Esmil Valencia — OGILVIE

Esmil ValenciaCF Beloit Sky Carp

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 182 lbs A+ HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION161 act + 159 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .266 / .311

PA159

HR2

SB9

K%33

BB%4

BABIP316

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$9M	+$9M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$8M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$7M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$49M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	190	41	8	4	1	12	41	6	11	5	216	284	316	599	100	265	19	6	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	183	48	9	4	2	19	31	6	11	5	262	351	388	739	126	301	15	9	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	160	151	34	2	2	1	3	40	5	16	5	225	264	285	549	60	297	25	2	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	160	149	43	3	2	2	5	28	5	16	5	289	333	376	709	87	342	18	3	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	407	93	14	4	6	22	137	7	64	19	229	280	327	607	98	322	31	5	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	398	111	14	4	8	30	99	7	64	19	279	339	394	734	116	347	22	7	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A+	MIA	—	161	147	25	7	1	2	7	66	5	10	9	170	233	272	505	102	284	41	4	220	27	-13	-2	+0	+1	+5	-1.0
YTD	20	A+	MIA	—	161	144	33	9	1	3	10	48	5	10	9	229	302	368	670	139	316	30	6	299	87	-2	-2	+0	+1	+5	0.1
ROS	20	A+	MIA	0%	159	148	32	6	1	2	7	52	3	9	5	216	266	311	577	95	322	33	4	266	62	-7	-0	+1	+1	+5	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	MIA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						317	0	0	247	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	20	A+	MIA	—	162	148	25	7	1	2	7	66	5	10	9	169	231	270	502	101	280	41	4	220	27	-13	-2	+0	+1	+5	-1.0
TOT	20	A+	MIA	—	320	295	57	13	2	4	14	118	8	19	14	193	249	292	541	98	301	37	4	243	44	-20	-2	+1	+1	+9	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIA	43%	520	478	109	20	4	9	27	161	10	26	11	228	283	343	627	115	318	31	5	281	73	-16	+1	+2	+2	+15	0.4
2028	22	MLB	MIA	61%	574	526	122	22	4	12	32	171	11	29	13	232	290	357	647	125	317	30	6	291	81	-13	+1	+3	+2	+16	0.9
2029	23	MLB	MIA	68%	612	561	132	24	4	14	35	178	11	31	14	235	293	367	660	132	316	29	6	297	85	-10	+1	+3	+2	+17	1.3
2030	24	MLB	MIA	70%	625	572	136	24	5	15	37	179	11	32	14	238	297	376	673	138	317	29	6	301	88	-8	+1	+3	+2	+18	1.6
2031	25	MLB	MIA	70%	633	578	139	25	5	16	38	181	12	32	14	240	301	384	685	144	317	29	6	303	90	-7	+1	+3	+2	+18	1.7
2032	26	MLB	MIA	71%	638	582	140	25	5	16	39	182	12	32	14	241	302	383	685	143	317	29	6	303	90	-7	+1	+3	+2	+18	1.8
2033	27	MLB	MIA	69%	637	580	139	25	5	16	40	182	12	32	14	240	302	383	685	143	316	29	6	303	90	-7	+1	+3	+2	+18	1.8
2034	28	MLB	MIA	69%	631	575	136	24	4	16	40	181	11	30	13	237	299	376	674	139	316	29	6	303	90	-7	+1	+2	+2	+18	1.6
2035	29	MLB	MIA	67%	620	565	133	24	4	15	39	179	11	28	12	235	298	372	669	136	316	29	6	301	88	-8	+1	+1	+2	+18	1.4
2027	21	MLB	MIA	43%	225	207	46	8	2	4	12	70	4	11	5	222	278	338	616	116	313	31	5	262	59	-10	+0	+1	+1	+6	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	MIA	61%	350	322	74	13	3	7	19	104	6	18	8	230	285	354	639	124	312	30	5	273	67	-13	+0	+2	+1	+10	0.0
2029	23	MLB	MIA	68%	417	382	88	16	3	9	24	121	8	21	9	230	290	359	648	128	311	29	6	279	72	-13	+1	+2	+1	+12	0.3
2030	24	MLB	MIA	70%	435	398	93	17	3	10	26	125	8	22	10	234	294	367	661	133	311	29	6	283	75	-12	+0	+2	+2	+12	0.4
2031	25	MLB	MIA	70%	445	407	96	17	3	11	27	127	8	22	10	236	296	373	670	138	311	29	6	285	76	-12	+0	+2	+2	+13	0.5
2032	26	MLB	MIA	71%	450	412	96	17	3	11	27	128	8	23	10	233	293	369	662	136	311	28	6	285	77	-12	+1	+2	+2	+13	0.5
2033	27	MLB	MIA	69%	442	404	95	17	3	11	27	126	8	22	10	235	296	374	670	139	311	29	6	286	77	-12	+0	+2	+2	+13	0.5
2034	28	MLB	MIA	69%	433	395	92	16	3	11	27	124	8	21	9	233	295	372	668	139	311	29	6	285	76	-12	+1	+2	+2	+12	0.4
2035	29	MLB	MIA	67%	414	378	87	15	3	10	26	120	7	18	8	230	292	365	657	135	310	29	6	283	75	-12	+0	+1	+1	+12	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3612	3306	767	136	26	84	215	1045	65	178	79	232	292	365	657	133	311	29	6	281	73	-108	+4	+15	+13	+102	2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	138	24	5	15	39	188	12	32	14	232	293	365	658	133	311	29	6	281	73	-20	+1	+3	+2	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	6462	5913	1386	243	51	139	371	1864	122	372	153	234	293	363	657	129	316	29	6	292	82	-132	+13	+24	+23	+183	11.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	139	24	5	14	37	187	12	37	15	234	292	361	653	128	314	29	6	292	82	-13	+1	+2	+2	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	183	48	9	4	2	19	31	6	11	5	262	351	388	739	126	301	15	9	330	111	+3	+0	—	—	+6	0.9
2024	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	160	149	43	3	2	2	5	28	5	16	5	289	333	376	709	87	342	18	3	319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	398	111	14	4	8	30	99	7	64	19	279	339	394	734	116	347	22	7	326	108	+4	+5	—	—	+13	2.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Corey Pattersonlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,422 PA	10	4,422	116	215	254	292	403	-2	+56	15.8	16.6
	/162	664	17	32	254	292	403	-0.3	+8.4	2.4	pk7: 17
#3Jonathan Villarlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,934 PA	10	3,934	101	239	255	322	397	+24	-40	12.8	13.9
	/162	664	17	40	255	322	397	+4.0	-6.8	2.2	pk7: 15
#4Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#5Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,613	87	179	238	295	376	+13	+12	6.7	6.5
	/162	664	16	33	238	295	376	+2.4	+2.2	1.2	pk7: 6
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmil Valencia (OGILVIE)	20	50	45	62	42	193/249/292	98	301	4	19	37%	4%	44	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Delino DeShields 2013 · A	20	46→55	41→45	61→65	44	223/285/323	100	300	8	36	27%	7%	69	-0.4	229/299/333	104	311	8	37	27%	8%	78	+0.2	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	47→54	44→50	61→55	44	226/282/354	129	300	9	28	27%	7%	76	+0.1	240/293/376	136	286	14	16	21%	7%	86	+0.8	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Gorkys Hernández 2008 · A	20	53→59	39→45	58→55	43	253/288/340	88	302	6	27	18%	4%	74	-0.1	244/288/325	81	326	5	18	25%	5%	70	-0.3	263/321/381	118	325	11	16	21%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Jorge Mateo 2015 · A	20	43→46	41→50	60→65	44	207/270/305	98	282	7	30	28%	7%	58	-1.2	205/250/310	105	293	7	37	31%	5%	50	-1.7	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Ryan Brett 2013 · A	21	51→58	39→45	59→60	44	241/287/331	90	299	5	27	21%	6%	72	-0.2	249/289/356	107	304	8	23	20%	5%	79	+0.3	249/285/358	109	299	9	21	19%	4%	74	-0.0
●Peter Bourjos 2009 · A	22	49→56	42→50	60	37	237/270/352	115	307	9	27	26%	4%	70	-0.3	244/288/378	134	302	11	27	22%	5%	84	+0.6	249/298/396	147	304	12	28	22%	5%	91	+1.0
●Victor Robles 2017 · A	20	52→54	42→50	57→60	42	248/318/359	110	309	8	24	21%	5%	93	+1.3	241/308/369	128	302	10	24	22%	5%	92	+1.2	241/311/384	143	300	12	27	22%	6%	93	+1.0
✕Darren Ford 2008 · A	22	49→53	39→45	60→65	42	230/285/317	87	331	7	35	31%	7%	67	-0.5	218/279/309	91	312	7	34	30%	7%	63	-0.9	223/278/332	109	308	9	36	29%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Luisangel Acuña 2023 · AA	21	46→55	44→45	58→60	43	225/285/338	113	311	12	31	31%	8%	73	-0.1	243/288/343	100	312	9	35	24%	6%	76	+0.0	248/291/339	91	311	7	40	22%	5%	72	-0.2
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	51→60	39→40	61→65	43	238/293/326	89	318	5	34	26%	6%	73	-0.1	239/307/330	91	313	4	33	23%	8%	80	+0.4	262/328/346	84	335	4	54	21%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Eury Pérez 2011 · A	21	57→65	38→40	61→65	43	269/309/351	82	326	5	32	19%	4%	85	+0.7	268/297/330	62	331	3	33	19%	3%	74	-0.1	296/331/390	95	359	3	37	18%	4%	102	+0.6
✕Jay Allen II 2023 · A	20	43→40	40	59→55	45	204/296/300	96	298	7	32	31%	8%	70	-0.3	186/279/271	85	278	7	28	33%	8%	56	-1.3	192/275/286	94	267	10	24	30%	7%	55	-1.0
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	52→62	36→45	60→65	43	244/281/309	66	292	2	33	17%	4%	63	-0.9	265/291/347	82	307	4	36	14%	3%	76	+0.1	272/311/362	90	305	8	25	13%	4%	86	+0.7
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	60→65	51	234/321/343	109	284	7	29	19%	8%	91	+1.1	235/310/360	125	296	12	18	23%	8%	91	+1.1	230/307/354	124	286	8	13	21%	9%	82	+0.1
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→48	38→40	65	43	223/280/308	85	293	5	35	25%	6%	63	-0.8	217/271/302	85	297	5	34	27%	6%	58	-1.2	209/263/288	80	288	5	36	28%	6%	48	-1.5
✕Rymer Liriano 2012 · A	21	46→52	46→50	57→55	40	226/273/357	131	303	13	28	29%	6%	73	-0.1	238/287/364	126	333	12	23	30%	5%	81	+0.4	235/294/359	124	338	12	20	32%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Kyren Paris 2022 · A	20	47→49	42→50	60	41	204/287/317	113	360	8	24	42%	9%	69	-0.4	200/283/333	133	319	14	29	38%	9%	72	-0.2	182/275/315	133	288	15	35	39%	10%	62	-0.6
✕Marcus Sanders 2006 · A	20	53→55	39→30	60	49	247/320/333	86	326	6	31	24%	9%	87	+0.8	217/288/286	69	291	3	28	24%	8%	61	-1.0	201/274/253	52	271	0	32	23%	8%	44	-1.1
●Elvis Andrus 2009 · AA	20	52→61	37→50	55→60	43	245/293/318	73	319	5	32	24%	6%	71	-0.3	258/320/332	74	307	4	32	16%	8%	85	+0.7	277/330/410	133	307	11	23	13%	7%	107	+2.4
✕Wilderd Patiño 2023 · A	22	47→51	42→40	61→65	33	220/277/322	102	347	10	37	37%	4%	66	-0.6	207/271/290	83	350	8	34	40%	5%	56	-1.3	193/261/259	66	342	6	37	42%	6%	40	-1.6