Ismael Cabral — OGILVIE

Ismael Cabral P FCL Rays

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 194 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156148vR 140

ERA6.49

FIP6.49

K%10.5%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%-7.8%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3030

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	13	0	24	111	15	17	1	0%	1.8	9.2%	19.1%	-10.0%	1.3%	4.94	5.49	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	13	0	24	111	15	17	1	0%	1.8	9.2%	19.1%	-10.0%	1.3%	4.94	5.49	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	13	0	24	111	15	17	1	0%	1.8	13.5%	15.3%	-1.8%	0.9%	4.94	4.54	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	42	190	28	21	1	92%	3.5	10.0%	13.8%	-3.8%	0.8%	3.21	4.42	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	42	190	28	21	1	92%	3.5	10.0%	13.8%	-3.8%	0.8%	3.21	4.42	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	42	190	28	21	1	92%	3.5	14.7%	11.1%	3.7%	0.5%	3.21	3.58	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	8	47	217	37	27	3	67%	3.9	11.6%	15.6%	-4.0%	1.9%	4.79	5.13	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	8	47	217	37	27	3	67%	3.9	11.6%	15.6%	-4.0%	1.9%	4.79	5.13	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	8	47	217	37	27	3	67%	3.9	17.1%	12.4%	4.6%	1.4%	4.79	4.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	0	19	76	20	11	0	0%	1.6	17.9%	18.1%	-0.2%	0.0%	1.86	3.88	—
YTD	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	0	19	76	20	11	0	0%	1.6	17.9%	18.1%	-0.2%	0.0%	1.86	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	TB	12	0	19	76	20	11	0	0%	1.6	26.3%	14.5%	11.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	44	0	46	195	27	32	6	0%	1.1	13.6%	16.3%	-2.7%	2.8%	6.08	5.95	-0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	45	0	48	201	31	30	6	0%	1.1	15.5%	15.0%	0.5%	2.8%	5.75	5.62	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	22	0	23	97	13	16	3	0%	1.0	13.6%	16.3%	-2.7%	2.8%	6.08	5.95	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	31	0	33	139	22	21	4	0%	1.1	15.5%	15.0%	0.5%	2.8%	5.75	5.62	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	35	37	7	0%	1.1	14.8%	15.5%	-0.8%	2.8%	5.88	5.37	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	125	132	25	0%	1.1	14.8%	15.5%	-0.8%	2.8%	5.88	5.37	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		49	19	132	594	68	95	7	39%	2.7	11.4%	16.0%	-4.5%	1.2%	3.89	4.81	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	29	200	900	103	144	11	39%	2.7	11.4%	16.0%	-4.5%	1.2%	3.89	4.81	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ismael Cabral (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.49	10.5%	18.3%	2.9%	—	5.78	14.6%	-1.0%	94	-0.71	—	—	—
Johsson Arias R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	8.5%	17.1%	1.6%	.244	3.64	15.9%	4.4%	77	-1.79	3.46	117	85
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	82
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	80
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	80
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	80
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	79
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	79
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	78
Juan Soto R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	8.9%	24.0%	2.3%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.06	102	78
Diogenes Almengo R 2016 · 6.34 FIP	21	SW	6.34	8.2%	18.3%	2.9%	.235	4.69	21.0%	5.1%	70	-1.65	2.12	242	78
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	78
Frank Martinez R 2023 · 5.44 FIP	21	SW	5.44	10.4%	20.3%	1.2%	.360	5.35	17.9%	2.0%	114	-0.09	3.30	135	78
Alexis Liebano R 2023 · 6.15 FIP	20	SU	6.15	11.8%	24.2%	1.8%	.312	6.00	17.7%	3.8%	112	-0.15	4.80	142	77
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	77
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	77
Erling Moreno R 2019 · 6.02 FIP	22	SP-	6.02	7.8%	18.2%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	213	77
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	76
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	76
Taylor Hawkins R 2016 · 5.38 FIP	22	SW	5.38	7.7%	19.6%	0.8%	.239	5.98	7.4%	-12.1%	43	+0.60	5.38	112	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	13.3%	16.5%	1.10	6.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14