Jesus Lopez — OGILVIE

Jesus LopezC Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 180 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .254 / .285

PA10

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	110	26	8	0	3	22	17	4	4	3	236	382	391	773	155	250	12	16	351	123	+4	-0	—	—	+3	0.7
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	53	45	13	3	2	3	5	13	3	0	0	289	396	644	1.041	356	345	25	9	444	187	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	211	51	12	1	3	18	68	2	1	2	242	307	351	658	109	340	29	8	297	87	-3	-1	—	—	+5	0.1
2025	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	91	78	10	4	0	1	12	23	1	0	1	128	253	218	471	90	167	25	13	229	41	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	31	21	2	0	0	0	8	4	0	0	1	95	345	95	440		105	13	26	238	48	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	118	20	6	0	2	14	25	4	4	3	169	279	271	551	102	187	18	10	247	53	-8	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	53	47	9	2	1	2	3	20	3	0	0	191	283	404	687	213	250	38	6	274	72	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	217	41	9	1	2	12	94	2	1	2	189	238	267	505	78	317	41	5	224	38	-17	-1	—	—	+5	-1.3
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	91	83	8	3	0	1	7	33	1	0	1	96	176	169	344	72	140	36	8	155	-9	-12	-0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	31	24	2	0	0	0	5	6	0	0	1	83	241	83	325		89	19	16	176	5	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	118	20	6	0	2	14	25	4	4	3	169	279	271	551	102	194	18	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	110	26	8	0	3	22	17	4	4	3	236	382	391	773	155	250	12	16	351	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	53	47	9	2	1	2	3	20	3	0	0	191	283	404	687	213	280	38	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	—	53	45	13	3	2	3	5	13	3	0	0	289	396	644	1.041	356	345	25	9	444	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	217	41	9	1	2	12	94	2	1	2	189	238	267	505	78	320	41	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	211	51	12	1	3	18	68	2	1	2	242	307	351	658	109	340	29	8	297	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	122	107	10	3	0	1	12	39	1	0	2	93	192	150	341	56	130	32	10	160	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	122	99	12	4	0	1	20	27	1	0	2	121	275	192	467	71	151	22	16	231	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	138	119	20	6	0	2	14	25	4	4	3	168	279	269	548	101	187	18	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	53	47	9	2	1	2	3	20	3	0	0	191	283	404	687	213	250	38	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	216	41	9	1	2	12	94	2	1	2	190	238	269	507	79	317	41	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	122	108	10	3	0	1	12	39	1	0	2	93	192	148	340	56	127	32	10	160	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	53	47	9	2	1	2	3	20	3	0	0	191	283	404	687	213	250	38	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	232	216	41	9	1	2	12	94	2	1	2	190	238	269	507	79	317	41	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	122	108	10	3	0	1	12	39	1	0	2	93	192	148	340	56	127	32	10	160	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		262	30	10	247	53	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	214	195	39	8	1	3	15	58	2	3	1	200	264	297	562	97	266	27	7	260	62	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	324	295	62	12	2	6	23	86	3	5	2	210	274	325	600	115	269	27	7	268	68	-12	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	400	364	77	15	2	8	29	104	4	7	2	212	277	330	607	118	271	26	7	274	71	-14	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	443	403	86	17	2	9	32	115	5	8	3	213	280	333	612	119	271	26	7	276	73	-14	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	470	427	91	18	2	10	35	122	5	8	3	213	281	335	615	122	271	26	7	276	73	-15	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	480	436	92	18	2	10	36	124	5	8	3	211	279	330	609	119	271	26	8	277	73	-15	+0	+0	+9	+10	0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	483	439	92	18	2	10	36	126	5	8	3	210	277	328	605	118	270	26	7	276	73	-16	+0	-1	+9	+10	0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	477	433	91	18	2	10	36	125	5	8	3	210	278	330	609	120	270	26	8	274	71	-16	+0	-1	+9	+10	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	470	426	88	17	2	9	36	125	5	8	3	207	276	319	595	113	268	27	8	271	69	-17	+0	-2	+8	+10	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	74	68	13	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	191	257	279	536	88	268	27	7	256	62	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	157	143	30	6	1	3	11	41	2	3	1	210	276	329	604	119	271	26	7	265	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	211	192	41	8	1	5	15	55	2	4	1	214	278	344	621	130	273	26	7	270	71	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	242	220	47	9	1	5	18	63	2	4	1	214	279	332	611	118	274	26	7	273	73	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	262	238	51	10	1	6	19	68	3	5	2	214	281	340	621	126	273	26	7	273	73	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	264	239	51	10	1	6	20	68	3	5	2	213	282	339	621	126	273	26	8	273	73	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	264	239	51	10	1	6	20	69	3	5	2	213	282	339	621	126	273	26	8	272	73	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	254	230	48	9	1	5	19	67	3	4	1	209	278	322	600	113	272	26	7	270	71	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	247	224	47	9	1	5	19	65	2	4	1	210	278	326	603	116	270	26	8	267	69	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1975	1793	379	74	8	42	146	516	21	35	11	211	279	332	610	120	271	26	7	270	67	-67	+3	-2	+35	+43	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	125	24	3	14	48	170	7	12	4	212	279	334	613	122	271	26	7	270	67	-22	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4316	3916	799	161	19	82	320	1166	49	68	30	204	273	318	590	114	267	27	7	267	67	-130	+3	-4	+67	+82	1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	120	24	3	12	48	176	7	10	5	203	271	315	586	112	267	27	7	267	67	-22	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.2	2,095	41	35	211	274	328	+37	+24	2.4	2.4
/162	664	13	11	+11.9	+7.6	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Lopez (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	34→39	43→48	47	193/254/285	92	262	2	2	28%	7%	53	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Juan Centeno 2011 · A	21	43	37→45	50→40	44	204/258/272	67	266	4	9	24%	6%	51	-2.3	249/290/311	62	308	2	6	19%	5%	71	-0.8	268/305/322	54	324	1	3	17%	4%	76	-0.2
✕Henrry Rosario 2014 · A	21	37	38→45	47→45	44	180/249/266	85	257	5	8	30%	8%	47	-2.6	199/253/304	105	256	8	7	24%	6%	56	-1.9	205/253/337	132	255	14	9	25%	5%	63	-0.5
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42→41	36→45	47→45	43	198/272/267	70	271	3	8	27%	6%	56	-1.9	199/300/314	115	273	13	6	30%	9%	79	-0.2	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Alvaro Sosa 2007 · A	21	37	37→40	50→45	38	181/228/255	74	270	4	8	34%	6%	36	-3.4	196/241/269	73	261	3	8	25%	5%	44	-2.8	196/241/266	70	251	1	7	21%	5%	40	-0.9
✕Ben Rortvedt 2019 · A	21	44	39→45	49→40	42	212/262/296	84	275	6	3	25%	6%	58	-1.7	212/271/317	105	283	10	3	27%	6%	67	-1.1	199/285/301	102	280	11	2	31%	10%	67	-0.4
✕Shane Opitz 2013 · A	21	40	38→40	48→50	40	196/237/276	80	262	4	5	26%	5%	43	-2.8	233/271/309	76	297	4	9	22%	5%	63	-1.4	245/279/314	69	299	3	9	18%	4%	64	-0.6
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	38→32	43→45	51→50	42	190/258/298	108	281	10	12	34%	8%	57	-1.8	205/269/314	109	303	11	12	34%	7%	65	-1.2	180/254/288	108	265	12	11	34%	8%	53	-1.2
✕Marcus Littlewood 2013 · A	21	40	40→45	48→45	41	198/249/288	90	271	8	7	29%	6%	51	-2.2	198/267/305	107	269	9	5	28%	8%	62	-1.4	204/271/311	107	262	9	4	25%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	50	-2.3	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	47	-2.5	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	20	-1.5
✕Ryan Gold 2019 · A	21	44→36	39→45	48→40	38	211/257/296	85	289	7	5	29%	5%	56	-1.9	195/249/297	102	283	7	4	32%	5%	53	-2.1	175/243/299	123	254	11	1	34%	6%	50	-1.2
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	40	-3.1	206/263/285	79	260	5	4	22%	6%	56	-1.9	227/270/319	92	275	7	1	19%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Steven Lerud 2006 · A	21	35→42	43→45	47→40	37	180/237/294	114	258	10	5	34%	5%	49	-2.4	190/253/299	109	292	10	4	37%	6%	56	-1.9	201/292/278	77	290	6	2	29%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Daury Arias 2023 · A	21	39→38	44→40	46→45	50	197/285/309	112	247	11	8	24%	9%	71	-0.8	183/263/266	83	270	7	9	32%	9%	53	-2.1	162/246/233	72	244	6	9	33%	9%	36	-1.7
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	53	-2.1	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	56	-1.9	213/303/311	98	271	7	8	22%	10%	78	-0.3	194/297/306	112	259	11	6	27%	12%	72	-0.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→45	49→55	47	200/278/275	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	60	-1.6	192/289/299	107	272	9	9	30%	11%	70	-0.8	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Shane Mardirosian 2017 · A	21	41→40	36→40	46→45	39	196/242/264	68	264	3	9	26%	4%	42	-2.9	202/255/282	80	292	6	8	31%	6%	52	-2.2	196/264/280	84	299	7	7	34%	7%	55	-0.6
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps