Carlos Castillo — OGILVIE

Carlos Castillo P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 122

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%12.6%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%0.7%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	100%	3.4	18.9%	13.0%	5.9%	0.0%	1.70	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	100%	3.4	27.8%	10.4%	17.4%	0.0%	1.70	2.15	—
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	13.5%	13.3%	0.3%	2.6%	4.81	5.04	—
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	1.8%	4.81	3.88	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	1.6%	3.79	4.03	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	1.0%	3.79	3.09	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	10	8	27	139	27	21	6	80%	2.7	15.0%	17.4%	-2.4%	5.4%	6.00	7.00	-0.8
ROS	20	MLB	PIT	12	12	65	274	34	33	7	100%	5.4	12.6%	11.9%	0.7%	2.7%	5.42	5.42	-0.6
ROS	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.6%	11.9%	0.7%	2.7%	5.41	5.41	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	92	413	61	54	13	—	—	14.9%	13.0%	1.9%	3.3%	5.59	5.88	-0.7
2026 FULL	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	12.6%	11.9%	0.7%	2.7%	5.41	5.03	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	PIT	14	14	69	291	43	33	8	100%	4.9	14.9%	11.3%	3.6%	2.7%	5.20	5.13	-0.3
2028	22	MLB	PIT	14	14	72	305	51	33	8	100%	5.2	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	2.7%	4.98	4.86	-0.0
2029	23	MLB	PIT	14	14	75	317	57	33	8	100%	5.4	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	2.6%	4.80	4.70	+0.1
2030	24	MLB	PIT	14	14	77	325	61	33	8	100%	5.5	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	2.6%	4.68	4.60	+0.3
2031	25	MLB	PIT	13	13	78	329	63	33	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	2.6%	4.60	4.54	+0.4
2032	26	MLB	PIT	13	13	78	329	63	32	9	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.55	4.52	+0.4
2033	27	MLB	PIT	13	13	77	324	62	32	9	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.56	4.56	+0.3
2027	21	MLB	PIT	7	7	34	144	21	16	4	100%	4.9	14.9%	11.3%	3.6%	2.7%	5.19	5.12	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	PIT	10	10	53	224	38	24	6	100%	5.3	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	2.6%	4.97	4.85	-0.2
2029	23	MLB	PIT	12	12	63	266	48	27	7	100%	5.2	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	2.6%	4.79	4.69	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	PIT	12	12	69	291	55	29	8	100%	5.8	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.59	+0.1
2031	25	MLB	PIT	12	12	72	304	58	30	8	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	2.6%	4.59	4.53	+0.2
2032	26	MLB	PIT	12	12	73	308	59	30	8	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.54	4.51	+0.3
2033	27	MLB	PIT	12	12	73	308	59	31	8	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.55	4.55	+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			78	78	436	1841	338	187	48	100%	5.6	18.3%	10.2%	8.2%	2.6%	4.71	4.27	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	844	155	86	22	100%	5.6	18.3%	10.2%	8.2%	2.6%	4.71	4.27	+2.6
Career	—			63	49	208	897	134	112	19	78%	3.3	14.9%	12.5%	2.4%	2.2%	3.94	4.60	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			61	47	200	864	129	108	19	78%	3.3	14.9%	12.5%	2.4%	2.2%	3.94	4.60	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	12.6%	11.9%	2.7%	—	4.89	16.6%	5.9%	216	-0.53	—	—	—
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	86
Luke Gabrysh R 2028 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	13.8%	11.8%	2.1%	.271	5.55	21.8%	8.1%	59	+0.96	4.59	138	86
Bryan Balzer R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	15.0%	13.7%	1.9%	.360	4.78	17.5%	7.0%	73	+0.20	4.58	123	85
Josh Swales R 2026 · 5.43 FIP	20	SP-	5.43	11.8%	14.6%	2.7%	.356	5.63	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.20	5.43	129	85
Luis Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	85
Juan Gomez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	85
Leuris Portorreal R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	20	SP-	4.31	12.9%	10.6%	1.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	179	84
Yovanny Cabrera R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	20	SP	5.16	14.5%	13.7%	2.8%	.238	5.31	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.15	4.39	243	84
Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP	4.86	16.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.311	6.15	21.4%	4.1%	64	+1.29	4.16	109	84
Jasseel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	13.1%	12.0%	1.5%	.275	4.54	17.0%	5.9%	202	+0.20	3.91	374	83
Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.96	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.18	3.61	204	83
Orlando Noriega R 2025 · 4.82 FIP	19	SP	4.82	13.6%	12.5%	2.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	150	83
Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	82
Ben Hansen R 2029 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	12.5%	11.9%	2.4%	.372	4.29	21.5%	13.2%	88	-0.57	4.29	149	82
Luis Mateo R 2028 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	82
Bryce Warrecker R 2028 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.28	21.7%	13.4%	72	-2.15	2.48	135	82
Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP	20	SP-	6.05	14.5%	15.7%	4.0%	.304	5.46	12.5%	-1.1%	65	-0.59	5.31	112	82
Dillon Tate R 2028 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.0%	10.6%	2.7%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.63	3.02	599	82
Ryan Harvey R 2028 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	82
Jeury Espinal R 2025 · 5.08 FIP	19	SP-	5.08	11.7%	12.6%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	114	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	74	17.5%	10.4%	1.02	4.83
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Wily Peralta ('22)	7	71	16.1%	9.8%	1.22	4.66
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99