	13.5%	13.3%	0.3%	2.5%	4.81	5.00	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	1.8%	4.81	3.88	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	1.4%	3.79	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	1.4%	3.79	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	1.0%	3.79	3.09	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	11	9	29	149	27	23	6	82%	2.7	15.0%	17.4%	-2.4%	5.4%	6.14	7.00	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	11	9	29	149	27	23	6	82%	2.7	15.0%	17.4%	-2.4%	5.4%	6.14	7.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	PIT	1	1	2	10	0	2	0	100%	2.3	0.0%	20.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	7.71	5.63	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	PIT	10	8	27	139	27	21	6	80%	2.7	19.4%	15.1%	4.3%	4.3%	6.00	5.74	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	6	23	3	3	1	100%	5.5	12.6%	12.3%	0.3%	2.7%	5.46	5.46	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	35	172	30	26	7	—	—	17.4%	15.0%	2.4%	3.8%	6.03	6.76	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	90	379	56	43	10	100%	4.7	14.7%	11.4%	3.3%	2.7%	5.23	5.15	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	94	398	66	43	10	100%	5.2	16.7%	10.7%	6.0%	2.6%	4.99	4.87	+0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	98	413	74	42	11	100%	5.4	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	2.6%	4.81	4.70	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	100	423	78	42	11	100%	5.6	18.5%	10.0%	8.6%	2.6%	4.68	4.60	+0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	429	81	42	11	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	2.6%	4.60	4.54	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	429	82	42	11	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	2.6%	4.55	4.52	+0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	100	422	81	42	11	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.56	4.56	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	97	410	78	41	11	100%	6.1	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	2.7%	4.61	4.64	+0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	93	391	73	40	11	100%	6.2	18.7%	10.2%	8.5%	2.9%	4.71	4.77	+0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	87	367	67	39	11	100%	6.2	18.4%	10.5%	7.8%	3.1%	4.85	4.95	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	44	186	27	21	5	100%	4.9	14.7%	11.4%	3.3%	2.5%	5.12	5.04	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	69	291	49	31	7	100%	4.9	16.7%	10.7%	6.0%	2.4%	4.88	4.76	+0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	83	350	63	36	8	100%	5.2	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	2.4%	4.70	4.59	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	89	376	70	37	9	100%	5.6	18.5%	10.0%	8.6%	2.4%	4.57	4.49	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	93	393	74	39	9	100%	5.8	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	2.4%	4.49	4.43	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	95	401	77	39	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	2.4%	4.44	4.41	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	95	401	76	40	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.8%	9.2%	2.4%	4.45	4.45	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	92	388	74	39	10	100%	6.1	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	2.5%	4.50	4.53	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	88	372	70	38	10	100%	5.9	18.7%	10.2%	8.5%	2.7%	4.59	4.65	+0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	83	350	64	37	10	100%	5.9	18.4%	10.5%	7.8%	2.8%	4.72	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	145	831	3507	642	357	87	100%	5.7	18.3%	10.2%	8.1%	2.5%	4.61	4.21	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	155	86	21	100%	5.7	18.3%	10.2%	8.1%	2.5%	4.61	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		64	50	210	907	135	114	19	78%	3.3	14.9%	12.5%	2.4%	2.1%	3.99	4.59	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	48	200	864	129	108	18	78%	3.3	14.9%	12.5%	2.4%	2.1%	3.99	4.59	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	12.6%	12.3%	2.7%	—	4.90	16.5%	5.7%	282	-0.56	—	—	—
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	85
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	85
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	85
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	85
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	85
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	84
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	84
Jasseel De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	13.1%	12.0%	1.5%	.275	4.36	17.0%	5.9%	202	+0.02	3.91	374	83
Orlando Noriega R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	19	SP	4.82	13.6%	12.5%	2.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	150	83
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	83
Miguel Toscano R 2023 · 5.80 FIP	17	SP	5.80	10.6%	10.4%	4.2%	.288	4.40	11.9%	0.7%	142	-1.40	3.58	183	82
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	82
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	627	81
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.52	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.55	3.74	355	81
Julio Pinto R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	20	SP-	5.05	13.0%	15.8%	1.9%	.293	6.08	15.5%	-0.9%	182	+1.03	4.41	368	81
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	93	17.8%	10.4%	1.04	4.80
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88