Alex Sosa

C Stockton Ports

Age 22 L/R A HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#796ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	AOAK	77	.290/.413/.500	3	1	109	—	.242/.333/.379
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBOAK	187	.226/.296/.362	5	3	85	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBOAK	38	.234/.304/.377	1	1	88	0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBOAK	84	.236/.306/.382	2	1	90	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%88

BB%85

wOBA84

ISO84

wRC+78

Chase%76

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 6.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsMatthew Sweeney (age 22) · Colson Montgomery (age 22) · Travis Scott (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj PA

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .293 / .359

PA54

HR1

K%26

BB%8

ISO136

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Stockton Ports	—	77	62	18	4	0	3	13	12	0	1	0	290	413	500	913	210	306	16	17	395	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	77	66	16	3	0	2	9	16	0	1	0	242	333	379	712	136	273	21	12	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	77	66	16	3	0	2	9	16	0	1	0	242	333	379	712	136	280	21	12	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	—	77	62	18	4	0	3	13	12	0	1	0	290	413	500	913	210	306	16	17	395	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	77	68	16	3	0	2	9	16	0	1	0	235	333	368	701	132	273	21	12	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	77	68	16	3	0	2	9	16	0	1	0	235	333	368	701	132	273	21	12	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	OAK	0%	187	168	38	7	1	5	16	49	1	3	1	226	296	362	658	136	285	26	9	294	85	-3	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	OAK	34%	110	99	23	4	1	3	9	28	1	1	0	228	298	368	666	140	286	25	8	298	88	-2	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	OAK	46%	183	165	38	7	1	5	15	47	1	2	1	230	300	372	673	142	288	26	8	301	90	-2	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	248	223	51	9	1	7	21	63	2	3	1	231	302	376	677	144	288	25	8	302	91	-3	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	302	271	63	12	1	8	26	76	2	4	1	232	303	378	680	146	288	25	9	304	92	-3	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	329	296	69	13	2	9	28	83	2	4	1	231	302	377	679	145	287	25	9	303	91	-3	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	342	308	71	13	2	9	29	87	2	4	1	230	300	372	672	142	286	25	8	300	89	-4	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	341	307	70	13	1	9	29	88	2	4	2	227	297	365	663	138	285	26	9	297	87	-5	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	334	301	66	12	1	8	28	87	2	3	2	224	294	357	651	134	283	26	8	292	84	-6	-0	-3	+6	+7	0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	305	275	60	11	1	7	25	80	2	2	4	220	289	348	636	128	280	26	8	286	80	-7	-1	-4	+5	+7	-0.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	OAK	56%	271	246	52	9	1	6	22	73	1	2	13	214	283	335	618	121	275	27	8	278	74	-8	-5	-4	+5	+6	-0.7
2028	23	MLB CTX	OAK	34%	38	35	8	2	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	234	304	377	681	143	296	26	8	304	88	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	OAK	46%	84	76	18	4	0	2	7	21	1	1	0	236	306	382	688	146	297	25	8	307	90	-1	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	128	115	27	5	1	3	11	32	1	2	0	237	307	385	693	148	298	25	9	309	91	-1	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	164	148	35	7	1	4	14	41	1	2	1	238	308	387	696	149	297	25	9	310	92	-2	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	178	160	39	8	1	5	15	45	1	2	1	238	308	386	694	149	297	25	8	309	91	-2	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	186	167	40	8	1	5	16	47	1	2	1	236	306	381	687	146	296	25	9	307	89	-2	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	181	163	39	8	1	5	15	46	1	2	1	233	303	375	678	142	294	25	8	303	87	-3	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	175	157	36	7	1	4	15	46	1	2	1	230	299	367	666	137	292	26	9	298	84	-3	+0	-2	+3	+4	0.2
2036	31	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	159	144	33	6	1	4	13	42	1	1	2	225	294	357	651	131	289	26	8	292	80	-4	-1	-2	+3	+3	-0.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	OAK	56%	152	138	30	6	1	3	12	41	1	1	7	220	288	344	632	124	284	27	8	284	74	-5	-3	-3	+3	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1445	1303	305	61	8	36	121	371	9	16	14	234	304	376	680	142	298	26	8	302	87	-24	-2	-11	+26	+31	2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	137	27	4	16	54	167	4	7	6	234	303	375	678	142	297	26	8	302	87	-11	-1	-5	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2896	2606	589	108	12	74	246	742	17	31	26	226	297	362	659	136	285	26	8	297	87	-46	-4	-21	+50	+61	4.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	133	24	3	17	55	167	4	7	6	227	298	366	664	138	286	26	8	297	87	-11	-1	-5	+12	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AStockton Ports · 77 PAwOBA .395 → .330 (−66)K% 15.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.58%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	21.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.88%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	11.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.005	—	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.005	—	6.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.005	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	4.80%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .395 → .330; ISO .210 → .176; BABIP .306 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	3.9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
/162	664	21	1	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#2Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Scott Servais'91-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,778 PA	4.2	2,778	63	3	235*	296*	373*	+49	+0	6.5	6.9
/162	664	15	1	+11.7	+0.1	1.6	pk7: 7
#4Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	2.4	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	2	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
#5Chris Widger'95-'06 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,998 PA	3.0	1,998	55	10	227*	283*	381*	+33	-0	3.6	4.1
/162	664	18	3	+11.1	-0.2	1.2	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.3	1,499	39	17	227	294	366	+27	-12	4.1	3.9
/162	664	17	7	+11.9	-5.3	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Sosa (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	224/293/359	135	285	1	1	26%	8%	85	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matthew Sweeney 2010 · A	22	47→42	49→55	46→45	45	237/294/391	153	295	16	5	25%	7%	92	+0.7	191/254/302	111	277	10	4	33%	7%	57	-1.8	162/226/261	99	236	9	1	34%	7%	35	-1.4
✕Colson Montgomery 2024 · AA	22	49→48	45→55	41→45	50	235/328/366	131	311	12	3	26%	10%	100	+1.3	202/284/363	161	279	20	5	33%	8%	83	+0.1	189/270/365	176	256	24	4	35%	8%	78	-0.3
✕Travis Scott 2008 · A	23	44	50→55	43→40	44	227/287/376	149	291	18	3	28%	7%	86	+0.3	223/277/378	155	288	18	5	28%	7%	83	+0.1	216/269/375	159	274	18	3	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	45→47	48→50	45→50	42	226/295/372	146	296	15	5	28%	6%	89	+0.5	222/280/363	141	284	16	8	27%	6%	81	-0.1	215/271/359	144	269	17	9	26%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Brooks Lee 2023 · A	22	50→51	45→50	41→45	51	245/311/369	125	289	13	6	20%	8%	93	+0.8	244/296/379	135	284	13	6	19%	7%	90	+0.6	243/290/392	149	264	19	6	16%	6%	91	+0.6
●Graham Pauley 2023 · A	22	45→52	45→55	48→50	52	224/302/352	128	270	12	12	21%	9%	86	+0.3	233/300/393	160	281	18	11	23%	8%	95	+1.0	226/297/390	163	268	19	11	23%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Jimmy Crooks 2024 · A	23	47	44→50	46→40	43	227/290/349	123	306	11	4	29%	7%	81	-0.1	240/306/372	132	335	14	4	30%	7%	92	+0.7	240/311/381	141	337	17	2	32%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Johnny Monell 2008 · A	22	43	43→50	44→45	47	212/287/326	114	278	11	8	27%	8%	75	-0.5	230/291/359	129	287	12	8	23%	7%	84	+0.1	225/286/348	123	283	13	8	24%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Tyler Ogle 2013 · A	22	46→43	49→50	45→30	44	233/294/379	146	292	17	5	26%	7%	90	+0.6	219/305/352	133	265	15	3	22%	10%	88	+0.4	209/298/348	138	250	17	2	23%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Mike Boeve 2024 · A	22	50→53	48→40	49→45	45	245/306/384	139	326	15	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	258/322/359	101	337	8	8	24%	8%	95	+0.9	257/324/350	93	335	8	9	24%	8%	91	+0.4
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	40→42	47→45	50→45	49	202/313/334	132	268	16	7	29%	10%	88	+0.5	192/300/291	99	262	9	5	28%	10%	74	-0.5	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
●Taylor Green 2009 · A	22	51→56	46→50	40→30	50	253/316/384	131	292	14	3	18%	8%	99	+1.2	247/305/380	133	282	13	2	17%	7%	93	+0.8	251/309/394	143	284	14	0	17%	7%	97	+0.8
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	43	46→50	48→40	47	217/290/349	133	270	14	4	25%	8%	82	-0.0	222/315/352	130	303	13	6	29%	9%	92	+0.7	216/325/362	146	296	16	3	30%	10%	98	+0.3
✕Dom Nuñez 2017 · A	22	43→46	45→50	45	47	219/277/333	115	267	14	7	24%	7%	72	-0.7	199/275/317	118	257	14	8	27%	9%	69	-0.9	181/265/328	147	236	18	5	31%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Travis Denker 2008 · A	22	47→51	47→50	44→45	52	237/309/373	136	276	15	5	20%	9%	94	+0.9	229/296/349	120	286	10	5	22%	8%	83	+0.1	228/292/363	135	273	14	6	21%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Matt Thaiss 2017 · A	22	49→51	43→55	45	47	236/286/354	118	273	8	5	17%	6%	80	-0.1	234/298/361	127	292	12	6	23%	8%	86	+0.3	229/309/386	157	283	18	4	25%	10%	95	+0.7
✕Stephen Parker 2011 · A	23	49→53	47→45	44→40	48	244/308/388	144	302	14	3	23%	8%	97	+1.1	229/288/338	109	305	10	4	27%	7%	78	-0.3	214/275/308	93	292	9	3	28%	7%	63	-1.1
✕Zack Collins 2017 · A	22	46→42	47→50	47→40	49	217/309/351	135	339	14	6	37%	12%	89	+0.5	194/292/340	146	302	16	3	37%	12%	81	-0.1	199/306/353	154	293	17	2	34%	13%	89	+0.4
✕Blake DeWitt 2008 · AA	22	49→53	46→50	40	43	243/281/377	134	281	14	4	20%	5%	84	+0.1	245/302/374	129	281	11	4	16%	7%	91	+0.6	245/312/369	123	280	10	3	16%	8%	93	+0.7
✕Nelson Quiroz 2024 · A	22	47	44→40	49→40	49	232/294/354	122	277	11	6	20%	8%	84	+0.1	243/290/320	77	279	4	3	14%	6%	74	-0.6	263/309/325	62	294	2	0	11%	6%	77	-0.1

Alex Sosa

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps