Jervis Alfaro — OGILVIE

Jervis Alfaro P Hill City Howlers

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%12.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%3.7%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	DSL Guardians Red	9	9	41	165	32	12	0	100%	4.6	13.2%	9.1%	4.1%	0.0%	1.74	3.14	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Guardians Red	9	9	41	165	32	12	0	100%	4.6	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	0.0%	1.74	2.42	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	16.9%	7.4%	9.6%	1.4%	3.39	3.34	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	24.3%	6.1%	18.2%	0.7%	3.39	2.21	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	13.8%	7.3%	6.5%	0.7%	3.63	3.27	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	18.7%	6.2%	12.4%	0.8%	3.63	2.73	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	16	7	61	269	58	24	5	44%	3.8	16.1%	10.4%	5.7%	2.4%	5.04	4.36	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	60	0	62	264	33	23	7	0%	1.0	12.6%	8.9%	3.7%	2.5%	4.94	4.94	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.6%	8.9%	3.7%	2.5%	4.94	4.94	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	CLE	—	—	123	533	91	47	12	—	—	17.1%	8.9%	8.2%	2.2%	4.99	4.65	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	10	10	65	274	41	24	7	100%	6.5	15.2%	8.6%	6.5%	2.5%	4.77	4.69	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	CLE	11	11	66	280	47	24	7	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.4%	8.3%	2.6%	4.62	4.54	+0.1
2029	25	MLB	CLE	11	11	67	284	50	24	7	100%	6.1	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%	2.6%	4.52	4.46	+0.2
2030	26	MLB	CLE	11	11	67	284	51	24	7	100%	6.1	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	2.6%	4.46	4.43	+0.2
2031	27	MLB	CLE	11	11	66	280	50	23	7	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.6%	4.46	4.46	+0.2
2032	28	MLB	CLE	10	10	64	271	48	23	7	100%	6.4	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	2.7%	4.51	4.55	+0.1
2033	29	MLB	CLE	10	10	61	259	46	23	7	100%	6.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.61	4.68	-0.1
2034	30	MLB	CLE	9	9	58	243	42	22	7	100%	6.4	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.86	-0.2
2035	31	MLB	CLE	9	9	54	227	38	21	7	100%	6.0	16.9%	9.4%	7.4%	3.3%	4.94	5.06	-0.3
2027	23	MLB	CLE	5	5	32	135	20	12	3	100%	6.4	15.2%	8.6%	6.5%	2.5%	4.77	4.69	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	CLE	7	7	46	194	32	16	5	100%	6.6	16.7%	8.4%	8.3%	2.5%	4.62	4.54	+0.0
2029	25	MLB	CLE	9	9	55	232	41	19	6	100%	6.1	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%	2.6%	4.52	4.46	+0.1
2030	26	MLB	CLE	9	9	59	249	45	21	6	100%	6.6	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	2.6%	4.46	4.43	+0.1
2031	27	MLB	CLE	10	10	60	253	46	21	7	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.6%	4.46	4.46	+0.1
2032	28	MLB	CLE	9	9	59	249	44	21	7	100%	6.6	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	2.7%	4.51	4.55	+0.0
2033	29	MLB	CLE	9	9	57	241	42	21	7	100%	6.3	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.61	4.68	-0.1
2034	30	MLB	CLE	9	9	54	228	39	21	7	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.1%	8.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.86	-0.2
2035	31	MLB	CLE	8	8	51	215	36	20	7	100%	6.4	16.9%	9.4%	7.4%	3.3%	4.94	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			76	76	472	1994	346	172	55	100%	6.2	17.4%	8.6%	8.7%	2.8%	4.61	4.24	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—			32	32	200	844	147	73	23	100%	6.3	17.4%	8.6%	8.7%	2.8%	4.61	4.24	+2.7
Career	—			62	44	258	1100	166	92	13	71%	4.2	15.1%	8.4%	6.7%	1.2%	3.60	3.53	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—			48	34	200	854	129	71	10	71%	4.2	15.1%	8.4%	6.7%	1.2%	3.60	3.53	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jervis Alfaro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	12.6%	8.9%	2.5%	—	4.56	16.5%	8.0%	198	-0.38	—	—	—
Alex Romero R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	10.6%	8.9%	1.9%	.314	4.41	13.8%	6.0%	168	+0.03	4.31	235	90
Jeremiah Burke R 2025 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.83	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.05	3.83	137	90
Nick Belzer R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.55	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.32	4.23	112	87
Holden Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP-	4.37	14.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.370	4.86	15.8%	4.8%	63	+0.49	4.37	114	85
Will Childers R 2026 · 5.30 FIP	22	SP-	5.30	11.8%	12.1%	3.0%	.305	4.22	20.1%	9.0%	143	-1.08	3.50	202	85
Yair Lozoya R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	9.6%	6.5%	2.4%	.288	5.95	10.6%	4.8%	45	+1.54	4.41	172	85
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	12.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.348	3.83	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.08	3.22	218	85
Cesar Gomez R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP-	3.97	14.0%	9.0%	1.7%	.364	4.91	16.2%	6.8%	196	+0.94	3.97	345	84
Nick Krauth R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.297	4.74	12.5%	2.5%	232	+0.26	4.44	424	84
Dillon Tate R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.0%	10.6%	2.7%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.63	3.02	599	83
TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.310	5.17	21.9%	14.5%	174	+1.21	3.96	245	83
Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 5.03 FIP	22	SP	5.03	14.1%	9.1%	3.6%	.323	5.65	18.6%	8.5%	122	+0.62	4.72	200	83
Brooks Auger R 2027 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	11.8%	11.8%	2.5%	.299	3.81	26.3%	14.4%	46	-1.19	3.81	138	83
Tanner Jones R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	22	SP-	3.80	14.8%	6.9%	2.0%	.317	4.83	13.4%	5.6%	68	+1.03	3.80	108	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP-	4.22	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	.293	5.23	15.4%	6.7%	157	+1.01	3.46	246	83
David Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	.316	3.77	17.7%	10.1%	102	-0.64	3.66	161	83
Justin Dillon R 2028 · 5.23 FIP	24	SP-	5.23	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.89	3.63	239	83
Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	13.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.268	6.27	14.0%	1.8%	36	+1.37	3.00	310	83
Wuilberth Mendez R 2025 · 5.18 FIP	21	SP-	5.18	13.2%	8.9%	3.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	137	83
Eccel Correa R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.2%	1.7%	.265	6.19	14.0%	-3.2%	29	+2.23	3.96	186	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	63	16.8%	8.7%	1.05	4.65
T.J. McFarland ('24)	9	44	13.2%	7.6%	0.86	4.28
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Wily Peralta ('22)	7	71	16.1%	9.8%	1.22	4.66