Esmil Valencia — OGILVIE

Esmil ValenciaCF Beloit Sky Carp

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 182 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION261 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .111 / .111

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%4

BABIP283

ISO102

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE41

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	183	48	9	4	2	19	31	6	11	5	262	351	388	739	126	301	15	9	330	110	+2	+0	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	160	149	43	3	2	2	5	28	5	16	5	289	333	376	709	87	342	18	3	319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	398	111	14	4	8	30	99	7	64	19	279	339	394	734	116	347	22	7	326	107	+4	+5	—	—	+10	1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	190	38	7	3	1	12	43	6	11	5	200	269	284	553	84	243	20	6	246	53	-12	+0	—	—	+5	-0.7
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	285	25	2	235	45	-10	+1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	407	91	13	3	6	22	139	7	64	19	224	275	314	590	91	311	31	5	263	64	-19	+5	—	—	+10	-0.4
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	190	38	7	3	1	12	43	6	11	5	200	269	284	553	84	248	20	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	183	48	9	4	2	19	31	6	11	5	262	351	388	739	126	301	15	9	330	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	288	25	2	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	160	149	43	3	2	2	5	28	5	16	5	289	333	376	709	87	342	18	3	319	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	407	91	13	3	6	22	139	7	64	19	224	275	314	590	91	317	31	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	398	111	14	4	8	30	99	7	64	19	279	339	394	734	116	347	22	7	326	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	191	38	7	3	1	12	43	6	11	5	199	269	283	552	84	243	20	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	285	25	2	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	410	91	13	3	6	22	139	7	64	19	222	275	312	587	90	311	31	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	211	191	38	7	3	1	12	43	6	11	5	199	269	283	552	84	243	20	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	151	33	2	1	1	3	40	5	16	5	219	258	265	523	46	285	25	2	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	442	410	91	13	3	6	22	139	7	64	19	222	275	312	587	90	311	31	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	MIA	—	261	241	38	10	1	5	10	92	5	15	9	158	207	270	477	112	221	35	4	216	32	-21	-1	+0	+1	+6	-1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	MIA	—	61	55	13	2	1	1	4	20	1	7	5	236	300	364	664	127	343	33	7	294	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ RAW	MIA	—	200	182	38	12	1	6	10	47	4	8	4	209	265	385	650	176	241	24	5	283	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A+ MLE	MIA	0%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	111	111	111	222		290	33	0	257	60	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	20	A+ MLE	MIA	—	270	250	39	10	1	5	10	95	5	16	9	156	204	264	468	108	219	35	4	217	33	-21	-0	+0	+1	+6	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	43%	477	443	97	18	3	10	23	137	8	22	9	219	270	341	611	122	293	29	5	276	73	-16	+1	+2	+2	+10	-0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	61%	516	476	108	20	4	12	27	143	8	24	10	227	280	361	641	134	294	28	5	286	80	-13	+1	+2	+2	+11	0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	68%	557	512	118	22	4	14	31	150	9	26	10	230	286	371	657	141	294	27	6	292	84	-11	+1	+3	+2	+12	0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	70%	601	552	128	24	4	16	35	160	9	28	11	232	289	377	665	145	295	27	6	297	87	-9	+1	+3	+2	+13	1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	70%	633	581	135	25	4	17	37	167	10	30	12	232	290	377	667	145	295	26	6	299	88	-9	+1	+3	+2	+14	1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	71%	638	585	136	25	4	18	38	169	10	30	12	232	291	381	672	149	295	26	6	300	89	-8	+1	+3	+2	+14	1.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	69%	637	583	136	25	4	18	39	169	10	30	12	233	293	383	675	149	295	27	6	300	89	-8	+1	+3	+2	+14	1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	69%	631	577	134	25	4	17	39	168	10	28	11	232	292	378	670	146	294	27	6	299	89	-9	+1	+2	+2	+14	1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	67%	620	567	131	24	4	17	38	166	10	26	10	231	291	377	668	146	294	27	6	297	87	-9	+1	+1	+2	+13	0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	66%	609	556	128	24	4	16	38	165	10	23	9	230	291	374	665	144	293	27	6	295	86	-10	+1	+1	+2	+13	0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	65%	595	544	123	23	4	15	37	163	9	19	8	226	286	366	652	140	291	27	6	291	83	-12	+1	-0	+2	+13	0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	65%	576	527	116	21	3	14	35	160	9	15	6	220	280	351	631	131	288	28	6	285	79	-14	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	43%	207	192	40	7	1	4	10	59	3	10	4	208	259	318	576	109	285	29	5	256	73	-7	+0	+1	+1	+4	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	61%	314	289	63	11	2	7	17	87	5	15	6	218	273	343	616	125	285	28	5	266	80	-8	+1	+1	+1	+7	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	68%	380	350	78	14	3	9	21	102	6	18	7	223	279	357	636	134	286	27	6	273	84	-7	+1	+2	+1	+8	0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	70%	418	384	88	16	3	11	24	111	7	20	8	229	287	372	659	143	286	27	6	277	87	-6	+1	+2	+1	+9	0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	70%	445	409	93	17	3	12	26	118	7	21	8	227	285	372	657	144	287	27	6	279	88	-6	+1	+2	+2	+10	0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	71%	450	413	94	17	3	12	27	119	7	21	8	228	286	370	657	143	286	26	6	280	89	-6	+1	+2	+2	+10	0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	69%	442	405	92	16	3	12	27	117	7	21	8	227	287	370	657	143	286	26	6	280	89	-6	+1	+2	+2	+10	0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	69%	433	396	89	16	3	11	27	115	7	19	8	225	286	364	650	139	286	27	6	279	89	-6	+1	+2	+2	+9	0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	67%	414	378	85	15	3	11	26	111	7	17	7	225	287	368	655	143	286	27	6	278	87	-6	+1	+1	+1	+9	0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	66%	401	367	81	14	3	10	25	109	6	15	6	221	281	357	638	136	285	27	6	275	86	-7	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	65%	388	355	77	14	2	9	24	106	6	13	5	217	278	344	622	127	283	27	6	272	83	-8	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	65%	373	341	74	13	2	9	23	104	6	10	4	217	278	346	624	129	280	28	6	267	79	-9	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4665	4279	954	170	31	117	277	1258	74	200	79	223	282	359	641	136	286	27	6	275	82	-82	+8	+15	+17	+101	6.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	133	24	4	16	39	175	10	28	11	223	282	357	640	134	287	27	6	275	82	-11	+1	+2	+2	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7912	7260	1653	298	53	192	454	2142	130	393	149	228	285	363	648	135	294	27	6	289	82	-128	+12	+23	+25	+154	8.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	135	24	4	16	37	176	11	32	12	227	284	361	645	134	292	27	6	289	82	-12	+1	+2	+2	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Corey Pattersonlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,422 PA	6.7	4,422	116	215	254	292	403	-2	+56	15.8	16.6
/162	664	17	32	-0.3	+8.4	2.4	pk7: 17
#3Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#4Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	4.2	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
/162	664	14	30	+2.4	+12.6	2.5	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	7.0	4,667	123	198	231	286	375	+17	+16	7.0	6.3
/162	664	17	28	+2.4	+2.3	1.0	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmil Valencia (OGILVIE)	20	50	45	62	41	209/256/313	104	290	5	18	30%	4%	60	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Delino DeShields 2014 · A	21	50→55	40→45	62→65	45	235/299/336	101	315	7	37	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/304/333	102	309	7	35	25%	9%	82	+0.0	239/318/333	94	320	6	34	25%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	46→54	43→50	61→55	45	223/282/346	122	298	9	28	27%	7%	77	-0.3	240/293/371	131	287	13	16	20%	7%	87	+0.4	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Gorkys Hernández 2008 · A	20	53→57	39→45	58→55	43	253/288/340	88	302	6	27	18%	4%	77	-0.3	245/289/326	81	324	4	18	24%	5%	74	-0.6	256/315/372	117	316	11	16	22%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Jorge Mateo 2015 · A	20	43→48	41→50	60→65	44	207/270/305	98	282	7	30	28%	7%	63	-1.4	210/256/311	101	298	6	37	30%	5%	59	-1.7	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Ryan Brett 2013 · A	21	50→57	39→45	59→60	44	240/285/332	92	295	6	27	20%	6%	74	-0.5	248/288/354	106	301	8	23	20%	5%	80	-0.1	249/285/355	106	299	8	21	19%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Victor Robles 2017 · A	20	51→52	42→50	57→60	42	244/314/356	112	302	8	24	21%	5%	92	+0.7	243/310/375	132	303	10	24	22%	5%	95	+0.9	246/315/392	146	305	12	27	22%	6%	97	+0.9
✕Peter Bourjos 2009 · A	22	49→55	42→50	60	37	237/270/352	115	307	9	27	26%	4%	74	-0.6	246/290/378	132	304	10	27	22%	5%	87	+0.4	251/300/396	145	307	11	28	21%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Rymer Liriano 2012 · A	21	47→52	44→45	57→55	40	228/275/350	122	307	11	28	29%	6%	75	-0.5	238/288/357	119	329	10	23	29%	5%	82	-0.0	235/295/354	119	333	11	20	31%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Luisangel Acuña 2023 · AA	21	47→55	44→45	58→60	44	226/287/337	111	315	12	31	30%	8%	77	-0.3	244/289/339	95	312	8	35	23%	6%	77	-0.3	249/291/334	85	310	6	40	21%	5%	74	-0.5
✕Eury Pérez 2011 · A	21	56→64	38→40	60→65	42	266/306/346	80	324	5	32	19%	4%	84	+0.2	267/295/326	59	329	3	33	19%	3%	76	-0.4	292/329/379	87	355	3	37	18%	4%	98	+0.4
✕Jay Allen II 2023 · A	20	44→46	40	59→55	44	203/295/297	94	301	7	32	32%	8%	72	-0.7	187/280/274	87	279	8	28	33%	8%	62	-1.4	197/281/296	99	271	10	24	29%	7%	64	-1.0
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	51→59	39→40	61→65	43	238/293/326	89	318	5	34	26%	6%	76	-0.4	240/307/329	89	313	4	33	22%	8%	82	+0.0	263/328/345	82	334	3	54	21%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	59→65	52	232/323/340	107	283	6	29	19%	9%	92	+0.7	232/310/353	121	294	11	18	23%	8%	90	+0.6	226/310/337	111	288	7	11	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕José Peraza 2014 · A	20	52→62	36→45	61→65	43	243/282/310	67	291	2	33	17%	4%	68	-1.0	266/291/344	78	308	3	36	14%	3%	78	-0.3	272/310/361	89	305	7	25	13%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→51	39→40	65	43	224/282/312	88	295	6	35	25%	6%	69	-0.9	222/277/311	89	296	6	34	25%	6%	67	-1.1	216/271/303	86	289	6	36	26%	6%	60	-1.3
✕Marcus Sanders 2006 · A	20	53→55	39→30	60	49	247/320/333	86	326	6	31	24%	9%	88	+0.5	217/288/286	69	291	3	28	24%	8%	65	-1.2	201/274/253	52	271	0	32	23%	8%	51	-1.2
●Desmond Jennings 2008 · A	21	52→59	42→50	57→60	47	250/310/361	111	295	9	29	18%	6%	91	+0.7	255/317/373	118	302	8	32	17%	7%	96	+1.0	243/323/397	154	290	15	28	21%	9%	102	+1.5
✕Darren Ford 2008 · A	22	49→53	39→45	60→65	42	230/285/317	87	331	7	35	31%	7%	71	-0.8	218/280/307	89	312	6	34	30%	7%	67	-1.1	227/283/330	104	311	8	36	28%	6%	70	-0.6
✕Manuel Margot 2015 · A	20	48→52	44→50	56→60	47	236/285/359	123	266	11	25	16%	6%	81	-0.1	242/282/357	115	280	8	26	16%	5%	79	-0.2	245/302/387	142	288	13	20	19%	7%	91	+0.5
●Elvis Andrus 2009 · AA	20	52→61	37→50	55→60	43	247/294/318	72	319	4	32	23%	6%	74	-0.5	258/320/331	73	306	4	32	16%	8%	87	+0.4	277/330/414	137	310	11	19	14%	7%	105	+1.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps