Jay Driver
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138128vR 119
ERA5.27
FIP5.27
K%18.0%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%3.1%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.4% | 21.6% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 7.45 | 5.34 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.4% | 21.6% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 7.45 | 5.89 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 40 | 0 | 47 | 204 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 0.9% | 1.53 | 3.54 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 40 | 0 | 47 | 204 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 1.53 | 2.87 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 34 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 49 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.2% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 4.11 | 4.11 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 34 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 49 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 1.0% | 4.11 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 31 | 0 | 43 | 186 | 49 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CLE | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 43 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.27 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.27 | 5.27 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 100 | 427 | 92 | 58 | 10 | — | — | 21.6% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.55 | 4.91 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.0% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.27 | 4.89 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 46 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 47 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 47 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 0 | 109 | 462 | 89 | 60 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.59 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 110 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 0 | 145 | 648 | 134 | 93 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.7% | 14.4% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 3.34 | 4.12 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 157 | 0 | 200 | 892 | 185 | 128 | 15 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.7% | 14.4% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 3.34 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jay Driver (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.27 | 18.0% | 14.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.97 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 172 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 91 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 91 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 91 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 91 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 90 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 88 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 88 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.18 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .278 | 4.55 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 107 | -0.63 | 3.94 | 189 | 88 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 88 |
| Mark Sappington R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 1.2% | .323 | 4.34 | 16.6% | -1.3% | 52 | +0.11 | 4.23 | 120 | 87 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 87 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 15.8% | 15.2% | 1.3% | .318 | 6.18 | 11.9% | -1.0% | 16 | +1.78 | 3.36 | 137 | 87 |
| Rob Huber R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 87 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 87 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 86 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 86 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 86 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 86 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.13 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 61 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 218 | 86 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 19.0% | 13.6% | 1.02 | 5.07 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |