Jose Varela — OGILVIE

Jose Varela P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 183 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%20.8%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	5	47	190	71	24	2	38%	3.6	25.4%	15.8%	9.6%	1.1%	2.49	3.56	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	5	47	190	71	24	2	38%	3.6	25.4%	15.8%	9.6%	1.1%	2.49	3.56	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	5	47	190	71	24	2	38%	3.6	37.4%	12.6%	24.7%	1.1%	2.49	2.16	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	6	4	18	75	18	12	2	67%	2.9	16.3%	20.0%	-3.7%	3.4%	3.06	6.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	6	4	18	75	18	12	2	67%	2.9	16.3%	20.0%	-3.7%	3.4%	3.06	6.10	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	6	4	18	75	18	12	2	67%	2.9	24.0%	16.0%	8.0%	2.7%	3.06	4.57	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	38	154	39	21	1	17%	3.1	17.7%	16.8%	0.9%	0.9%	3.11	4.22	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	38	154	39	21	1	17%	3.1	17.7%	16.8%	0.9%	0.9%	3.11	4.22	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	2	38	154	39	21	1	17%	3.1	25.3%	13.6%	11.7%	0.6%	3.11	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	0	48	226	48	40	4	0%	1.8	15.0%	21.3%	-6.3%	2.4%	6.94	5.86	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	0	48	226	48	40	4	0%	1.8	15.0%	21.3%	-6.3%	2.4%	6.94	5.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	HOU	1	0	4	12	5	1	0	0%	4.0	41.7%	8.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.64	—
2026	21	A RAW	HOU	19	0	32	154	33	27	3	0%	1.7	21.4%	17.5%	3.9%	1.9%	8.53	4.58	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	HOU	6	0	12	60	10	12	1	0%	2.1	16.7%	20.0%	-3.3%	1.7%	5.11	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	47	0	49	209	46	28	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.5%	8.4%	2.8%	5.01	4.89	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	217	49	26	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.61	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	50	0	53	222	52	25	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.55	4.43	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	51	0	53	225	53	23	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.31	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	51	0	53	225	54	23	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.34	4.29	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	23	0	24	101	22	14	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.5%	8.4%	2.8%	5.01	4.89	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	35	0	37	156	36	19	4	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.0%	10.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.61	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	42	0	44	186	43	21	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.55	4.43	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	45	0	47	198	47	21	5	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.31	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	47	0	49	207	49	22	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.34	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	0	201	849	198	95	24	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.8%	4.56	4.08	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	95	24	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.8%	4.56	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		57	11	150	645	122	119	11	19%	2.6	18.9%	18.5%	0.4%	1.8%	4.13	4.82	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	15	200	858	162	158	15	19%	2.6	18.9%	18.5%	0.4%	1.8%	4.13	4.82	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Varela (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	20.8%	15.8%	2.9%	—	4.64	22.7%	10.5%	153	-0.66	—	—	—
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	84
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	84
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	83
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	82
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	82
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	81
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	81
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	81
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	23.0%	11.8%	1.08	4.65
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68