Jarrette Bonet — OGILVIE

Jarrette Bonet P Wilson Warbirds

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.2 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%20.2%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$39M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$29M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	18	118	504	106	58	13	69%	4.6	15.6%	13.6%	2.0%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	26	18	118	504	106	58	13	69%	4.6	15.6%	13.6%	2.0%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIL	24	17	109	471	100	55	12	71%	4.6	21.2%	11.7%	9.6%	2.5%	4.86	4.18	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	MIL	2	1	9	33	6	3	1	50%	4.5	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	3.0%	3.00	4.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	122	514	107	55	15	100%	6.4	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.78	4.71	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	128	540	118	53	16	100%	6.7	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	2.9%	4.58	4.46	+0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	133	560	127	51	16	100%	6.6	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.30	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	136	574	133	50	16	100%	6.5	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	2.8%	4.28	4.20	+1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	138	581	137	50	16	100%	6.6	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	2.8%	4.19	4.13	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	138	581	138	50	16	100%	6.6	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	2.8%	4.14	4.11	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	136	572	136	50	16	100%	6.5	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.15	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	131	555	131	49	16	100%	6.6	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.20	4.23	+1.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	126	530	124	48	17	100%	6.6	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	3.1%	4.30	4.37	+0.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	118	498	114	46	17	100%	6.6	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.3%	4.45	4.54	+0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	110	464	105	45	16	100%	6.5	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.74	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	102	430	95	43	16	100%	6.8	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	3.8%	4.83	4.97	-0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	93	394	85	42	16	100%	6.7	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	4.1%	5.06	5.22	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	60	253	53	27	8	100%	6.7	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.86	4.79	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	93	393	86	38	12	100%	6.6	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.54	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	112	473	107	43	14	100%	6.6	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.38	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	121	511	118	45	15	100%	6.7	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.28	+1.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	126	532	125	46	16	100%	6.6	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.0%	4.27	4.21	+1.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	128	540	128	46	16	100%	6.7	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	3.0%	4.22	4.19	+1.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	129	545	129	47	16	100%	6.5	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	3.0%	4.23	4.23	+1.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	125	528	124	46	16	100%	6.6	23.6%	8.8%	14.8%	3.1%	4.28	4.31	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	119	502	117	45	16	100%	6.6	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	3.3%	4.39	4.46	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	112	473	109	44	16	100%	6.6	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.5%	4.54	4.63	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	104	439	99	43	16	100%	6.5	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.7%	4.73	4.84	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	97	410	91	41	16	100%	6.5	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	4.0%	4.93	5.07	-0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	89	376	81	40	16	100%	6.4	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	4.3%	5.17	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		215	215	1415	5976	1368	553	195	100%	6.6	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.3%	4.50	4.13	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	193	78	28	100%	6.6	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.3%	4.50	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		26	18	118	504	79	68	17	69%	4.6	15.6%	13.6%	2.0%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	30	200	852	133	116	28	69%	4.6	15.6%	13.6%	2.0%	3.3%	4.72	5.34	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarrette Bonet (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	20.2%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.48	21.8%	11.9%	382	-0.47	—	—	—
Robert Colina R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.73	3.25	266	84
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	82
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	81
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	81
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	80
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Lorenzo Encarnacion R 2022 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP-	4.36	18.9%	10.2%	2.8%	.360	5.38	15.3%	4.3%	125	+1.02	3.54	201	79
Garrison Bryant R 2018 · 5.55 FIP	19	SP-	5.55	17.0%	11.0%	4.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	5.55	191	79
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	79
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	78
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	78
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	78
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	78
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	78
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	77
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.1	116	22.8%	9.3%	1.20	4.44
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17