Jarrette Bonet

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#561ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	26	18	118	4.72	4.21	21.0%	11.5%	—	K 15.7% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	—	—	0	5.39	5.39	17.3%	13.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	7	7	43	5.17	5.05	19.3%	11.6%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	10	10	63	4.92	4.78	20.5%	10.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Kyle Davies (age 21) · Nolberto Henriquez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%17.3%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%4.0%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$35M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
Totals		$8M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	118	504	106	58	13	69%	4.6	15.7%	13.8%	1.9%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	118	504	106	58	13	69%	4.6	15.7%	13.8%	1.9%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	118	504	106	58	13	69%	4.6	21.0%	11.5%	9.5%	2.6%	4.72	4.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	13.4%	4.0%	3.1%	5.39	5.39	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	87	368	71	43	11	100%	6.7	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	3.0%	5.09	4.97	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	87	368	75	39	11	100%	6.7	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.0%	4.84	4.70	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	87	368	78	36	11	100%	6.7	21.2%	9.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.65	4.54	+0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	80	337	73	32	10	100%	6.7	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.53	4.45	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	80	337	73	32	10	100%	6.7	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.47	4.43	+0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	78	329	72	31	10	100%	6.5	21.8%	9.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.47	4.46	+0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	74	314	68	30	10	100%	6.8	21.6%	9.6%	12.1%	3.1%	4.52	4.55	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	69	292	62	29	9	100%	6.3	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.68	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	63	265	56	27	9	100%	6.3	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.76	4.86	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	56	239	49	25	9	100%	6.3	20.7%	10.5%	10.2%	3.6%	4.94	5.06	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	43	182	35	21	6	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	3.1%	5.17	5.05	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	63	266	54	28	8	100%	6.3	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.92	4.78	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	72	304	64	30	9	100%	6.5	21.2%	9.8%	11.4%	3.1%	4.73	4.62	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	71	300	65	28	9	100%	6.5	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.61	4.53	+0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	73	308	67	29	9	100%	6.6	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.51	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	72	304	66	29	9	100%	6.5	21.8%	9.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.55	4.54	+0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	70	296	64	28	10	100%	6.4	21.6%	9.6%	12.1%	3.2%	4.60	4.63	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	66	279	60	27	9	100%	6.6	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	3.4%	4.71	4.77	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	60	253	53	26	9	100%	6.7	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	3.6%	4.85	4.95	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	54	228	47	24	9	100%	6.8	20.7%	10.5%	10.2%	3.8%	5.04	5.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	643	2714	575	269	88	100%	6.6	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.2%	4.75	4.35	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	179	84	27	100%	6.6	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.2%	4.75	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		26	18	118	504	79	69	17	69%	4.6	15.7%	13.8%	1.9%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	30	200	852	134	117	28	69%	4.6	15.7%	13.8%	1.9%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 109 IPFIP 4.18 → 5.34 (+1.15)K% 21.2% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.23%	—	×0.740	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.68%	—	×1.180	13.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.18 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 9 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.32 (+0.94)K% 18.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.770	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarrette Bonet (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	17.3%	13.4%	3.1%	—	4.74	20.3%	9.7%	261	-0.65	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Kyle Davies R 2005 · 4.27 FIP	21	SP-	4.27	15.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.311	4.79	15.5%	5.6%	312	+0.52	3.58	921	87
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	87
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	86
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	86
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	86
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	85
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	85
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
Luis Vargas R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	16.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.295	4.21	23.5%	10.7%	171	-0.44	3.31	386	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
David Palladino R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	14.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	122	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	83
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	83
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	83
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	76	20.7%	10.3%	1.19	4.75
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Joe Boever ('85-'96, 4 WAR*)	3.8	84	20.9%*	10.0%*	1.14*	4.15*
Bob McClure ('75-'93, 7 WAR*)	5.8	83	20.5%*	9.9%*	1.04*	4.20*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*