Jervis Alfaro — OGILVIE

Jervis Alfaro P Lake County Captains

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%12.6%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	9	9	41	165	32	12	0	100%	4.6	13.2%	9.1%	4.1%	0.0%	1.74	3.14	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	9	9	41	165	32	12	0	100%	4.6	13.2%	9.1%	4.1%	0.0%	1.74	3.14	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Red	9	9	41	165	32	12	0	100%	4.6	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	0.0%	1.74	2.42	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	16.9%	7.4%	9.6%	1.1%	3.39	3.21	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	16.9%	7.4%	9.6%	1.1%	3.39	3.21	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	24.3%	6.1%	18.2%	0.7%	3.39	2.21	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	13.8%	7.3%	6.5%	0.9%	3.63	3.33	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	13.8%	7.3%	6.5%	0.9%	3.63	3.33	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	18.7%	6.2%	12.4%	0.8%	3.63	2.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	8	69	313	64	30	7	38%	3.3	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.77	4.78	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	8	69	313	64	30	7	38%	3.3	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.77	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CLE	9	1	35	148	43	11	3	11%	3.9	29.1%	7.4%	21.6%	2.0%	3.38	2.70	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	12	7	34	165	21	19	4	58%	2.8	12.7%	11.5%	1.2%	2.4%	8.21	4.81	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	5	22	3	2	1	0%	1.1	12.6%	8.4%	4.1%	2.6%	4.89	4.89	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	74	335	67	32	8	—	—	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	2.3%	5.70	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	83	352	53	28	9	100%	6.4	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	2.6%	4.71	4.63	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	86	361	60	28	9	100%	6.1	16.6%	7.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.55	4.47	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	87	366	64	28	9	100%	6.2	17.4%	7.7%	9.8%	2.6%	4.45	4.39	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	87	366	65	28	9	100%	6.2	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.35	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	85	360	64	28	9	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	2.6%	4.39	4.39	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	83	349	62	27	10	100%	6.4	17.7%	7.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.44	4.48	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	79	334	65	24	10	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	74	314	60	24	10	100%	6.2	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.52	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	69	293	55	23	10	100%	6.3	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	3.3%	4.62	4.72	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	64	271	49	23	10	100%	6.4	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	3.5%	4.81	4.94	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	41	173	26	14	4	100%	6.8	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	2.5%	4.71	4.63	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	60	253	42	20	6	100%	6.0	16.6%	7.8%	8.8%	2.6%	4.55	4.47	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	70	296	51	23	8	100%	6.4	17.4%	7.7%	9.8%	2.6%	4.45	4.39	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	76	321	57	24	8	100%	6.3	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.35	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	77	325	58	25	9	100%	6.4	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	2.6%	4.39	4.39	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	76	321	57	25	9	100%	6.3	17.7%	7.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.44	4.48	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	73	308	60	22	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	70	296	56	22	9	100%	6.4	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.52	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	66	279	52	22	9	100%	6.6	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	3.3%	4.62	4.72	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	61	258	47	21	9	100%	6.1	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	3.5%	4.81	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	106	670	2827	506	219	80	100%	6.3	17.9%	7.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.50	4.12	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	151	65	24	100%	6.3	17.9%	7.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.50	4.12	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		67	45	266	1144	170	99	15	67%	4.0	14.9%	8.6%	6.3%	1.3%	3.83	3.67	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	861	128	74	11	67%	4.0	14.9%	8.6%	6.3%	1.3%	3.83	3.67	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jervis Alfaro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	12.6%	8.4%	2.6%	—	4.50	16.3%	8.5%	256	-0.39	—	—	—
Yair Lozoya R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	9.6%	6.5%	2.5%	.288	5.51	10.6%	4.8%	45	+1.05	4.46	172	87
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	87
Alex Romero R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	10.6%	8.9%	1.9%	.314	4.68	13.8%	6.0%	168	+0.30	4.38	235	87
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	86
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.89	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.78	4.11	345	85
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	85
Joshua Torres R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	21	SW	4.47	12.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.308	2.63	23.4%	15.2%	108	-1.84	2.14	217	85
Austin Pettibone R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	10.9%	4.8%	2.2%	.296	5.11	14.6%	-1.6%	64	+1.12	3.99	142	84
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	627	84
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	84
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	83
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	83
Steven Farnworth R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	10.2%	5.7%	2.9%	.249	3.78	9.6%	4.4%	20	-0.78	3.78	115	83
Nick Krauth R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	22	SP-	4.64	14.4%	8.9%	3.0%	.297	4.74	12.5%	2.5%	232	+0.10	4.50	424	83
Kevin Miranda R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	11.5%	5.7%	1.7%	.293	5.48	13.4%	5.0%	67	+1.72	3.76	153	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	82
Charlie Ruegger R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	10.6%	7.9%	4.0%	.325	4.60	16.2%	4.3%	72	-0.83	4.17	117	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81
Austin Schulfer R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	14.0%	11.4%	0.9%	.278	4.15	19.7%	7.6%	208	+0.33	3.28	434	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	78	17.3%	7.8%	1.08	4.54
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17