Jesus Lopez
C Hickory Crawdads| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROKTEX | 53 | .289/.396/.644 | 3 | 0 | 75 | — | .191/.283/.404 |
| 2024 | 19 | ADown East Woo… | 232 | .242/.307/.351 | 3 | 1 | 47 | — | .199/.251/.278 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKTEX | 122 | .121/.275/.192 | 1 | 0 | -2 | — | .094/.201/.149 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBTEX | 232 | .216/.279/.330 | 4 | 2 | 72 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBTEX | 32 | .221/.285/.347 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBTEX | 77 | .224/.289/.357 | 2 | 1 | 80 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | — | 138 | 110 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 236 | 382 | 391 | 773 | 155 | 250 | 12 | 16 | 351 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 53 | 45 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 396 | 644 | 1.041 | 356 | 345 | 25 | 9 | 444 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 232 | 211 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 68 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 242 | 307 | 351 | 658 | 109 | 340 | 29 | 8 | 297 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 91 | 78 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 128 | 253 | 218 | 471 | 90 | 167 | 25 | 13 | 229 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 31 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 95 | 345 | 95 | 440 | 105 | 13 | 26 | 238 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Blue | — | 138 | 116 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 147 | 272 | 216 | 488 | 69 | 157 | 16 | 12 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 53 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 283 | 404 | 687 | 213 | 256 | 38 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 232 | 216 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 251 | 278 | 529 | 79 | 327 | 39 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 91 | 82 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 98 | 187 | 171 | 358 | 73 | 142 | 35 | 9 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 31 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 83 | 241 | 83 | 325 | 88 | 19 | 16 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Blue | — | 138 | 116 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 147 | 272 | 216 | 488 | 69 | 168 | 16 | 12 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL TEX Blue | — | 138 | 110 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 236 | 382 | 391 | 773 | 155 | 250 | 12 | 16 | 351 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 53 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 283 | 404 | 687 | 213 | 280 | 38 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 53 | 45 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 396 | 644 | 1.041 | 356 | 345 | 25 | 9 | 444 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 232 | 216 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 251 | 278 | 529 | 79 | 328 | 39 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 232 | 211 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 68 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 242 | 307 | 351 | 658 | 109 | 340 | 29 | 8 | 297 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 106 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 94 | 200 | 151 | 351 | 57 | 130 | 31 | 11 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 122 | 99 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 121 | 275 | 192 | 467 | 71 | 151 | 22 | 16 | 231 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Blue | — | 138 | 117 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 145 | 272 | 214 | 486 | 68 | 157 | 16 | 12 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 53 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 283 | 404 | 687 | 213 | 256 | 38 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 232 | 215 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 251 | 279 | 530 | 79 | 327 | 39 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 107 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 93 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 56 | 128 | 31 | 11 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 232 | 215 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 251 | 279 | 530 | 79 | 327 | 39 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 122 | 107 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 93 | 200 | 150 | 350 | 56 | 128 | 31 | 11 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | TEX | 0% | 232 | 212 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 63 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 279 | 330 | 609 | 113 | 284 | 27 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | TEX | 34% | 92 | 84 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 284 | 342 | 627 | 122 | 286 | 27 | 8 | 281 | 77 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | TEX | 46% | 167 | 151 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 288 | 352 | 640 | 129 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | TEX | 52% | 235 | 214 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 291 | 359 | 650 | 133 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | TEX | 54% | 292 | 265 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 76 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 293 | 364 | 656 | 137 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 293 | 85 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | TEX | 54% | 324 | 293 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 84 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 293 | 363 | 656 | 136 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 293 | 85 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | TEX | 54% | 340 | 308 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 89 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 291 | 358 | 649 | 133 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | TEX | 53% | 341 | 309 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 90 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 222 | 288 | 352 | 640 | 130 | 285 | 26 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | TEX | 52% | 336 | 305 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 90 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 219 | 284 | 344 | 629 | 125 | 283 | 27 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -9 | -1 | -2 | +6 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | TEX | 52% | 307 | 279 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 83 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 215 | 279 | 334 | 614 | 119 | 279 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -10 | -1 | -3 | +5 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | TEX | 34% | 32 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 285 | 347 | 632 | 126 | 285 | 28 | 6 | 283 | 77 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | TEX | 46% | 77 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 289 | 357 | 646 | 133 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 289 | 80 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | TEX | 52% | 121 | 110 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 364 | 656 | 138 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | TEX | 54% | 158 | 144 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 294 | 369 | 663 | 141 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 296 | 85 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | TEX | 54% | 176 | 159 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 294 | 369 | 663 | 141 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 296 | 85 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | TEX | 54% | 184 | 166 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 292 | 364 | 656 | 138 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 293 | 83 | -4 | -0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | TEX | 53% | 181 | 163 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 223 | 289 | 357 | 646 | 134 | 284 | 27 | 8 | 289 | 80 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | TEX | 52% | 176 | 160 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 285 | 349 | 634 | 129 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 284 | 77 | -5 | -1 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | TEX | 52% | 160 | 146 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 216 | 280 | 339 | 619 | 123 | 279 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 73 | -5 | -1 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1265 | 1148 | 261 | 47 | 7 | 33 | 95 | 334 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 227 | 293 | 367 | 659 | 139 | 289 | 26 | 8 | 290 | 73 | -29 | -1 | -4 | +23 | +27 | 1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 134 | 24 | 4 | 17 | 49 | 172 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 227 | 293 | 368 | 661 | 141 | 289 | 26 | 8 | 290 | 73 | -15 | -0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3034 | 2743 | 581 | 113 | 16 | 63 | 232 | 828 | 33 | 22 | 19 | 212 | 281 | 334 | 615 | 122 | 277 | 27 | 8 | 275 | 73 | -58 | -1 | -7 | +44 | +54 | 3.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 123 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 177 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 209 | 280 | 327 | 606 | 117 | 274 | 27 | 8 | 275 | 73 | -15 | -0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AHickory Crawdads · 91 PAwOBA .224 → .163 (−61)K% 25.3% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.27% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.19% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 8.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.123 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .224 → .163; ISO .090 → .063; BABIP .167 → .142. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Rangers · 31 PAwOBA .251 → .175 (−76)K% 12.9% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.90% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.81% | ÷1.016 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 15.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 9.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.302 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .175; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .105 → .088. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 232 PAwOBA .291 → .237 (−54)K% 29.3% → 39.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.31% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.76% | ÷0.983 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.48% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.045 | 24.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.39% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.045 | 7.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×1.045 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.10% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .291 → .237; ISO .109 → .083; BABIP .340 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Rangers · 53 PAwOBA .432 → .279 (−153)K% 24.5% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.53% | ÷0.940 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷0.973 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.66% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.62% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 13.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.032 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.114 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.124 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 6.65% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 123, K 88, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .432 → .279; ISO .356 → .214; BABIP .345 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL TEX Blue · 138 PAwOBA .347 → .228 (−119)K% 12.3% → 15.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.32% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.94% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.90% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 10.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.60% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 4.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.148 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.35% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .347 → .228; ISO .155 → .080; BABIP .250 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).