Mason Nichols — OGILVIE

Mason Nichols P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%22.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	7	0	9	33	9	2	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.56	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	7	0	9	33	9	2	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.56	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	7	0	9	33	9	2	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	42	0	59	261	73	31	9	0%	1.4	21.0%	13.9%	7.1%	4.4%	5.37	5.49	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	42	0	59	261	73	31	9	0%	1.4	21.0%	13.9%	7.1%	4.4%	5.37	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TB	27	0	39	165	51	20	3	0%	1.5	30.9%	12.1%	18.8%	1.8%	3.66	3.02	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TB	15	0	19	96	22	11	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	11.5%	11.5%	6.2%	8.84	6.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	56	0	59	249	58	26	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.51	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	57	0	60	252	59	25	8	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.46	4.40	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	57	0	60	252	60	25	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.37	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	56	0	59	248	59	25	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	24	0	25	106	24	11	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.51	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	37	0	39	165	39	16	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.46	4.40	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	45	0	47	198	47	20	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.37	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	48	0	50	211	50	21	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	0	162	684	161	68	21	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.03	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	84	26	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		49	0	68	294	64	38	11	0%	1.4	21.7%	13.0%	8.6%	3.9%	4.63	5.05	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	0	200	865	187	113	34	0%	1.4	21.7%	13.0%	8.6%	3.9%	4.63	5.05	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Nichols (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.5%	11.4%	3.1%	—	4.43	23.5%	13.4%	178	-0.27	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	93
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	92
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	91
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	90
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	90
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	90
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	90
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	89
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	89
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	89
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	89
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	89
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	89
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	88
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	23.4%	10.3%	1.17	4.49
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84