Esmil Valencia — OGILVIE

Esmil ValenciaCF Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 182 lbs A HR -4%BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.4 · 2031

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .273 / .322

PA320

HR6

SB14

K%28

BB%6

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

45→45

SPD

62→62

FLD

55→55

EYE

36↗41

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.4	$22M	+$21M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.4	$23M	+$22M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.4	$24M	+$23M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.3	$23M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.0	$21M	+$14M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.8	$19M	+$11M
Totals		$23M		$132M	+$110M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	211	190	41	8	4	1	12	42	6	11	5	.216	.284	.316	.599	.100	.267	20	6	.254	53	-11	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
2024	18	ROK	FCL Astros	160	151	34	2	2	1	3	40	5	16	5	.225	.264	.285	.549	.060	.297	25	2	.237	40	-11	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.5
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	442	407	91	13	3	6	22	138	7	64	19	.224	.275	.314	.590	.091	.316	31	5	.264	60	-20	+5	+0	+2	+13	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIA	320	294	65	10	3	6	18	89	5	14	4	.221	.278	.337	.614	.116	.290	28	6	.270	65	-13	+1	+1	+1	+9	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 11%	MIA	514	467	105	16	4	11	33	137	9	21	6	.225	.289	.347	.636	.122	.291	27	6	.286	77	-13	+2	+2	+2	+15	0.7
2028	22	MLB 28%	MIA	568	514	118	18	4	14	40	145	9	22	6	.230	.297	.362	.658	.132	.292	26	7	.297	85	-9	+2	+3	+2	+16	1.4
2029	23	MLB 48%	MIA	605	545	127	20	4	16	45	151	10	21	6	.233	.303	.372	.676	.139	.292	25	7	.304	91	-6	+2	+3	+2	+17	1.8
2030	24	MLB 62%	MIA	629	565	134	21	5	17	49	155	10	21	6	.237	.309	.382	.692	.145	.292	25	8	.309	94	-4	+2	+3	+2	+18	2.1
2031	25	MLB 80%	MIA	642	575	137	21	5	18	51	157	11	20	5	.238	.312	.386	.698	.148	.293	24	8	.312	97	-2	+2	+3	+2	+18	2.4
2032	26	MLB 94%	MIA	647	578	137	21	5	18	53	158	11	19	5	.237	.313	.384	.697	.147	.293	24	8	.313	98	-1	+2	+3	+2	+18	2.4
2033	27	MLB	MIA	646	576	137	21	5	18	54	158	11	18	5	.238	.315	.385	.701	.148	.293	24	8	.313	98	-1	+2	+3	+2	+18	2.4
2034	28	MLB	MIA	640	571	136	21	5	18	54	158	10	17	4	.238	.315	.387	.702	.149	.293	25	8	.312	97	-2	+2	+2	+2	+18	2.3
2035	29	MLB	MIA	629	561	131	20	4	17	53	157	10	16	4	.234	.311	.374	.685	.141	.292	25	8	.310	96	-3	+2	+2	+2	+18	2.0
2036	30	MLB	MIA	618	551	128	20	4	17	52	156	10	15	3	.232	.310	.376	.686	.143	.291	25	8	.307	93	-5	+2	+1	+2	+18	1.8
2037	31	MLB	MIA	604	538	124	19	4	16	51	155	10	13	2	.230	.309	.370	.679	.139	.289	26	8	.303	90	-7	+2	+0	+2	+17	1.5
2038	32	MLB	MIA	585	522	118	18	4	15	49	154	9	12	2	.226	.303	.362	.666	.136	.288	26	8	.299	87	-9	+2	-1	+2	+17	1.1
2039	33	MLB	MIA	556	496	110	16	4	13	46	150	9	11	1	.222	.299	.349	.648	.127	.287	27	8	.293	83	-11	+2	-2	+2	+16	0.7
2040	34	MLB	MIA	508	453	99	15	3	12	42	141	8	10	1	.219	.296	.344	.641	.126	.285	28	8	.287	78	-13	+2	-3	+2	+14	0.3
2041	35	MLB	MIA	451	404	86	12	3	10	37	130	7	9	0	.213	.290	.332	.622	.119	.283	29	8	.279	72	-14	+2	-4	+2	+13	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9975	8958	2058	312	75	244	764	2571	167	350	89	.230	.302	.363	.665	.133	.293	26	8	.298	86	-157	+34	+17	+36	+283	21.8
/ 162G	—			650	584	134	20	5	16	50	168	11	23	6	.229	.303	.363	.666	.134	.292	26	8	.298	86	-10	+2	+1	+2	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	211	183	48	9	4	2	19	31	6	11	5	.262	.351	.388	.739	.126	.301	15	9	.330	111	+3	+0	—	—	+6	0.9
2024	18	ROK	FCL Astros	160	149	43	3	2	2	5	28	5	16	5	.289	.333	.376	.709	.087	.342	18	3	.319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	442	398	111	14	4	8	30	99	7	64	19	.279	.339	.394	.734	.116	.347	22	7	.326	108	+4	+5	—	—	+13	2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmil Valencia (OGILVIE)	20	50	45	62	41	.216/.273/.322	.106	.290	6	14	28%	6%	65	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Delino DeShields 2013 · A	20	44→53	41→45	60→65	43	.214/.272/.314	.100	.286	9	34	28%	7%	62	-0.9	.227/.295/.329	.102	.306	8	37	26%	8%	76	+0.0	.228/.305/.328	.100	.305	6	38	25%	9%	75	+0.0
●Esteury Ruiz 2019 · A	20	44→54	43→50	58→70	37	.212/.260/.329	.117	.307	9	25	33%	5%	60	-1.0	.203/.254/.314	.111	.301	11	30	34%	5%	54	-1.4	.264/.338/.396	.132	.327	13	74	22%	6%	108	+1.6
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	45→53	43→50	61→55	44	.220/.278/.344	.124	.294	9	27	28%	7%	72	-0.2	.237/.291/.371	.134	.285	13	17	21%	7%	85	+0.7	.244/.299/.375	.131	.283	14	12	19%	6%	86	+0.8
✕Jorge Mateo 2015 · A	20	43→46	41→50	60→65	44	.207/.271/.306	.098	.280	8	29	28%	7%	59	-1.1	.207/.252/.306	.099	.292	6	37	30%	5%	50	-1.7	.217/.264/.366	.149	.272	14	44	25%	5%	70	-0.2
●Desmond Jennings 2007 · A	20	46→56	40→50	56→60	44	.220/.278/.309	.089	.282	7	23	24%	6%	63	-0.9	.248/.308/.365	.117	.293	10	28	18%	7%	89	+1.0	.252/.331/.406	.154	.301	15	28	21%	9%	106	+2.2
✕Victor Robles 2017 · A	20	50	42→50	56→60	42	.239/.308/.351	.112	.293	8	24	21%	5%	88	+0.9	.241/.307/.368	.127	.301	10	24	22%	5%	91	+1.1	.244/.313/.382	.138	.303	11	27	22%	6%	94	+1.0
✕Luisangel Acuña 2022 · A	20	46→56	43→45	55→60	44	.226/.284/.332	.106	.300	11	24	28%	7%	72	-0.2	.237/.288/.345	.108	.317	11	33	27%	7%	76	+0.1	.245/.290/.348	.103	.312	10	39	24%	6%	74	-0.1
●Peter Bourjos 2009 · A	22	48→55	42→55	59→60	38	.235/.270/.350	.115	.306	8	25	26%	4%	69	-0.4	.244/.288/.378	.134	.302	11	27	22%	5%	85	+0.7	.250/.299/.403	.153	.305	12	28	22%	5%	94	+1.2
✕Rymer Liriano 2012 · A	21	47→52	44→45	56→55	40	.229/.276/.350	.120	.305	11	27	28%	6%	72	-0.2	.237/.287/.357	.120	.328	11	24	29%	6%	79	+0.3	.232/.293/.353	.121	.333	12	20	32%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Roman Quinn 2014 · A	21	42→52	43→45	56→65	40	.210/.265/.316	.105	.279	11	25	28%	6%	59	-1.1	.236/.295/.337	.101	.319	9	33	27%	6%	77	+0.1	.253/.313/.351	.098	.343	7	42	26%	7%	84	+0.4
✕Gorkys Hernández 2008 · A	20	53→57	39→45	58→55	43	.253/.289/.341	.088	.299	6	27	18%	4%	74	-0.1	.246/.290/.328	.082	.324	5	19	24%	5%	72	-0.2	.251/.311/.366	.115	.310	11	16	22%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Johan Rojas 2022 · A	21	45→55	44→45	55→65	43	.221/.274/.341	.120	.281	11	21	25%	6%	69	-0.4	.232/.276/.342	.110	.293	9	36	23%	5%	70	-0.3	.258/.299/.360	.102	.324	7	41	22%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Ryan Brett 2013 · A	21	51→55	39→45	59→60	45	.241/.288/.332	.092	.293	5	26	20%	6%	72	-0.2	.248/.289/.357	.109	.301	8	23	20%	5%	79	+0.3	.248/.284/.359	.111	.298	9	21	20%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	44→49	40→45	59→55	41	.210/.263/.309	.099	.290	7	20	29%	6%	56	-1.3	.223/.279/.336	.113	.300	9	18	27%	6%	70	-0.3	.225/.286/.343	.117	.296	10	18	26%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Manuel Margot 2015 · A	20	47→53	44→50	56→60	47	.229/.278/.348	.120	.255	11	25	16%	6%	73	-0.1	.239/.278/.351	.112	.276	9	26	16%	5%	73	-0.1	.243/.300/.388	.144	.285	13	20	19%	7%	88	+0.8
✕Forrest Wall 2016 · A	20	45→55	42→45	57→70	45	.220/.273/.329	.110	.277	8	17	23%	7%	66	-0.6	.218/.270/.313	.095	.291	8	18	26%	6%	59	-1.1	.260/.332/.371	.111	.354	9	50	27%	9%	98	+1.0
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	50	41→45	59→65	52	.234/.322/.340	.106	.284	6	29	19%	9%	90	+1.0	.231/.312/.347	.116	.294	10	19	23%	8%	88	+0.9	.235/.317/.335	.100	.305	7	18	23%	9%	81	+0.1
✕Derek Hill 2016 · A	20	43→53	37→50	57→60	45	.204/.260/.279	.076	.268	4	23	25%	7%	47	-1.9	.204/.254/.275	.071	.306	3	27	32%	6%	43	-2.2	.250/.300/.402	.152	.328	16	23	28%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Jake Marisnick 2011 · A	20	43→53	41→60	55	41	.206/.266/.309	.103	.273	7	18	26%	6%	59	-1.1	.234/.289/.359	.125	.298	11	19	24%	5%	81	+0.4	.232/.296/.435	.203	.309	26	18	33%	6%	101	+0.9
✕Maximo Rivera 2014 · A	21	45	40→45	53→60	43	.219/.272/.307	.089	.279	8	21	24%	6%	59	-1.1	.213/.262/.283	.070	.295	4	11	27%	6%	49	-1.8	.198/.239/.245	.047	.274	3	7	27%	5%	25	-0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)