Carlos Castillo — OGILVIE

Carlos Castillo P Greensboro Grasshoppers

+0.4 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.9 · 2031

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.1%

IP94

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.9peak

2031

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	18.9%	13.0%	0.0%	1.70	3.15	+0.8
2024	18	A	Bradenton Marauders	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	13.5%	13.3%	2.5%	4.81	5.03	-0.0
2025	19	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	14.1%	10.1%	1.5%	3.79	3.98	+1.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	3	3	14	59	13	8	1	17.0%	15.6%	2.1%	2.63	4.81	+0.0
ROS	20	MLB	PIT	17	17	94	396	79	38	11	19.9%	9.7%	2.7%	4.52	4.52	+0.8
2026 Total	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	107	455	92	46	12	20.1%	10.2%	2.6%	4.28	4.56	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	PIT	18	18	98	415	86	38	11	20.6%	9.1%	2.7%	4.41	4.36	+1.0
2028	22	MLB	PIT	23	23	125	529	115	45	14	21.7%	8.5%	2.6%	4.27	4.18	+1.6
2029	23	MLB	PIT	27	27	150	633	142	52	17	22.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.14	4.06	+2.1
2030	24	MLB	PIT	31	31	170	717	165	57	19	23.0%	8.0%	2.6%	4.04	3.97	+2.6
2031	25	MLB	PIT	33	33	184	776	181	61	20	23.3%	7.8%	2.6%	3.96	3.91	+2.9
2032	26	MLB	PIT	33	33	184	776	183	60	20	23.5%	7.8%	2.6%	3.92	3.89	+2.9
2033	27	MLB	PIT	33	33	182	771	182	60	20	23.6%	7.8%	2.6%	3.91	3.90	+2.9
2034	28	MLB	PIT	33	33	180	759	178	60	20	23.5%	7.8%	2.6%	3.92	3.93	+2.8
2035	29	MLB	PIT	32	32	176	742	174	59	20	23.4%	7.9%	2.7%	3.95	3.97	+2.7
2036	30	MLB	PIT	31	31	170	720	167	58	20	23.2%	8.0%	2.7%	4.00	4.04	+2.4
2037	31	MLB	PIT	30	30	164	695	159	57	19	22.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.07	4.11	+2.2
2038	32	MLB	PIT	29	29	158	667	151	55	19	22.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.15	4.20	+2.0
2039	33	MLB	PIT	27	27	151	637	142	54	19	22.4%	8.5%	3.0%	4.24	4.29	+1.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			56	44	194	817	123	97	13	15.0%	11.9%	1.5%	3.57	4.18	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—			58	45	200	841	127	100	13	15.0%	11.9%	1.5%	3.57	4.18	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	19.9%	9.7%	2.7%	—	4.18	21.7%	13.2%	374	-0.34	—	—	—
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	94
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	91
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	91
Trevor Clifton R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	20	SP-	4.24	16.5%	12.0%	1.8%	.276	3.85	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.39	3.07	588	91
Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	90
Chris McElvain R 2028 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	89
Braden Webb R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	89
Sam Carlson R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	89
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	88
Will Sanders R 2028 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	88
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.17	16.8%	2.6%	91	+0.98	3.82	406	88
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	88
Devereaux Harrison R 2028 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	88
Miguel Almonte R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.42	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.57	3.05	247	88
Jake Peppers R 2028 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	87
Nick Davila R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.07	17.3%	11.0%	196	+0.18	3.46	341	87
Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP-	3.99	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.302	2.67	25.1%	16.6%	74	-1.32	2.67	174	87
Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	87
Enrique Segura R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	16.9%	10.2%	2.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	238	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.6	$23M	+$23M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.9	$27M	+$26M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.9	$28M	+$27M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.9	$29M	+$24M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.8	$28M	+$21M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+2.6	$27M	+$17M
Totals		$24M		$162M	+$138M