Jake Garland
P
Lansing Lugnuts
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'5" / 260 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.4%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%8.7%
IP88
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 3 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 12.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 24 | 19 | 117 | 517 | 90 | 35 | 6 | 13.2% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 5.40 | 3.67 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 27 | 16 | 108 | 462 | 70 | 38 | 11 | 11.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 20 | 12 | 77 | 324 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 64 | 32 | 11 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 90 | 379 | 66 | 33 | 11 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 95 | 399 | 74 | 34 | 12 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.58 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 78 | 35 | 12 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 79 | 35 | 12 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.58 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 77 | 35 | 12 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 74 | 34 | 12 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 70 | 33 | 12 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 66 | 33 | 12 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.84 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 62 | 32 | 12 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 65 | 28 | 11 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.78 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 60 | 27 | 11 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 55 | 26 | 11 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 48 | 307 | 1329 | 169 | 109 | 29 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 31 | 200 | 865 | 110 | 71 | 19 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Garland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.58 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 291 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 94 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 93 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 92 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 91 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 91 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 91 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 90 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 89 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 89 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .250 | 3.69 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 144 | -1.21 | 2.21 | 385 | 88 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 88 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 88 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.04 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .320 | 4.89 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 204 | 88 |
| Wily Peralta R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 87 |
| Luke Irvine R 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 87 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 87 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.51 | 108 | 86 |
| Ryan Long R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.70 | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 365 | 86 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 86 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +0.2 | $1M | -$4M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| Totals | $9M | $12M | +$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.