Naibel Mariano

SS ACL Reds

Age 20 R/R 6'3" / 182 lbs ROK HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKCIN	143	.289/.329/.459	4	9	25	—	.175/.210/.263
2026	19	ROKCIN	249	.265/.336/.372	3	9	34	—	.181/.231/.246
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBCIN	359	.202/.259/.291	4	6	55	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBCIN	99	.209/.267/.312	2	2	61	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBCIN	190	.213/.273/.325	4	4	66	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed64

ISO45

K%40

Z-Con%27

Whiff%25

wOBA20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBraulio Vasquez (age 20) · Jose Paez (age 20) · Gilbert Gomez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 220 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .257 / .288

PA220

HR3

K%27

BB%6

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	—	201	165	31	4	1	1	27	54	8	3	5	188	330	242	572	55	270	27	13	279	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	143	135	39	7	2	4	6	30	2	9	3	289	329	459	788	170	347	21	4	348	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	ACL Reds	—	249	223	59	11	2	3	21	58	3	9	1	265	336	372	708	108	344	23	8	319	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	174	19	2	1	0	18	68	8	3	5	109	225	132	357	23	175	34	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	137	24	4	1	2	4	37	2	9	3	175	210	263	473	88	225	26	3	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	249	232	42	7	1	2	12	83	3	9	1	181	231	246	476	65	274	33	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	174	19	2	1	0	18	68	8	3	5	109	225	132	357	23	178	34	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	—	201	165	31	4	1	1	27	54	8	3	5	188	330	242	572	55	270	27	13	279	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	137	24	4	1	2	4	37	2	9	3	175	210	263	473	88	224	26	3	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	143	135	39	7	2	4	6	30	2	9	3	289	329	459	788	170	347	21	4	348	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	249	232	42	7	1	2	12	83	3	9	1	181	231	246	476	65	270	33	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	249	223	59	11	2	3	21	58	3	9	1	265	336	372	708	108	344	23	8	319	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	173	19	2	1	0	18	68	8	3	5	110	225	133	358	23	175	34	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	136	24	4	1	2	4	37	2	9	3	176	210	265	474	88	225	26	3	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	249	232	42	7	1	2	12	83	3	9	1	181	231	246	476	65	274	33	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	173	19	2	1	0	18	68	8	3	5	110	225	133	358	23	175	34	9	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	136	24	4	1	2	4	37	2	9	3	176	210	265	474	88	225	26	3	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	249	232	42	7	1	2	12	83	3	9	1	181	231	246	476	65	274	33	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	359	331	66	12	2	4	21	98	4	6	2	202	259	291	550	89	271	27	6	249	55	-19	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	34%	288	265	55	10	2	4	18	78	3	6	2	207	266	307	573	99	273	27	6	259	61	-13	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	48%	393	360	78	14	3	7	25	104	5	8	2	212	271	319	590	107	275	26	6	266	66	-16	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	462	424	91	16	3	9	30	121	5	10	3	215	275	328	603	113	277	26	6	271	70	-17	+1	+0	+5	+10	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	507	463	101	18	3	10	33	131	6	11	3	218	279	334	613	117	278	26	7	275	73	-17	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	56%	533	486	106	19	3	11	36	137	6	12	3	219	281	339	620	120	279	26	7	278	74	-16	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	56%	547	499	109	20	3	11	37	141	6	12	4	219	281	338	619	119	279	26	7	278	74	-17	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	60%	551	503	110	20	3	11	37	142	6	12	4	218	280	336	616	118	278	26	7	277	73	-17	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	CIN	62%	549	501	108	19	3	11	37	143	6	11	4	216	278	331	609	115	278	26	7	274	72	-19	+1	-1	+6	+12	-0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	CIN	63%	541	494	106	19	3	10	36	143	6	10	4	214	275	326	601	112	277	26	7	271	69	-20	+0	-1	+6	+12	-0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	CIN	63%	532	487	102	18	3	9	35	142	5	9	4	211	272	318	590	107	275	27	7	266	66	-21	+0	-2	+6	+12	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	34%	99	92	19	3	1	2	6	27	1	2	1	209	267	312	579	103	274	27	6	261	61	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	48%	190	174	37	6	1	4	12	50	2	4	1	213	273	325	597	111	276	26	6	269	66	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	251	230	51	9	2	5	16	66	3	5	2	217	277	334	611	117	278	26	6	274	70	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	281	258	57	10	2	6	18	73	3	6	2	219	280	341	621	122	279	26	6	279	73	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	56%	298	273	60	10	2	7	20	77	3	7	2	221	283	345	628	124	280	26	7	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	56%	308	280	63	11	2	7	21	79	4	7	2	221	283	345	628	124	280	26	7	281	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	60%	328	299	65	11	2	7	22	85	4	7	2	220	282	343	624	123	279	26	7	280	73	-10	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	CIN	62%	339	309	68	12	2	7	23	88	4	7	2	218	280	338	618	120	279	26	7	277	72	-11	+1	-0	+4	+7	-0.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	CIN	63%	339	309	68	12	2	7	23	89	4	6	2	216	277	332	609	116	277	26	7	274	69	-12	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	CIN	63%	337	309	65	11	2	6	22	90	3	6	2	213	273	324	598	111	276	27	7	269	66	-13	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2770	2533	553	95	18	58	183	724	31	57	18	218	279	339	618	120	280	26	7	276	65	-97	+4	-3	+30	+60	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	130	22	4	14	43	170	7	13	4	219	279	340	619	121	281	26	7	276	65	-23	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5716	5228	1092	193	33	100	371	1530	69	126	43	209	270	316	586	107	274	27	6	264	65	-184	+7	-4	+55	+111	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	124	22	4	11	42	174	8	14	5	208	270	314	584	106	274	27	6	264	65	-23	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	2,991	55	60	215	273	328	+32	+21	1.1	1.3
/162	664	12	13	+7.1	+4.7	0.2	pk7: 2
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Billy Hunter'53-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,052 PA	3.1	2,052	16	23	213*	254*	312*	+20	+13	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	5	7	+6.4	+4.3	-0.9	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Naibel Mariano (OGILVIE)	20	33→38	35→40	51→56	42	201/257/288	88	271	3	4	27%	6%	55	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	75	292	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	193/262/269	76	307	6	15	36%	7%	53	-2.1	189/270/268	79	286	5	32	33%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Jose Paez 2014 · A	20	43	37→45	50	39	203/249/286	83	278	4	11	27%	5%	50	-2.3	205/256/282	77	317	4	10	34%	6%	52	-2.2	192/248/248	56	315	4	11	38%	6%	38	-0.6
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→39	40	52→50	42	194/257/287	92	271	7	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/277/282	78	309	4	8	32%	9%	61	-1.5	194/278/266	72	301	3	7	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Sammy Hernandez 2024 · A	20	37	43→40	51→50	40	188/254/301	113	262	11	5	31%	6%	57	-1.8	203/291/298	95	270	8	9	26%	9%	71	-0.8	201/300/298	97	262	9	13	24%	10%	72	-0.4
✕Liover Peguero 2021 · A	20	45→49	38→45	50→55	41	212/263/292	80	293	5	9	28%	6%	57	-1.8	229/272/346	117	315	12	22	30%	5%	73	-0.6	229/273/352	123	303	13	24	28%	5%	72	-0.6
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	37→42	39→40	48→50	44	183/255/263	80	245	6	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	199/291/294	95	292	8	8	32%	10%	70	-0.8	186/290/280	94	280	9	10	33%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Leonel Espinoza 2023 · A	20	37→45	39→40	50→55	44	182/256/262	80	244	7	11	27%	7%	49	-2.4	209/274/296	87	297	6	14	30%	6%	63	-1.4	209/269/290	80	296	6	18	30%	6%	56	-1.0
✕Danny De Andrade 2024 · A	20	41	42→45	51→50	45	201/277/305	104	269	9	11	28%	8%	67	-1.1	201/270/315	114	278	10	11	30%	7%	66	-1.1	190/254/309	120	266	11	10	31%	6%	56	-1.1
✕David Kandilas 2011 · A	20	41→44	38→45	51→55	39	199/238/277	78	271	5	10	28%	5%	44	-2.8	216/269/318	102	283	7	15	25%	6%	65	-1.2	214/274/312	98	280	7	19	25%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Cutter Coffey 2024 · A	20	38→45	39→45	49→50	44	185/262/271	86	271	7	13	32%	8%	53	-2.1	201/271/317	116	296	12	10	34%	8%	67	-1.1	199/268/315	116	299	12	9	35%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Denzer Guzman 2024 · A	20	39→49	40→45	48→50	39	191/246/287	96	288	7	7	35%	7%	50	-2.3	209/268/322	113	303	11	10	33%	7%	67	-1.1	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A	20	44	40	54→45	41	212/260/305	93	270	8	9	24%	5%	59	-1.6	212/271/300	88	287	7	7	27%	6%	63	-1.4	190/257/269	79	268	7	6	30%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Pablo Olivares 2018 · A	20	44	36→40	49→50	43	207/279/278	72	283	3	10	26%	6%	61	-1.5	227/298/305	78	294	6	13	23%	6%	74	-0.5	220/297/294	73	283	5	14	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	37→45	40→45	54→50	42	182/250/279	97	263	6	9	32%	7%	50	-2.3	207/280/322	115	282	9	13	28%	9%	71	-0.8	209/284/324	115	280	10	14	27%	9%	71	-0.6
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	41→44	36→50	48→45	43	194/262/264	70	258	3	9	25%	6%	51	-2.2	218/281/363	145	322	16	4	35%	7%	81	-0.1	210/279/360	150	310	18	4	36%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→46	38→45	53→50	43	192/253/278	86	262	5	13	27%	7%	51	-2.3	219/294/329	110	303	9	13	28%	9%	78	-0.3	221/301/335	114	300	11	14	28%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Keyber Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	39→47	41→45	51→50	42	194/248/295	101	262	9	7	29%	6%	53	-2.1	210/260/291	81	292	6	11	29%	6%	56	-1.9	212/256/312	100	274	9	12	25%	5%	58	-1.4
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Yorberto Mejicano 2021 · A	20	44	36→45	53→45	48	207/271/275	68	270	3	10	23%	8%	57	-1.8	225/279/332	107	302	11	8	28%	6%	73	-0.6	213/267/311	98	282	10	9	27%	6%	61	-0.6

Naibel Mariano

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps