Luis Morales

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

AAARP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+OAK	22	22	81	4.22	3.64	24.9%	10.7%	—	K 19.1% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.91
2025	22	MIX3 levels	33	23	138	3.52	3.77	26.5%	9.4%	1.9	K 23.4% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.06
2026	23	MIX2 levels	35	14	87	8.76	6.59	19.8%	14.6%	-2.0	K 17.5% · BB 13.5% · FIP 6.26
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	16	16	87	5.25	5.42	22.2%	12.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBOAK	17	17	97	5.07	5.07	23.1%	11.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBOAK	21	21	124	4.99	4.96	23.6%	10.8%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.3M2028Arb-2$1M2029Arb-3$4M2030Arb-4$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo88

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Jake Lee (age 24) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.25

FIP5.42

K%22.2%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1014.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

SI (11%)

CH (9%)

SL-2.2 (34%)

FB-4.8 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.3M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-4	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	44	180	53	15	2	93%	3.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	0.0%	2.86	2.53	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	44	180	53	15	2	93%	3.1	29.4%	8.3%	21.1%	1.1%	2.86	2.30	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.22	4.91	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.22	4.91	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	2.4%	4.22	3.64	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.2%	3.52	4.06	+1.4
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.2%	3.52	4.06	+1.4
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	26.5%	9.4%	17.2%	3.2%	3.52	3.77	+1.9
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	87	444	88	65	22	40%	2.5	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	5.3%	8.76	6.26	-1.7
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	87	444	88	65	22	40%	2.5	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	5.3%	8.76	6.26	-1.7
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	14	87	444	88	65	22	40%	2.5	19.8%	14.6%	5.2%	5.0%	8.76	6.59	-2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	11	65	289	56	32	15	73%	4.3	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	5.2%	5.71	5.87	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	16	16	87	367	82	44	15	100%	5.4	22.2%	12.1%	10.1%	4.1%	5.25	5.42	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	144	607	140	67	24	100%	5.8	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	4.0%	5.13	5.13	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	156	658	155	71	26	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	3.9%	5.04	5.01	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	158	665	156	71	26	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	3.9%	5.01	5.01	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	158	665	155	71	27	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.8%	12.6%	4.0%	5.05	5.08	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	150	635	144	70	26	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.0%	11.8%	4.2%	5.16	5.24	-0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	141	597	132	67	26	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.3%	10.8%	4.4%	5.33	5.45	-0.9
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	97	410	95	45	16	100%	5.7	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	3.9%	5.07	5.07	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	124	524	123	56	20	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	3.8%	4.99	4.96	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	135	570	134	61	22	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	3.8%	4.96	4.96	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	141	595	139	64	23	100%	5.9	23.3%	10.8%	12.6%	3.9%	4.99	5.02	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	137	578	132	64	24	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.0%	11.8%	4.1%	5.10	5.18	-0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	131	553	122	62	24	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.3%	10.8%	4.3%	5.27	5.39	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	139	829	3517	800	384	143	97%	5.8	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	4.1%	5.11	4.80	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	848	193	93	34	97%	5.8	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	4.1%	5.11	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		104	72	350	1527	313	171	53	69%	3.4	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.5%	4.91	4.71	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	41	200	872	179	98	30	69%	3.4	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.5%	4.91	4.71	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	22.2%	12.1%	4.1%	—	5.05	23.4%	12.6%	457	-0.37	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	77
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	76
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	75
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	75
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	74
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	73
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	73
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	73
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	73
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	72
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	72
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.5%	13.9%	142	-2.14	2.93	177	72
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	71
Conor Grammes R 2021 · 5.74 FIP	24	SP	5.74	20.4%	11.4%	5.3%	.417	4.35	22.9%	4.9%	124	-1.39	4.11	171	71
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	132	22.8%	11.0%	1.61	5.16
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Eric Erickson ('14-'22, 2 WAR*)	4.1	164	25.8%*	11.1%*	1.49*	4.56*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56