Jake Garland — OGILVIE

Jake Garland P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 260 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%10.5%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%1.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	1	3	17	4	1	0	33%	1.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	0.0%	12.00	1.86	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	1	3	17	4	1	0	33%	1.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	0.0%	12.00	1.43	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	117	517	90	35	6	79%	4.9	13.2%	7.8%	5.4%	1.2%	5.40	3.63	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	117	517	90	35	6	79%	4.9	13.2%	7.8%	5.4%	1.2%	5.40	3.63	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	117	517	90	35	6	79%	4.9	17.4%	6.8%	10.6%	1.2%	5.40	3.13	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	108	462	70	38	11	59%	4.0	11.3%	9.0%	2.3%	2.7%	3.82	4.78	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	108	462	70	38	11	59%	4.0	11.3%	9.0%	2.3%	2.7%	3.82	4.78	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	108	462	70	38	11	59%	4.0	15.2%	8.2%	6.9%	2.4%	3.82	4.18	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	20	12	77	324	55	22	7	60%	3.9	13.1%	7.8%	5.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.60	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	20	12	77	324	55	22	7	60%	3.9	13.1%	7.8%	5.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.60	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	20	12	77	324	55	22	7	60%	3.9	17.0%	6.8%	10.2%	2.2%	4.19	3.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	39	2	72	324	52	26	7	5%	1.8	13.0%	8.0%	5.1%	2.5%	3.89	4.36	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	39	2	72	324	52	26	7	5%	1.8	13.0%	8.0%	5.1%	2.5%	3.89	4.36	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	OAK	8	0	11	50	8	5	1	0%	1.3	16.0%	10.0%	6.0%	2.0%	3.38	4.11	—
2026	25	AA RAW	OAK	19	0	29	120	23	6	1	0%	1.5	19.2%	5.0%	14.2%	0.8%	2.48	2.57	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	OAK	12	2	32	154	21	15	5	17%	2.7	13.6%	9.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.34	4.96	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	10.5%	9.3%	1.2%	2.9%	5.35	5.35	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	78	349	55	28	8	—	—	15.7%	8.1%	7.5%	2.2%	4.00	4.43	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	93	0	98	412	54	37	12	0%	1.0	13.0%	9.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.17	5.12	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	91	0	96	405	55	37	12	0%	1.1	13.7%	9.1%	4.6%	3.0%	5.10	5.09	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	89	0	93	393	55	36	12	0%	1.0	14.0%	9.2%	4.8%	3.1%	5.11	5.14	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	85	0	89	375	52	35	12	0%	1.0	13.9%	9.3%	4.6%	3.2%	5.18	5.24	-0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	OAK	80	0	84	353	48	34	12	0%	1.0	13.6%	9.6%	3.9%	3.4%	5.32	5.42	-0.8
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	26	18	6	0%	1.0	13.0%	9.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.17	5.12	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	60	0	63	266	36	24	8	0%	1.1	13.7%	9.1%	4.6%	3.0%	5.10	5.09	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	69	0	72	304	42	28	9	0%	1.0	14.0%	9.2%	4.8%	3.1%	5.11	5.14	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	74	312	44	29	10	0%	1.1	13.9%	9.3%	4.6%	3.2%	5.18	5.24	-0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	OAK	69	0	72	304	41	29	10	0%	1.0	13.6%	9.6%	3.9%	3.4%	5.32	5.42	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	0	329	1389	190	129	43	0%	1.1	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	3.1%	5.18	4.83	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	116	78	26	0%	1.1	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	3.1%	5.18	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		113	50	377	1644	209	134	36	44%	3.3	12.7%	8.2%	4.6%	2.2%	4.46	4.27	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	27	200	872	111	71	19	44%	3.3	12.7%	8.2%	4.6%	2.2%	4.46	4.27	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Garland (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	10.5%	9.3%	2.9%	—	5.12	13.6%	4.5%	287	-0.23	—	—	—
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	86
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	86
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	84
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	83
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	83
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	82
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	81
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	81
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	81
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	81
Blake McKnight R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	7.0%	10.8%	0.9%	.277	4.82	9.5%	0.1%	39	+0.43	3.24	225	80
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	80
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	80
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79
Abel Amaya R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	7.0%	4.9%	2.3%	.264	6.88	8.5%	5.1%	12	+2.50	4.38	109	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	78
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	78
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	78
Geno Encina R 2019 · 4.86 FIP	25	SW	4.86	10.4%	7.0%	3.2%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	200	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	88	13.2%	9.3%	1.19	5.20
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77