Jesus Mendez — OGILVIE

Jesus Mendez P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.1%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	8	6	9	39	9	4	0	75%	1.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	0.0%	5.00	2.45	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	8	6	9	39	9	4	0	75%	1.1	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	0.0%	5.00	2.43	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	16	0	15	73	17	11	1	0%	1.0	15.8%	18.8%	-3.0%	0.9%	4.11	4.63	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	16	0	15	73	17	11	1	0%	1.0	15.8%	18.8%	-3.0%	0.9%	4.11	4.63	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	16	0	15	73	17	11	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	15.1%	8.2%	1.4%	4.11	3.88	—
2024	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	41	0	58	261	55	25	2	0%	1.4	15.6%	11.3%	4.3%	1.2%	5.93	3.88	—
2024	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	41	0	58	261	55	25	2	0%	1.4	15.6%	11.3%	4.3%	1.2%	5.93	3.88	—
2024	20	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	41	0	58	261	55	25	2	0%	1.4	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	0.8%	5.93	2.94	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	37	168	37	23	3	0%	1.2	15.9%	16.0%	-0.2%	3.3%	5.30	5.58	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	37	168	37	23	3	0%	1.2	15.9%	16.0%	-0.2%	3.3%	5.30	5.58	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	37	168	37	23	3	0%	1.2	22.0%	13.7%	8.3%	1.8%	5.30	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	32	0	38	178	49	16	3	0%	1.2	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.9%	5.92	3.94	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	32	0	38	178	49	16	3	0%	1.2	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.9%	5.92	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	CWS	7	0	8	42	12	2	1	0%	1.1	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	2.4%	11.74	2.60	—
2026	22	A RAW	CWS	14	0	18	75	20	8	2	0%	1.3	26.7%	10.7%	16.0%	2.7%	1.50	3.66	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CWS	11	0	12	61	17	6	0	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.8%	18.0%	0.0%	8.76	1.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	51	0	54	227	45	27	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	2.9%	4.97	4.87	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	52	0	55	233	48	25	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.76	4.65	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	53	0	56	236	50	24	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.53	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	53	0	56	236	51	24	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	22	13	3	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	2.9%	4.97	4.87	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	36	0	38	160	33	17	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.76	4.65	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	43	0	45	190	40	19	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.2%	11.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.53	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	47	0	49	207	45	21	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	0	159	671	141	71	19	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	89	24	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		128	6	157	719	124	96	13	5%	1.2	17.3%	13.3%	4.0%	1.8%	5.55	4.29	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	8	200	914	158	121	16	5%	1.2	17.3%	13.3%	4.0%	1.8%	5.55	4.29	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.1%	13.3%	2.9%	—	4.68	20.6%	9.7%	165	-0.54	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	91
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	91
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	91
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	90
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	280	90
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	89
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	89
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	89
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	474	89
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	89
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	88
Jason García R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	22	SU	4.57	16.8%	12.5%	2.4%	.241	4.37	13.2%	1.2%	218	-0.20	4.16	356	88
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	88
Brooks Crawford R 2019 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	14.9%	13.7%	2.2%	.262	3.56	22.1%	14.5%	103	-1.22	2.50	296	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	87
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	86
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	49	20.6%	10.9%	1.10	4.76
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93