Noah Palmese
P
FCL Blue Jays
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.1%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 25 | 0 | 38 | 176 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.4% | 15.2% | -1.7% | 3.8% | 5.87 | 5.98 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 289 | 60 | 33 | 8 | — | — | 20.8% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 0 | 28 | 116 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 68 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 25 | 0 | 38 | 176 | 24 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.4% | 15.2% | -1.7% | 3.8% | 5.87 | 5.98 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 0 | 200 | 918 | 123 | 139 | 35 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.4% | 15.2% | -1.7% | 3.8% | 5.87 | 5.98 | -1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Palmese (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 28 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 92 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 90 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 90 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 89 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 89 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 88 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 88 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 88 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 88 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 88 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.63 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | +0.04 | 2.94 | 385 | 88 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 87 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 86 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.92 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.98 | 3.94 | 122 | 86 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.37 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .245 | 4.44 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 158 | +1.07 | 2.76 | 198 | 86 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 1.16 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |