Ryder Helfrick — OGILVIE

Ryder HelfrickC Visalia Rawhide

Age 22 R/R A HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 110 proj PA

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .270 / .356

PA110

HR3

K%30

BB%8

ISO152

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER57

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED34

scouting grade only

DEFENSE60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	110	94	23	7	2	5	13	29	0	0	0	245	336	521	858	277	286	26	12	362	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	110	98	19	5	2	4	9	39	0	0	0	194	262	408	670	214	239	35	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	110	98	19	5	2	4	9	39	0	0	0	194	262	408	670	214	259	35	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	110	94	23	7	2	5	13	29	0	0	0	245	336	521	858	277	286	26	12	362	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	110	100	19	5	2	4	9	39	0	0	0	190	262	400	662	210	239	35	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	110	100	19	5	2	4	9	39	0	0	0	190	262	400	662	210	239	35	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	220	200	41	8	2	6	17	67	1	2	1	208	273	360	632	152	276	30	8	281	76	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	196	178	38	8	2	5	15	59	1	2	1	211	276	366	643	155	278	30	8	286	79	-5	+0	+1	+4	+4	0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	46%	304	276	60	12	3	9	23	90	2	3	1	214	280	372	652	158	280	30	8	289	82	-7	+0	+1	+5	+7	0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	370	336	72	14	3	11	29	108	2	4	1	216	282	376	658	160	280	29	8	292	84	-7	+0	+2	+7	+8	1.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	412	374	81	16	4	12	32	119	3	4	1	218	284	379	663	161	281	29	8	294	85	-7	+0	+3	+7	+9	1.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	431	391	86	17	4	13	34	123	3	4	2	218	285	378	663	160	281	29	8	294	85	-8	+0	+3	+8	+9	1.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	440	400	87	17	4	13	34	127	3	4	2	216	283	373	656	157	280	29	8	291	83	-9	+0	+2	+8	+10	1.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	438	398	85	17	4	12	34	127	3	3	2	214	280	367	647	153	278	29	8	288	81	-10	-0	+1	+8	+9	0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	433	394	82	16	3	12	33	127	3	3	3	211	277	359	636	148	276	29	8	283	78	-11	-1	+1	+8	+9	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	409	373	77	15	3	11	31	122	2	2	12	206	272	349	621	143	273	30	8	277	74	-13	-4	-0	+7	+9	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	67	62	14	3	1	2	5	20	0	1	0	218	283	379	661	161	290	30	7	293	79	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	46%	140	127	29	6	2	4	11	41	1	1	0	221	286	384	670	163	292	29	8	297	82	-3	+0	+1	+3	+3	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	191	173	38	8	2	5	15	56	1	2	1	223	289	388	676	165	293	29	8	299	84	-4	+0	+1	+3	+4	0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	223	202	46	10	3	6	17	64	2	2	1	224	291	390	681	166	293	29	8	301	85	-4	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	234	212	47	10	3	6	18	67	2	2	1	225	291	389	680	164	293	29	8	301	85	-4	+0	+2	+4	+5	0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	239	216	48	10	3	6	19	69	2	2	1	223	289	384	673	162	291	29	8	298	83	-5	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	233	212	46	10	2	6	18	68	1	2	1	220	286	378	664	158	290	29	8	295	81	-5	+0	+1	+4	+5	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	227	206	45	10	2	6	18	67	1	2	2	217	282	370	652	153	287	30	8	290	78	-6	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	213	194	41	9	2	5	16	63	1	1	6	213	277	360	637	147	284	30	8	284	74	-7	-2	-0	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1767	1604	354	76	20	46	137	515	11	15	13	221	287	379	666	158	293	29	8	295	81	-39	-2	+7	+32	+38	3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	130	28	7	17	50	189	4	6	5	220	286	378	664	158	292	29	8	295	81	-14	-1	+3	+12	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3653	3318	708	141	33	105	282	1074	23	30	25	213	280	371	650	157	279	29	8	288	81	-79	-4	+14	+63	+77	7.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	126	25	6	19	50	191	4	5	4	214	280	373	652	159	279	29	8	288	81	-15	-1	+3	+12	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.8	1,877	53	16	215	278	370	+34	+24	4.0	3.9
/162	664	19	6	+11.9	+8.5	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryder Helfrick (OGILVIE)	22	20→36	45→57	30→34	50	206/270/356	151	276	3	1	30%	8%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→38	47→55	37→40	45	204/267/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	206/284/354	148	268	16	3	28%	9%	81	-0.1	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	43	203/264/334	131	264	15	4	29%	7%	69	-0.9	213/268/317	104	301	10	5	31%	6%	65	-1.2	197/247/259	63	294	6	0	34%	6%	40	-0.9
✕Eric Haase 2015 · A	22	38→42	48→65	42→40	37	197/249/342	145	289	16	3	37%	6%	64	-1.3	193/251/352	159	293	18	4	39%	6%	68	-1.0	220/279/438	218	287	32	2	35%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→40	47→50	43→30	48	215/294/352	137	286	15	4	29%	9%	84	+0.1	204/288/337	133	276	16	3	30%	10%	78	-0.3	186/275/307	121	251	15	0	30%	10%	65	-0.7
✕Alex Jackson 2018 · AA	22	40→38	49→60	42→30	34	204/259/348	144	300	17	3	37%	5%	70	-0.8	193/257/364	171	286	22	3	40%	5%	74	-0.6	173/252/371	198	240	29	2	40%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Deivy Grullón 2018 · AA	22	45	44→55	38→30	37	222/258/334	113	301	12	2	30%	4%	65	-1.2	239/283/401	162	320	21	3	31%	6%	91	+0.6	225/274/398	173	303	25	1	34%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Jakson Reetz 2019 · A	23	42→33	40→55	39→45	43	201/278/290	89	284	8	5	30%	7%	63	-1.3	198/277/316	118	286	12	5	33%	7%	70	-0.9	198/277/386	187	246	23	4	29%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2018 · A	22	37→42	46→55	44→50	48	186/273/317	131	265	13	8	33%	10%	68	-1.0	200/284/350	150	294	15	9	35%	9%	80	-0.2	196/269/361	165	267	20	12	33%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	45→47	48→50	45→50	42	226/295/372	146	296	15	5	28%	6%	89	+0.5	222/280/363	141	284	16	8	27%	6%	81	-0.1	215/271/359	144	269	17	9	26%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Clint Coulter 2015 · A	22	43	48→50	42→40	46	218/299/364	146	282	16	5	28%	8%	88	+0.5	210/277/335	125	268	12	4	26%	6%	74	-0.6	200/266/338	137	245	16	4	25%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Bryan Ramos 2024 · AA	22	42	50	44→50	43	221/284/370	149	272	19	5	27%	7%	84	+0.2	204/271/322	118	262	13	10	27%	7%	69	-0.9	190/263/293	103	246	11	12	27%	7%	56	-1.3
✕Victor Bericoto 2024 · AA	22	44→49	50	41→40	42	226/280/376	150	296	19	3	30%	7%	84	+0.1	235/281/359	124	312	14	4	28%	6%	80	-0.2	240/285/353	113	317	13	3	27%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Freuddy Batista 2022 · A	22	38	50	46→40	41	202/264/358	156	275	19	7	33%	7%	74	-0.5	203/263/329	126	302	12	6	35%	6%	67	-1.1	206/259/338	132	266	17	4	29%	4%	64	-0.6
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→25	53→55	39→45	40	204/285/385	180	305	20	5	38%	8%	88	+0.5	177/277/336	159	278	19	7	40%	10%	75	-0.5	147/260/300	153	223	20	7	41%	11%	58	-0.9
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A	23	43→44	43→50	42→40	42	211/278/315	104	301	11	4	32%	7%	69	-0.9	213/278/334	121	292	14	4	30%	8%	74	-0.6	224/283/361	136	280	17	2	26%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Johan Mieses 2017 · A	22	36→33	53→55	44→50	36	199/248/370	171	271	21	8	35%	5%	71	-0.8	186/238/339	153	256	20	4	35%	5%	60	-1.6	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Tyler Ogle 2013 · A	22	46→43	49→50	45→30	44	233/294/379	146	292	17	5	26%	7%	90	+0.6	219/305/352	133	265	15	3	22%	10%	88	+0.4	209/298/348	138	250	17	2	23%	10%	81	-0.0
●Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	42→38	50→65	42→45	39	211/276/367	156	300	17	5	34%	6%	81	-0.1	212/267/380	168	296	20	5	34%	6%	80	-0.1	247/319/462	214	314	30	2	30%	9%	119	+1.2
✕Chris Williams 2019 · A	22	37→31	52→55	46→40	47	204/277/364	160	252	22	4	29%	9%	80	-0.1	180/269/315	135	277	15	4	37%	10%	67	-1.1	175/259/344	169	246	24	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	38→42	48→55	46→50	35	200/242/343	143	282	16	6	35%	5%	61	-1.5	216/272/376	160	285	20	8	31%	6%	81	-0.1	211/274/367	156	276	20	7	30%	7%	79	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps