Jose Varela
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 183 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%22.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 5 | 47 | 190 | 71 | 24 | 2 | 38% | 3.6 | 25.4% | 15.8% | 9.6% | 0.9% | 2.49 | 3.44 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 5 | 47 | 190 | 71 | 24 | 2 | 38% | 3.6 | 37.4% | 12.6% | 24.7% | 1.1% | 2.49 | 2.16 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 6 | 4 | 18 | 75 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 67% | 2.9 | 16.3% | 20.0% | -3.7% | 3.1% | 3.06 | 5.93 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 6 | 4 | 18 | 75 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 67% | 2.9 | 24.0% | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.06 | 4.57 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 38 | 154 | 39 | 21 | 1 | 17% | 3.1 | 17.7% | 16.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.11 | 4.21 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 38 | 154 | 39 | 21 | 1 | 17% | 3.1 | 25.3% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 0.6% | 3.11 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 18 | 0 | 29 | 136 | 32 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.4% | 21.7% | -4.3% | 2.9% | 8.16 | 5.95 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 0 | 19 | 82 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 48 | 218 | 51 | 34 | 5 | — | — | 23.2% | 15.4% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 6.67 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 80 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 11 | 131 | 555 | 111 | 100 | 9 | 22% | 2.7 | 20.1% | 18.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.98 | 4.61 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 17 | 200 | 847 | 170 | 153 | 14 | 22% | 2.7 | 20.1% | 18.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.98 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Varela (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.24 | 23.6% | 14.0% | 20 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 92 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 85 |
| Luis Romero R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 85 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 84 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 83 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 82 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 82 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 6.2% | 139 | +0.78 | 2.91 | 233 | 82 |
| Zac Ryan R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .233 | 3.92 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 184 | 82 |
| Jake Elliott R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.81 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 354 | 82 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 82 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 82 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 81 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 81 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 81 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.66 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .250 | 4.18 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 119 | +0.52 | 3.66 | 166 | 81 |
| Justin Meis R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.80 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.31 | 3.80 | 385 | 81 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 81 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 81 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2029 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 81 |