Luis Aguilar

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 176 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	13	5	48	2.44	2.52	22.5%	8.3%	—	K 15.3% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.51
2025	21	MIX3 levels	18	7	63	2.98	3.43	25.3%	7.8%	—	K 17.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.86
2026	22	AHOU	3	2	11	7.59	6.94	27.7%	10.6%	—	K 27.7% · BB 10.6% · FIP 6.78
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	59	0	62	4.84	4.84	18.3%	9.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	26	0	27	4.72	4.67	19.3%	9.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	40	0	42	4.62	4.57	20.0%	9.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsHouston Roth (age 23) · Patrick Halligan (age 23) · Anyelo Gómez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%18.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	35	158	41	13	3	38%	2.7	17.6%	10.3%	7.4%	2.8%	4.84	4.45	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	35	158	41	13	3	38%	2.7	25.9%	8.2%	17.7%	1.9%	4.84	2.99	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	48	204	46	17	1	38%	3.7	15.3%	10.4%	4.9%	0.7%	2.44	3.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	48	204	46	17	1	38%	3.7	15.3%	10.4%	4.9%	0.7%	2.44	3.51	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	48	204	46	17	1	38%	3.7	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	0.5%	2.44	2.52	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	63	257	65	20	7	39%	3.5	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.7%	2.98	4.86	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	63	257	65	20	7	39%	3.5	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.7%	2.98	4.86	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	7	63	257	65	20	7	39%	3.5	25.3%	7.8%	17.5%	2.7%	2.98	3.43	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	11	47	13	5	4	67%	3.6	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	8.5%	7.59	6.78	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	11	47	13	5	4	67%	3.6	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	8.5%	7.59	6.78	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	11	47	13	5	4	67%	3.6	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	8.5%	7.59	6.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	59	0	62	262	48	26	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.9%	8.3%	3.0%	4.84	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	60	0	63	266	51	25	8	0%	1.1	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.67	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	270	54	25	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.57	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	270	55	24	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.1%	11.3%	3.0%	4.56	4.53	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	26	0	27	114	22	11	3	0%	1.0	19.3%	9.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.67	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	40	0	42	177	35	16	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.57	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	49	0	51	215	44	20	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.1%	11.3%	3.0%	4.56	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	0	120	506	101	46	15	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.20	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	77	25	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		47	19	157	666	118	67	19	40%	3.3	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	2.9%	3.55	4.48	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	24	200	847	150	86	25	40%	3.3	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	2.9%	3.55	4.48	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Aguilar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	18.3%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.59	19.9%	10.7%	191	-0.25	—	—	—
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	90
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	89
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	89
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	88
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	88
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	87
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	87
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	87
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	87
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	87
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	86
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	85
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	85
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	85
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	85
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	83
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.39	16.6%	6.3%	297	+0.17	3.64	392	83
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	63	19.5%	9.4%	1.15	4.68
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*