Jervis Alfaro
P
Hill City Howlers
+0.6
WAR
Age 22
RHP
5'11" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 2.3 · 2031
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%11.2%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2031
K†4555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Guardians Red | 9 | 9 | 41 | 165 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 13.2% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 1.74 | 3.14 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 17 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 68 | 17 | 2 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 1.1% | 3.39 | 3.23 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 20 | 16 | 89 | 386 | 72 | 24 | 3 | 13.8% | 7.3% | 0.9% | 3.63 | 3.34 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Hill City Howlers | 3 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 28.8% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 1.32 | 2.05 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 75 | 32 | 10 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 103 | 431 | 96 | 37 | 10 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 3.99 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 113 | 475 | 99 | 39 | 12 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 131 | 555 | 119 | 44 | 14 | 21.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.06 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 134 | 47 | 16 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 152 | 642 | 142 | 49 | 17 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 155 | 654 | 145 | 50 | 17 | 22.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 4.01 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 155 | 653 | 144 | 51 | 17 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.04 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 27 | 151 | 638 | 140 | 50 | 17 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.08 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 27 | 147 | 619 | 135 | 49 | 17 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +1.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 142 | 597 | 129 | 48 | 17 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 122 | 47 | 17 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 115 | 46 | 16 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 107 | 45 | 16 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 99 | 43 | 16 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 37 | 211 | 885 | 138 | 70 | 7 | 15.6% | 7.9% | 0.7% | 3.03 | 3.19 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 35 | 200 | 840 | 131 | 66 | 7 | 15.6% | 7.9% | 0.7% | 3.03 | 3.19 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jervis Alfaro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.07 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 389 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.81 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 69 | -0.48 | 3.51 | 157 | 97 |
| Nick Davila R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.89 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.07 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | +0.18 | 3.46 | 341 | 96 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 94 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 93 |
| Jake Christianson R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 93 |
| Riley Thompson R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 93 |
| Logan Martin R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 93 |
| Max Gamboa R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.97 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .334 | 3.99 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.02 | 3.97 | 162 | 93 |
| Miguel Almonte R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 1.8% | .300 | 4.42 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 143 | +0.57 | 3.05 | 247 | 92 |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.99 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 65 | +0.16 | 3.83 | 155 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Will Rudy R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .299 | 5.29 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 113 | +0.50 | 4.79 | 194 | 91 |
| Osmer Morales R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .319 | 4.56 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 345 | +0.26 | 3.14 | 429 | 91 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 91 |
| Houston Roth R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 91 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.11 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.20 | 3.91 | 262 | 91 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.55 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .316 | 4.12 | 20.9% | 15.2% | 298 | +0.57 | 1.58 | 606 | 91 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 2.1% | .343 | 5.07 | 16.9% | 4.1% | 197 | +1.22 | 3.85 | 291 | 91 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .272 | 4.53 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 166 | +0.13 | 3.81 | 319 | 91 |
| Sam Carlson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .334 | 3.73 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 153 | -0.56 | 3.20 | 313 | 91 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.3 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.2 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.1 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.9 | $19M | +$16M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.7 | $18M | +$13M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $10M | $100M | +$90M | ||