Jervis Alfaro

P Lake County Captains

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#839ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	17	12	66	3.39	2.21	24.3%	6.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.21
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	20	16	89	3.63	2.73	18.7%	6.2%	—	K 13.8% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.33
2026	22	MIX2 levels	21	8	69	5.77	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	—	K 15.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	23	MLBCLE	—	—	0	5.27	5.27	12.3%	10.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCLE	4	4	26	5.07	5.01	14.7%	9.8%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCLE	6	6	37	4.92	4.85	16.1%	9.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAaron Cook (age 23) · David Rodriguez (age 22) · Nick Trogrlic-Iverson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%12.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	9	9	41	165	32	12	0	100%	4.6	13.2%	9.1%	4.1%	0.0%	1.74	3.14	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Red	9	9	41	165	32	12	0	100%	4.6	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	0.0%	1.74	2.42	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	16.9%	7.4%	9.6%	1.1%	3.39	3.21	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	16.9%	7.4%	9.6%	1.1%	3.39	3.21	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	66	280	68	17	2	71%	3.9	24.3%	6.1%	18.2%	0.7%	3.39	2.21	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	13.8%	7.3%	6.5%	0.9%	3.63	3.33	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	13.8%	7.3%	6.5%	0.9%	3.63	3.33	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	20	16	89	386	72	24	3	80%	4.5	18.7%	6.2%	12.4%	0.8%	3.63	2.73	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	69	313	64	30	7	38%	3.3	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.77	4.78	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	69	313	64	30	7	38%	3.3	15.3%	11.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.77	4.78	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	8	69	313	64	30	7	38%	3.3	20.4%	9.6%	10.9%	2.2%	5.77	3.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.3%	10.3%	2.0%	2.8%	5.27	5.27	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	62	261	38	26	7	100%	6.2	14.7%	9.8%	4.9%	2.8%	5.07	5.01	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	56	235	38	22	7	100%	6.2	16.1%	9.5%	6.6%	2.8%	4.92	4.85	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	230	39	22	6	100%	6.0	16.9%	9.4%	7.5%	2.8%	4.82	4.78	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	53	222	38	21	6	100%	6.6	17.0%	9.4%	7.6%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	228	43	20	7	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.61	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	8	8	50	212	39	19	7	100%	6.3	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.75	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	7	7	45	191	35	18	6	100%	6.5	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	3.3%	4.84	4.92	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	26	110	16	11	3	100%	6.5	14.7%	9.8%	4.9%	2.8%	5.07	5.01	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	37	156	25	15	4	100%	6.2	16.1%	9.5%	6.6%	2.8%	4.92	4.85	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	43	182	31	17	5	100%	6.1	16.9%	9.4%	7.5%	2.8%	4.82	4.78	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	45	190	32	18	5	100%	6.4	17.0%	9.4%	7.6%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	48	203	38	18	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.61	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	46	194	36	18	6	100%	6.6	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.75	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	42	177	32	17	6	100%	6.0	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	3.3%	4.84	4.92	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	287	1210	211	112	36	100%	6.2	17.4%	9.3%	8.1%	2.9%	4.81	4.42	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	147	78	25	100%	6.2	17.4%	9.3%	8.1%	2.9%	4.81	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		67	45	266	1144	170	99	15	67%	4.0	14.9%	8.6%	6.3%	1.3%	3.83	3.67	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	861	128	74	11	67%	4.0	14.9%	8.6%	6.3%	1.3%	3.83	3.67	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 34 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.61 (+0.80)K% 12.7% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.73%	—	×0.770	9.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.52%	—	×1.150	13.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AHill City Howlers · 35 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.84 (+1.14)K% 29.1% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.05%	—	×0.740	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×1.180	8.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 89 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.33 (+0.59)K% 18.7% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.65%	—	×0.740	13.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.22%	—	×1.180	7.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷1.184	×1.300	0.85%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Guardians · 43 IPFIP 1.37 → 2.25 (+0.88)K% 27.3% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.680	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.250	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.37 → 2.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 24 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.82 (+1.19)K% 19.2% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.740	14.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.65%	—	×1.180	10.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.844	×1.300	2.96%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Guardians Red · 41 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.14 (+0.75)K% 19.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.39%	—	×0.680	13.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.250	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷2.400	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jervis Alfaro (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	12.3%	10.3%	2.8%	—	4.89	15.9%	6.3%	172	-0.38	—	—	—
Aaron Cook R 2002 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP-	4.83	9.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.301	4.27	7.8%	0.7%	304	-0.56	3.65	1,406	88
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	87
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	87
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	85
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	84
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.88	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.77	4.11	345	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	83
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	83
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	82
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	82
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	81
Billy Buckner R 2007 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	11.9%	11.2%	3.5%	.305	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	104	-0.70	3.73	252	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	81
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.5%	7.8%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	81
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	81
Jake Garland R 2024 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	11.3%	9.0%	2.7%	.270	4.44	13.2%	5.2%	154	-0.34	3.63	369	81
Charlie Ruegger R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	10.6%	7.9%	4.0%	.325	4.60	16.2%	4.3%	72	-0.83	4.17	117	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	54	16.5%	9.5%	1.12	4.90
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Vinnie Chulk ('12)	1.4	57	16.0%	9.0%	0.98	4.51
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*