Julio Valdez

P ACL Cubs

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 212 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Cubs Blue	20	0	31	4.02	2.91	19.6%	11.6%	—	K 13.3% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.81
2026	21	MIX2 levels	19	5	49	7.03	5.40	15.5%	13.3%	—	K 10.7% · BB 16.3% · FIP 6.57
2027PROJ	22	MLBCHC	25	0	26	5.65	5.65	16.1%	15.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCHC	21	0	22	5.26	5.13	18.3%	13.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCHC	30	0	32	4.98	4.84	19.7%	11.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsFabian Anguamea (age 22) · Junior Rincon (age 23) · Yunior Montero (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%16.1%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%1.1%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	20	0	31	138	27	16	0	0%	1.6	13.3%	14.5%	-1.2%	0.0%	4.02	3.81	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	20	0	31	138	27	16	0	0%	1.6	13.3%	14.5%	-1.2%	0.0%	4.02	3.81	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	20	0	31	138	27	16	0	0%	1.6	19.6%	11.6%	8.0%	0.0%	4.02	2.91	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	49	233	36	31	7	26%	2.6	10.7%	16.3%	-5.6%	4.2%	7.03	6.57	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	49	233	36	31	7	26%	2.6	10.7%	16.3%	-5.6%	4.2%	7.03	6.57	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	5	49	233	36	31	7	26%	2.6	15.5%	13.3%	2.1%	3.0%	7.03	5.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	25	0	26	110	18	16	3	0%	1.0	16.1%	15.0%	1.1%	3.0%	5.65	5.65	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	43	0	45	192	35	25	6	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.0%	5.3%	2.9%	5.32	5.19	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	44	0	46	196	39	23	6	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	2.9%	5.04	4.90	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	21	0	22	93	17	12	3	0%	1.0	18.3%	13.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.26	5.13	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	32	135	27	16	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.98	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	231	44	28	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.3%	6.8%	2.8%	5.09	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	102	22	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.3%	6.8%	2.8%	5.09	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		39	5	80	371	43	58	10	13%	2.1	11.7%	15.6%	-3.9%	2.6%	5.85	5.54	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	12	200	928	108	145	24	13%	2.1	11.7%	15.6%	-3.9%	2.6%	5.85	5.54	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	16.1%	15.0%	3.0%	—	5.04	19.0%	6.6%	92	-0.61	—	—	—
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	88
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	88
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	88
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	87
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	85
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	85
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	84
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	84
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	82
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	82
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	82
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	82
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.17	528	82
Junior Montero R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	18.5%	15.8%	1.8%	.319	5.31	20.2%	-3.7%	32	+0.77	4.54	100	82
Miguel Guerrero R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	22	SU	5.35	17.0%	13.9%	3.5%	.324	4.56	18.1%	7.8%	57	-0.79	4.56	171	82
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	82
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	18.4%	13.0%	1.13	5.28
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57