Esmil Valencia

CF Beloit Sky Carp
Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 182 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1534ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKHOU160.289/.333/.37621647—.219/.258/.265
202519AMIA442.279/.339/.39486466—.235/.284/.328
202620A+/AMIA261.215/.273/.38071538—.170/.219/.303
2027PROJMLE21MLBMIA1.206/.251/.3070061-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB22MLBMIA71.211/.259/.3231468-0.0
2029PROJ49% MLB23MLBMIA144.215/.265/.3343773-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed65
ISO62
Z-Con%59
K%52
Whiff%45
wRC+17
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 89%
CompsJohan Rojas (age 22) · Tyler Goeddel (age 21) · Jorge Mateo (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .251 / .307
PA1
HR0
K%28
BB%4
BABIP271
ISO116
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.20.20.10.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2034Arb-1$1M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-2$1M———
2036Arb-3$7M———
Totals $3M $1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Astros Orange — 211183 48942 19316 115 262351388739 126301 159 330 36 — — — — — —
202418 ROKFCL Astros — 160149 43322 5285 165 289333376709 87342 183 319 47 — — — — — —
202519 AJupiter Hammerheads — 442398 1111448 30997 6419 279339394734 116347 227 326 66 — — — — — —
202620 A+Beloit Sky Carp — 200182 381216 10474 84 209265385650 176241 245 283 38 — — — — — —
202620 AJupiter Hammerheads — 6155 13211 4201 75 236300364664 127343 337 294 37 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Astros Orange — 211188 33631 14376 115 176255255510 80202 187 222 36 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 160151 33211 3405 165 219258265523 46287 252 237 47 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 442408 961246 211337 6419 235284328613 93315 305 266 66 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEBeloit Sky Carp — 200185 31915 7604 84 168214308522 141204 304 224 38 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 6156 10111 3271 75 179233286519 107312 445 223 37 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Astros Orange — 211188 33631 14376 115 176255255510 80209 187 222 36 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Astros Orange — 211183 48942 19316 115 262351388739 126301 159 330 36 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 160151 33211 3405 165 219258265523 46288 252 237 47 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWFCL Astros — 160149 43322 5285 165 289333376709 87342 183 319 47 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 442408 961246 211337 6419 235284328613 93327 305 266 66 — — — — — —
202519 A RAWJupiter Hammerheads — 442398 1111448 30997 6419 279339394734 116347 227 326 66 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE2 teams — 261241 421125 10875 159 174223299521 124240 334 224 38 — — — — — —
202620 A+ RAW2 teams — 261237 511427 14675 159 215273380653 165262 265 286 38 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Astros Orange — 211189 33631 14376 115 175255254509 79202 187 222 36 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 160151 33211 3405 165 219258265523 46287 252 237 47 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 442411 961246 211337 6419 234284326610 92315 305 266 66 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE2 teams — 261244 421125 10875 159 172223295518 123229 334 224 38 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 160151 33211 3405 165 219258265523 46287 252 237 47 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 442411 961246 211337 6419 234284326610 92315 305 266 66 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE2 teams — 261244 421125 10875 159 172223295518 123229 334 224 38 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEMIA 0% 375351 741336 161045 187 212258321578 108280 284 259 61 -17 +1 +2 +1 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202721 MLB CTXMIA 0% 11 0000 000 00 206251307558 101271 00 250 61 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEMIA 35% 204190 40714 9553 104 218266338603 120281 274 269 68 -8 +0 +1 +1 +4 -0.1
202923 MLB MLEMIA 49% 296275 611127 15784 155 222271349620 127282 265 276 73 -9 +1 +1 +1 +6 0.0
203024 MLB MLEMIA 53% 368341 781439 19955 197 225276356632 131283 265 281 77 -10 +1 +2 +1 +8 0.2
203125 MLB MLEMIA 55% 406376 8515310 221045 217 226279360639 134284 265 285 79 -10 +1 +2 +1 +9 0.3
203226 MLB MLEMIA 56% 428395 9016311 241096 218 227281363644 135284 256 286 80 -10 +1 +2 +2 +9 0.4
203327 MLB MLEMIA 55% 437403 9116311 251126 218 226280360640 134284 266 285 79 -11 +1 +2 +2 +9 0.3
203428 MLB MLEMIA 55% 436403 9016310 241136 197 224278356634 131283 266 283 77 -12 +1 +1 +2 +9 0.2
203529 MLB MLEMIA 53% 427395 8816310 241125 167 222276350625 128282 266 279 75 -13 +0 +1 +2 +9 -0.1
203630 MLB MLEMIA 53% 416385 841529 231105 136 219272343615 123280 266 275 72 -14 +0 -0 +1 +9 -0.3
202822 MLB CTXMIA 35% 7167 13201 3191 41 211259323582 112272 274 260 68 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.0
202923 MLB CTXMIA 49% 144134 29513 7382 73 215265334598 119273 265 267 73 -5 +0 +1 +1 +3 -0.0
203024 MLB CTXMIA 53% 194179 39714 10503 104 217269340609 123274 265 272 77 -5 +0 +1 +1 +4 0.1
203125 MLB CTXMIA 55% 222205 45815 12573 114 219272344616 126275 265 275 79 -6 +1 +1 +1 +5 0.2
203226 MLB CTXMIA 56% 238220 48816 13613 124 219274346620 127275 265 277 80 -6 +1 +1 +1 +5 0.2
203327 MLB CTXMIA 55% 240222 48816 13623 124 219273344617 126274 265 276 79 -6 +1 +1 +1 +5 0.2
203428 MLB CTXMIA 55% 238220 47815 13623 114 217271340611 123274 265 273 77 -6 +1 +1 +1 +5 0.1
203529 MLB CTXMIA 53% 228210 45815 13603 93 215269335603 120273 266 270 75 -7 +1 +0 +1 +5 -0.0
203630 MLB CTXMIA 53% 219202 43715 12583 73 212265328593 116271 265 266 72 -7 +0 -0 +1 +5 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 17941659 35761840 9646724 8330 215268334602 119273 265 272 70 -50 +5 +6 +6 +39 0.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650601 12922314 351699 3011 215269331600 116273 265 272 70 -18 +2 +2 +2 +14 0.2
Career— MLE — 46484297 9431633497 240122870 269100 219272341613 121282 265 271 70 -104 +8 +12 +13 +77 0.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650601 13323514 3417210 3814 221274346621 125284 265 271 70 -19 +1 +2 +2 +14 0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 200 PAwOBA .281 → .224 (−57)K% 23.5% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.50%÷1.000×1.270——29.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.00%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0273.65%
HBP% /PA2.00%—×0.790—×1.0271.62%
Singles /BIP14.07%÷1.000×0.920×0.950×1.02712.63%
Doubles /BIP8.89%÷1.000×0.810×0.950×1.0277.02%
Triples /BIP0.74%÷1.000×0.850×0.950×1.0270.61%
Home runs /BIP4.44%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0273.65%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .281 → .224; ISO .176 → .137; BABIP .241 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 61 PAwOBA .291 → .223 (−69)K% 32.8% → 44.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.79%÷1.000×1.360——44.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.56%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0154.59%
HBP% /PA1.64%—×0.780—×1.0151.30%
Singles /BIP25.71%÷1.000×0.920—×1.01524.01%
Doubles /BIP5.71%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0154.81%
Triples /BIP2.86%÷1.000×0.910—×1.0152.64%
Home runs /BIP2.86%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0152.32%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .291 → .223; ISO .127 → .094; BABIP .343 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 442 PAwOBA .322 → .266 (−56)K% 22.4% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.40%÷1.014×1.360——30.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.79%÷1.018×0.690—×1.0304.74%
HBP% /PA1.58%—×0.780—×1.0301.27%
Singles /BIP28.43%÷1.019×0.920×0.983×1.03026.00%
Doubles /BIP4.68%÷0.947×0.830×0.983×1.0304.16%
Triples /BIP1.34%÷0.900×0.910×0.983×1.0301.37%
Home runs /BIP2.68%÷1.035×0.800—×1.0302.13%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .322 → .266; ISO .116 → .094; BABIP .347 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Astros · 160 PAwOBA .312 → .237 (−75)K% 17.5% → 25.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.50%÷1.006×1.440——25.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.12%÷1.033×0.620—×1.0081.89%
HBP% /PA3.12%—×0.720—×1.0082.27%
Singles /BIP29.75%÷0.984×0.820×1.021×1.00825.51%
Doubles /BIP2.48%÷1.000×0.720×1.021×1.0081.84%
Triples /BIP1.65%÷0.936×0.720×1.021×1.0081.31%
Home runs /BIP1.65%÷1.111×0.780—×1.0081.17%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .312 → .237; ISO .087 → .061; BABIP .342 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 211 PAwOBA .327 → .222 (−104)K% 14.7% → 17.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.69%÷1.039×1.220——17.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.00%÷0.997×0.700—×1.0086.37%
HBP% /PA2.84%—×0.700—×1.0082.01%
Singles /BIP21.71%÷0.982×0.680×0.984×1.00814.90%
Doubles /BIP5.92%÷0.905×0.600×0.984×1.0083.89%
Triples /BIP2.63%÷0.900×0.600×0.984×1.0081.74%
Home runs /BIP1.32%÷1.330×0.470—×1.0080.47%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 96, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .327 → .222; ISO .126 → .075; BABIP .301 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).