Jesus Lopez — OGILVIE

Jesus LopezC Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .253 / .284

PA120

HR2

K%28

BB%7

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	118	20	6	0	2	14	26	4	4	3	169	279	271	551	102	196	19	10	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	110	26	8	0	3	22	17	4	4	3	236	382	391	773	155	250	12	16	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	53	47	8	2	1	2	3	21	3	0	0	170	264	383	647	213	250	40	6	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	53	45	13	3	2	3	5	13	3	0	0	289	396	644	1.041	356	345	25	9	444	198	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	217	43	9	1	2	12	93	2	1	2	198	247	276	523	78	333	40	5	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	211	51	12	1	3	18	68	2	1	2	242	307	351	658	109	340	29	8	297	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	122	107	9	2	0	1	12	40	1	0	2	84	183	131	314	47	118	33	10	155	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	122	99	12	4	0	1	20	27	1	0	2	121	275	192	467	71	151	22	16	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	TEX	—	120	110	22	4	1	2	8	34	1	2	1	200	261	309	570	109	262	28	7	246	47	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TEX	34%	214	195	39	8	1	3	15	58	2	3	1	200	264	297	562	97	266	27	7	259	56	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	TEX	48%	324	295	62	12	2	6	23	86	3	5	2	210	274	325	600	115	269	27	7	268	63	-14	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.2
2029	24	MLB	TEX	53%	400	364	77	15	2	8	29	105	4	7	2	212	277	330	607	118	271	26	7	273	67	-15	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.4
2030	25	MLB	TEX	55%	443	403	86	17	2	9	32	115	5	8	3	213	280	333	612	119	272	26	7	275	69	-16	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.5
2031	26	MLB	TEX	56%	470	428	91	18	2	10	34	122	5	8	3	213	278	334	612	121	272	26	7	276	69	-16	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2032	27	MLB	TEX	55%	480	436	92	18	2	10	36	125	5	8	3	211	279	330	609	119	271	26	8	276	69	-17	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.6
2027	22	MLB	TEX	34%	74	68	13	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	191	257	279	536	88	268	27	7	253	52	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	TEX	48%	157	143	30	6	1	3	11	42	2	3	1	210	276	329	604	119	271	27	7	262	58	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2029	24	MLB	TEX	53%	211	192	41	8	1	4	15	55	2	4	1	214	278	328	606	115	273	26	7	267	62	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2030	25	MLB	TEX	55%	242	220	47	9	1	5	18	63	2	4	1	214	279	332	611	118	273	26	7	269	64	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2031	26	MLB	TEX	56%	262	238	50	10	1	5	19	68	3	5	2	210	277	324	600	113	273	26	7	270	65	-10	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2032	27	MLB	TEX	55%	264	239	51	10	1	6	20	69	3	5	2	213	282	339	621	126	273	26	8	270	65	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1210	1100	232	46	5	24	88	317	13	22	7	211	277	327	605	116	272	26	7	267	63	-51	+2	+0	+22	+34	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	125	25	3	13	47	170	7	12	4	212	278	330	607	118	273	26	7	267	63	-28	+1	+0	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	2996	2720	549	111	14	55	218	825	35	46	22	202	270	314	583	112	266	28	7	262	59	-140	+0	+0	+54	+85	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	119	24	3	12	47	179	8	10	5	202	270	314	583	112	266	28	7	262	59	-30	+0	+0	+12	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	110	26	8	0	3	22	17	4	4	3	236	382	391	773	155	250	12	16	351	126	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	53	45	13	3	2	3	5	13	3	0	0	289	396	644	1.041	356	345	25	9	444	198	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	211	51	12	1	3	18	68	2	1	2	242	307	351	658	109	340	29	8	297	86	-4	-1	—	—	+7	0.2
2025	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	91	78	10	4	0	1	12	23	1	0	1	128	253	218	471	90	167	25	13	229	34	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	31	21	2	0	0	0	8	4	0	0	1	95	345	95	440		105	13	26	238	41	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,329	26	23	211	273	327	+24	+16	1.0	1.1
	/162	664	13	11	211	273	327	+11.9	+8.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Lopez (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	34→39	43→48	47	193/253/284	91	262	2	2	28%	7%	47	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Luis Valenzuela 2015 · A	21	41	37→45	55→45	39	197/236/272	76	265	4	7	27%	5%	34	-2.8	241/267/333	92	304	5	7	22%	3%	63	-0.9	257/280/358	100	316	5	7	20%	2%	71	-0.1
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→39	39→45	47→45	42	172/250/266	95	272	5	6	36%	8%	41	-2.3	201/268/322	121	279	12	6	31%	7%	63	-0.9	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Henrry Rosario 2014 · A	21	37	38→45	47→45	44	180/249/266	85	257	5	8	30%	8%	40	-2.4	199/253/304	105	256	8	7	24%	6%	50	-1.7	205/253/337	132	255	14	9	25%	5%	57	-0.4
✕Juan Centeno 2011 · A	21	43	37→45	50→40	44	204/257/271	67	265	4	9	24%	6%	44	-2.1	244/285/305	61	305	2	6	20%	5%	63	-0.8	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Ben Rortvedt 2018 · A	20	40	37→45	48→40	43	194/245/264	70	248	5	3	24%	6%	37	-2.7	214/270/309	95	285	8	3	26%	6%	59	-1.1	200/285/311	111	278	12	2	30%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Alvaro Sosa 2007 · A	21	37	37→40	50→45	38	181/228/255	74	270	4	8	34%	6%	27	-3.3	196/241/269	73	261	3	8	25%	5%	37	-2.7	196/241/266	70	251	1	7	21%	5%	32	-0.9
✕Francisco Santana 2008 · A	20	37	38→50	52→55	39	182/227/269	87	246	5	7	28%	5%	30	-3.1	203/247/310	107	265	8	12	26%	5%	50	-1.8	192/231/308	116	248	9	14	26%	5%	40	-0.9
✕Ryan Gold 2019 · A	21	43→36	39→45	48→40	38	208/255/292	84	286	7	5	29%	5%	48	-1.9	195/249/295	100	289	7	4	33%	5%	47	-1.9	176/246/302	126	261	11	1	35%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Marcus Littlewood 2013 · A	21	40	40→45	48→45	41	198/248/289	92	267	8	7	29%	6%	44	-2.1	199/266/305	106	272	10	5	28%	8%	57	-1.2	209/274/322	113	270	10	4	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Rubel Cespedes 2022 · A	21	34→44	39→45	49→40	36	170/224/255	86	263	7	6	37%	6%	26	-3.4	215/264/318	103	309	9	4	32%	6%	59	-1.1	218/267/322	104	302	10	3	30%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Steven Lerud 2006 · A	21	35→41	43→45	47→40	37	180/237/294	114	258	10	5	34%	5%	42	-2.3	190/253/299	109	293	10	4	37%	6%	50	-1.7	199/291/280	82	290	7	2	31%	9%	60	-0.3
✕Shane Mardirosian 2017 · A	21	40→39	36→40	46→45	39	194/238/261	67	262	3	9	26%	4%	33	-2.9	201/254/280	79	291	6	8	31%	6%	45	-2.1	196/265/280	83	301	7	7	35%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	32	-3.0	206/263/288	82	261	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	226/269/325	99	274	9	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2023 · A	21	44	40→50	49→50	43	210/264/306	96	280	6	8	26%	6%	56	-1.3	212/262/343	131	271	15	10	27%	6%	65	-0.7	227/286/389	162	266	21	9	23%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Shane Opitz 2013 · A	21	39	38→40	48→50	39	190/229/268	79	258	4	5	28%	5%	30	-3.1	229/266/303	74	294	4	9	22%	5%	55	-1.4	241/274/306	65	296	3	9	19%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42→41	36→45	47→45	43	198/272/267	70	271	3	8	27%	6%	50	-1.7	197/299/316	119	271	14	6	30%	9%	76	+0.1	174/315/272	98	251	9	3	30%	11%	72	-0.1