Jay Driver — OGILVIE

Jay Driver P Akron RubberDucks

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%18.0%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	51	16	11	2	0%	1.1	31.4%	21.6%	9.8%	3.9%	7.45	5.34	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	51	16	11	2	0%	1.1	31.4%	21.6%	9.8%	3.9%	7.45	5.34	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	10	51	16	11	2	0%	1.1	31.4%	21.6%	9.8%	3.9%	7.45	5.89	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	40	0	47	204	53	23	2	0%	1.2	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	1.0%	1.53	3.62	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	40	0	47	204	53	23	2	0%	1.2	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	1.0%	1.53	3.62	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	40	0	47	204	53	23	2	0%	1.2	26.0%	11.3%	14.7%	1.0%	1.53	2.87	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	207	49	27	2	0%	1.4	18.2%	15.0%	3.2%	1.2%	4.11	4.12	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	207	49	27	2	0%	1.4	18.2%	15.0%	3.2%	1.2%	4.11	4.12	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	34	0	46	207	49	27	2	0%	1.4	23.7%	13.0%	10.6%	1.0%	4.11	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	45	0	63	281	74	39	8	0%	1.4	21.3%	15.5%	5.9%	3.5%	4.57	5.16	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	45	0	63	281	74	39	8	0%	1.4	21.3%	15.5%	5.9%	3.5%	4.57	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	CLE	44	0	62	277	73	39	8	0%	1.4	26.4%	14.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.65	4.24	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CLE	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CLE	60	0	62	264	50	36	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	2.6%	5.14	5.07	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	60	0	62	264	51	35	7	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.4%	6.1%	2.7%	5.03	4.99	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	CLE	26	0	27	114	22	16	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	2.6%	5.14	5.07	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	40	0	42	177	34	24	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.4%	6.1%	2.7%	5.03	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	292	56	40	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.5%	5.7%	2.7%	5.07	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	116	23	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.5%	5.7%	2.7%	5.07	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		128	0	166	743	155	112	16	0%	1.3	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	2.2%	3.75	4.46	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	897	187	135	20	0%	1.3	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	2.2%	3.75	4.46	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Driver (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	18.0%	15.4%	2.6%	—	5.03	19.2%	5.6%	125	-0.31	—	—	—
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	93
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	91
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	91
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	90
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	89
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	89
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	88
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	88
Mark Sappington R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	18.9%	16.2%	1.2%	.323	4.39	16.6%	-1.3%	52	+0.17	4.22	120	88
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	87
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	87
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	87
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	87
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Ronnie Muck R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	24	SU	4.30	15.8%	15.2%	1.1%	.318	5.90	11.9%	-1.0%	16	+1.60	3.24	137	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	18.8%	14.1%	1.02	5.16
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48