Ilmerson Colon prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ilmerson Colon P DSL LAD Mega

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 167 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%23.2%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	8	0	9	40	13	7	2	0%	1.1	32.5%	17.5%	15.0%	5.0%	7.00	5.32	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	8	0	9	40	13	7	2	0%	1.1	32.5%	17.5%	15.0%	5.0%	7.00	5.43	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	24	113	34	23	0	0%	1.5	20.5%	25.4%	-5.0%	0.0%	4.07	4.59	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	24	113	34	23	0	0%	1.5	20.5%	25.4%	-5.0%	0.0%	4.07	4.59	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	24	113	34	23	0	0%	1.5	30.1%	20.4%	9.7%	0.0%	4.07	3.14	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	7	0	7	40	14	10	0	0%	1.0	35.0%	25.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.31	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	7	0	7	40	14	10	0	0%	1.0	35.0%	25.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.31	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	7	0	7	40	14	10	0	0%	1.0	35.0%	25.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	13.8%	9.4%	3.0%	4.91	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAD	19	0	20	84	20	10	2	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.58	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAD	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.20	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	20	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		31	0	40	193	50	46	2	0%	1.3	26.0%	23.7%	2.3%	1.0%	5.85	4.48	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	0	200	965	251	229	10	0%	1.3	26.0%	23.7%	2.3%	1.0%	5.85	4.48	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ilmerson Colon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	23.2%	13.8%	3.0%	—	4.58	24.1%	12.0%	20	-0.33	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	86
Destin Dotson L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	21	SU	3.90	22.3%	12.2%	2.1%	.288	5.84	23.0%	3.1%	48	+1.94	2.90	113	85
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	84
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	84
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	84
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.09	225	84
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	83
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	83
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	83
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	82
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	81
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	80
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.24	22.9%	8.7%	176	+0.05	3.24	203	80
Yokelvin Reyes L 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SU	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	1.7%	.293	4.48	16.0%	4.1%	166	+0.54	3.50	221	80
Wesley Wright L 2008 · 4.45 FIP	23	SU	4.45	22.8%	12.0%	3.2%	.239	4.90	21.6%	11.6%	78	+0.45	3.03	375	80
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	79
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	78
James Ziemba L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	22	SU	3.73	18.3%	12.5%	1.1%	.309	5.16	11.7%	-0.7%	78	+1.43	3.73	110	78
Liu Fuenmayor L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	22.2%	10.5%	3.8%	.321	3.07	22.5%	15.5%	21	-1.55	3.07	130	77
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	77