Drew Davies

1B Daytona Tortugas

Age 21 L/R 6'3" / 185 lbs A HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ACIN	184	.238/.378/.320	2	6	63	—	.199/.306/.263
2025	19	INTLAdelaide Gian…	145	.276/.366/.370	1	0	114	—
2026	20	ACIN	405	.278/.423/.415	7	5	93	—	.234/.347/.344
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBCIN	515	.181/.292/.266	6	6	64	-0.7
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBCIN	156	.190/.300/.293	3	2	71	-0.5
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBCIN	237	.196/.304/.309	5	3	76	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Whiff%75

BB%74

Chase%74

Z-Con%67

K%64

Speed43

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 81%

CompsKier Meredith (age 22) · Imanol Vargas (age 21) · Jaden Rudd (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .290 / .264

PA320

HR4

K%28

BB%12

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	127	98	21	4	0	2	26	35	2	1	0	214	389	316	705	102	306	28	20	335	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	29	28	5	1	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	179	207	214	421	36	294	38	3	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	184	147	35	6	0	2	33	40	0	6	3	238	378	320	698	82	306	22	18	322	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Reds	—	127	101	26	5	2	2	23	35	2	2	1	257	405	406	811	149	375	28	18	368	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	145	127	35	9	0	1	17	35	1	0	1	276	366	370	736	94	374	24	12	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	405	316	88	18	2	7	69	89	10	5	4	278	423	415	837	136	355	22	17	374	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	127	109	15	2	0	1	15	51	2	1	0	138	254	183	437	46	246	40	12	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	184	156	31	4	0	2	24	54	0	6	3	199	306	263	568	64	272	29	13	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	127	109	19	4	1	1	15	50	2	2	1	174	286	257	543	83	294	39	12	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	405	337	79	15	2	6	48	121	10	5	4	234	347	344	691	110	316	30	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	156	134	20	3	0	2	19	63	2	1	0	149	265	216	481	67	257	40	12	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	156	126	26	5	0	2	27	46	2	1	0	206	355	294	648	87	304	29	17	308	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	456	390	73	12	2	4	58	152	3	8	5	187	297	259	556	72	291	33	13	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	456	375	96	20	2	5	73	110	3	8	5	256	381	360	741	104	346	24	16	340	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	405	337	79	15	2	6	48	121	10	5	4	234	347	344	691	110	335	30	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	405	316	88	18	2	7	69	89	10	5	4	278	423	415	837	136	355	22	17	374	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	156	134	20	3	0	2	19	63	2	1	0	149	265	216	481	67	246	40	12	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	456	392	73	12	2	4	58	152	3	8	5	186	297	258	555	71	281	33	13	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	405	344	79	15	2	6	48	121	10	5	4	230	347	337	684	108	316	30	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	156	134	20	3	0	2	19	63	2	1	0	149	265	216	481	67	246	40	12	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	456	392	73	12	2	4	58	152	3	8	5	186	297	258	555	71	281	33	13	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	405	344	79	15	2	6	48	121	10	5	4	230	347	337	684	108	316	30	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	515	441	80	15	2	6	62	145	7	6	3	181	292	266	558	85	250	28	12	263	64	-22	+0	+0	-9	+11	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	34%	454	391	74	14	2	7	54	124	6	5	3	189	298	287	586	99	254	27	12	273	71	-16	-0	+0	-8	+10	-1.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	48%	490	422	82	15	2	9	58	132	7	6	3	194	302	302	605	108	256	27	12	280	76	-14	+0	+0	-9	+11	-1.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	529	455	91	17	2	10	62	140	7	6	3	199	305	313	618	114	259	26	12	285	79	-13	+0	+0	-9	+11	-1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	571	491	99	18	2	12	67	150	8	7	3	202	307	319	626	118	261	26	12	288	81	-13	+0	+0	-10	+12	-1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	56%	581	501	102	19	2	12	67	151	8	7	3	204	307	324	631	120	262	26	12	289	82	-12	+0	+0	-10	+13	-1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	582	502	102	19	2	12	67	152	8	6	3	203	306	321	627	118	262	26	12	288	81	-13	+0	+0	-10	+13	-1.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	578	499	100	18	2	12	67	152	7	4	3	201	304	316	620	115	261	26	12	285	79	-14	-0	-1	-10	+13	-1.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	34%	156	134	27	5	1	3	19	43	2	2	1	190	300	293	593	103	254	28	12	276	71	-5	+0	+0	-3	+3	-0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	48%	237	204	40	7	1	5	28	64	3	3	1	196	304	309	613	112	257	27	12	283	76	-7	+0	+0	-4	+5	-0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	279	240	49	9	1	6	33	74	4	3	2	201	307	320	626	119	260	27	12	288	79	-7	-0	+0	-5	+6	-0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	312	269	55	10	1	7	36	82	4	4	2	204	308	327	635	123	262	26	12	291	81	-7	+0	+0	-6	+7	-0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	56%	323	279	57	10	1	7	37	84	4	4	2	206	309	331	640	125	263	26	11	293	82	-7	+0	+0	-6	+7	-0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	320	276	56	10	1	7	37	84	4	3	2	205	308	328	636	123	263	26	12	291	81	-7	-0	+0	-6	+7	-0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	316	273	55	10	1	7	36	83	4	2	2	203	306	323	629	120	262	26	11	288	79	-8	-0	-0	-6	+7	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1943	1675	339	61	7	42	226	514	25	21	12	202	306	322	629	120	263	26	12	288	76	-48	-1	-0	-35	+42	-4.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	560	113	20	2	14	76	172	8	7	4	202	306	320	626	118	262	26	12	288	76	-16	-0	-0	-12	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5122	4396	871	159	19	90	605	1427	71	58	32	198	305	304	609	106	268	28	12	280	76	-110	-0	-1	-73	+89	-9.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	558	110	20	2	11	77	181	9	7	4	197	304	299	604	102	268	28	12	280	76	-17	-0	-0	-12	+14	-1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dan Johnson'05-'15 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,625 PA	2.4	1,625	57	1	226*	330*	401*	-30	-3	2.2	2.8
/162	664	23	0	-12.2	-1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#3Dave Nicholson'60-'67 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,661 PA	2.5	1,661	61	6	213*	321*	402*	-16	-6	2.5	2.5
/162	664	24	2	-6.6	-2.4	1.0	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Herbie Moran'08-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,518 PA	3.8	2,518	2	103	236*	329*	348*	-18	-17	1.0	1.0
/162	664	1	27	-4.7	-4.5	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.4	2,264	42	25	198	301	309	-17	+0	-1.2	-0.6
/162	664	12	7	-5.1	+0.0	-0.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Davies (OGILVIE)	21	35	25	50	60	180/290/264	84	250	4	3	28%	12%	64	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	197/266/263	67	278	4	12	29%	8%	53	-2.1	208/305/278	70	291	4	26	27%	9%	72	-0.7	223/339/272	49	296	2	35	22%	11%	80	-0.0
✕Imanol Vargas 2019 · A	21	39→43	38→50	44→45	55	184/287/262	78	251	5	9	26%	12%	61	-1.5	200/279/332	132	299	14	7	35%	9%	74	-0.6	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Jaden Rudd 2023 · A	20	39→36	39→30	49→50	49	187/279/277	90	259	6	12	28%	9%	61	-1.5	182/288/248	66	288	3	14	34%	10%	59	-1.6	160/281/212	51	264	2	16	35%	11%	47	-1.3
✕Ricardo Burgos 2007 · A	20	41	38→40	48→40	58	195/300/280	85	257	5	6	24%	12%	70	-0.8	208/284/320	112	295	10	5	30%	9%	72	-0.7	190/261/331	141	264	19	2	34%	8%	66	-0.3
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2024 · A	21	40	38→45	48→45	46	192/271/267	75	284	6	7	32%	9%	55	-1.9	191/263/273	82	291	6	4	33%	8%	53	-2.1	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Aaron Shipman 2013 · A	21	41→39	35→30	44→50	49	190/271/250	60	279	2	9	30%	10%	52	-2.2	227/310/295	68	314	2	16	25%	10%	76	-0.4	246/336/306	60	332	1	21	23%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Daury Arias 2023 · A	21	37→38	41→40	46→45	52	185/276/283	98	231	9	8	23%	10%	62	-1.4	181/255/259	78	262	6	9	31%	8%	48	-2.5	161/238/228	67	236	5	9	32%	8%	31	-1.9
✕Jose Perez 2024 · A	20	39	38→40	45	60	185/303/270	86	239	4	7	22%	13%	70	-0.9	192/299/267	75	259	4	6	24%	12%	67	-1.1	184/302/248	64	242	3	5	22%	13%	61	-0.6
✕Mike Papi 2015 · A	22	38→48	41→45	50→45	49	188/265/282	94	249	9	7	27%	9%	57	-1.8	200/279/308	108	281	9	5	30%	9%	68	-1.0	213/297/336	123	282	13	4	27%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	43→40	37→45	49→55	47	202/280/276	75	285	5	6	29%	9%	61	-1.5	191/285/298	107	268	9	9	29%	11%	69	-0.9	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Daniel Perez 2024 · A	22	41	39→40	50→45	51	195/282/284	89	255	6	7	25%	10%	64	-1.3	182/245/259	77	336	4	7	43%	7%	43	-2.8	119/174/178	60	293	2	6	57%	6%	-4	-1.7
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	42	39→45	42→45	49	199/281/287	88	284	6	6	30%	10%	64	-1.3	180/242/262	82	268	8	5	34%	7%	43	-2.8	183/231/259	76	238	8	4	26%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Jake Fox 2024 · A	21	45→44	41→40	51→50	48	214/291/317	103	293	7	11	28%	9%	74	-0.5	206/285/303	97	281	6	12	26%	10%	69	-0.9	203/291/297	94	273	5	13	25%	11%	68	-0.5
✕Angel Acosta 2024 · A	21	42	38→40	40→50	48	201/276/279	78	249	5	5	20%	7%	60	-1.6	211/268/276	65	259	4	9	19%	6%	55	-1.9	219/273/273	54	263	4	11	17%	6%	55	-0.7
✕Sergio Burruel 2012 · A	21	43	35→30	42→30	47	201/278/262	61	281	3	4	27%	8%	57	-1.8	219/272/282	63	305	3	6	27%	6%	58	-1.7	247/310/316	70	302	6	1	19%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→46	39→50	48→45	42	174/249/268	95	270	5	6	35%	8%	47	-2.5	202/266/320	118	277	11	6	30%	7%	66	-1.1	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Meza 2024 · A	21	43→42	39→40	44→50	50	203/296/287	84	284	7	7	29%	10%	70	-0.8	197/287/295	98	292	9	10	33%	10%	69	-0.9	186/278/281	95	274	9	12	33%	9%	61	-1.1
✕Je'Von Ward 2021 · A	21	43→37	37→45	47→50	42	199/261/272	74	301	4	8	33%	8%	52	-2.2	202/251/297	95	324	8	10	37%	6%	54	-2.0	195/284/320	125	290	14	8	35%	11%	73	-0.3
✕Jacob Gonzalez 2024 · A	22	44→45	38→45	46→50	51	208/290/285	76	270	6	6	24%	9%	67	-1.1	218/275/329	111	256	11	12	19%	6%	71	-0.8	220/279/347	127	253	14	13	19%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	40	36→40	45→50	46	190/261/259	69	270	4	9	29%	8%	50	-2.3	191/256/256	65	306	3	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	156/231/187	31	268	0	14	38%	8%	19	-1.5

Drew Davies

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps