Jesus Lopez

C Hickory Crawdads
Age 22 L/R 6'1" / 180 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#954ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202318ROKTEX53.289/.396/.6443075—.191/.283/.404
202419ADown East Woo…232.242/.307/.3513147—.199/.251/.278
202520A/ROKTEX122.121/.275/.19210-2—.094/.201/.149
2027PROJMLE22MLBTEX232.216/.279/.33042720.1
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBTEX32.221/.285/.34710770.0
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBTEX77.224/.289/.35721800.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A
BB%65
ISO52
Z-Con%45
K%40
Whiff%33
Chase%24
CompsDarrien Miller (age 23) · Johnny Monell (age 22) · Zach Fisher (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj PA
wRC+†72
AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .277 / .327
PA55
HR1
K%27
BB%7
ISO113
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.30.40.40.30.20.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2035Arb-1$0.6M———
2036Arb-2$5M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL TEX Blue — 138110 26803 22174 43 236382391773 155250 1216 351 40 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL Rangers — 5345 13323 5133 00 2893966441.041 356345 259 444 75 — — — — — —
202419 ADown East Wood Ducks — 232211 511213 18682 12 242307351658 109340 298 297 47 — — — — — —
202520 AHickory Crawdads — 9178 10401 12231 01 128253218471 90167 2513 229 -4 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL Rangers — 3121 2000 840 01 9534595440 105 1326 238 5 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL TEX Blue — 138116 17501 16224 43 147272216488 69157 1612 228 40 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 5347 9212 3203 00 191283404687 213256 386 279 75 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDown East Wood Ducks — 232216 43912 13902 12 199251278529 79327 396 237 47 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEHickory Crawdads — 9182 8301 8321 01 98187171358 73142 359 163 -4 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 3124 2000 560 01 8324183325 88 1916 175 5 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL TEX Blue — 138116 17501 16224 43 147272216488 69168 1612 228 40 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL TEX Blue — 138110 26803 22174 43 236382391773 155250 1216 351 40 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 5347 9212 3203 00 191283404687 213280 386 279 75 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWACL Rangers — 5345 13323 5133 00 2893966441.041 356345 259 444 75 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDown East Wood Ducks — 232216 43912 13902 12 199251278529 79328 396 237 47 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWDown East Wood Ducks — 232211 511213 18682 12 242307351658 109340 298 297 47 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 122106 10301 13381 02 94200151351 57130 3111 166 -1 — — — — — —
202520 A RAW2 teams — 12299 12401 20271 02 121275192467 71151 2216 231 -1 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL TEX Blue — 138117 17501 16224 43 145272214486 68157 1612 228 40 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 5347 9212 3203 00 191283404687 213256 386 279 75 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEDown East Wood Ducks — 232215 43912 13902 12 200251279530 79327 396 237 47 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 122107 10301 13381 02 93200150350 56128 3111 166 -1 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLEDown East Wood Ducks — 232215 43912 13902 12 200251279530 79327 396 237 47 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 122107 10301 13381 02 93200150350 56128 3111 166 -1 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLETEX 0% 232212 45914 16632 21 216279330609 113284 277 274 72 -8 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLETEX 34% 9284 19312 7251 10 220284342627 122286 278 281 77 -3 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.1
202924 MLB MLETEX 46% 167151 34614 12442 10 224288352640 129287 267 287 80 -4 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203025 MLB MLETEX 52% 235214 48916 17622 21 226291359650 133287 267 291 83 -5 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.5
203126 MLB MLETEX 54% 292265 601127 22763 21 227293364656 137287 268 293 85 -5 +0 +0 +5 +6 0.6
203227 MLB MLETEX 54% 324293 671328 25843 21 227293363656 136287 268 293 85 -6 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.7
203328 MLB MLETEX 54% 340308 691328 26893 21 225291358649 133286 268 291 83 -7 +0 -1 +6 +7 0.6
203429 MLB MLETEX 53% 341309 691328 26903 22 222288352640 130285 268 287 80 -8 -0 -1 +6 +7 0.4
203530 MLB MLETEX 52% 336305 671327 25903 23 219284344629 125283 277 282 77 -9 -1 -2 +6 +7 0.1
203631 MLB MLETEX 52% 307279 591116 23832 23 215279334614 119279 277 276 73 -10 -1 -3 +5 +7 -0.1
202823 MLB CTXTEX 34% 3230 6101 290 00 221285347632 126285 286 283 77 -1 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202924 MLB CTXTEX 46% 7770 16302 6201 10 224289357646 133286 268 289 80 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
203025 MLB CTXTEX 52% 121110 25413 9321 10 227292364656 138287 267 293 83 -2 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.3
203126 MLB CTXTEX 54% 158144 33614 12411 10 228294369663 141287 268 296 85 -3 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.4
203227 MLB CTXTEX 54% 176159 37715 13462 10 228294369663 141287 267 296 85 -3 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.4
203328 MLB CTXTEX 54% 184166 38715 14482 11 226292364656 138286 268 293 83 -4 -0 -0 +3 +4 0.3
203429 MLB CTXTEX 53% 181163 38715 14482 11 223289357646 134284 278 289 80 -4 -0 -1 +3 +4 0.2
203530 MLB CTXTEX 52% 176160 35614 13471 12 220285349634 129282 277 284 77 -5 -1 -1 +3 +4 0.0
203631 MLB CTXTEX 52% 160146 33614 12431 12 216280339619 123279 278 278 73 -5 -1 -1 +3 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 12651148 26147733 9533411 86 227293367659 139289 268 290 73 -29 -1 -4 +23 +27 1.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650590 13424417 491726 43 227293368661 141289 268 290 73 -15 -0 -2 +12 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 30342743 5811131663 23282833 2219 212281334615 122277 278 275 73 -58 -1 -7 +44 +54 3.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650588 12324313 501777 54 209280327606 117274 278 275 73 -15 -0 -2 +12 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 91 PAwOBA .224 → .163 (−61)K% 25.3% → 35.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.27%÷0.981×1.360——35.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.19%÷1.051×0.690—×1.0308.92%
HBP% /PA1.10%—×0.780—×1.0300.88%
Singles /BIP9.09%÷1.002×0.920×0.988×1.0308.49%
Doubles /BIP7.27%÷1.123×0.830×0.988×1.0305.47%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.039×0.910×0.988×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP1.82%÷1.037×0.800—×1.0301.45%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .224 → .163; ISO .090 → .063; BABIP .167 → .142. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 31 PAwOBA .251 → .175 (−76)K% 12.9% → 18.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.90%÷0.981×1.440——18.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.81%÷1.016×0.620—×0.99515.67%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP11.76%÷0.991×0.820—×0.9959.68%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.017×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.138×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.302×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .251 → .175; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .105 → .088. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 232 PAwOBA .291 → .237 (−54)K% 29.3% → 39.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.31%÷1.022×1.360——39.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.76%÷0.983×0.690—×1.0455.69%
HBP% /PA0.86%—×0.780—×1.0450.70%
Singles /BIP24.48%÷0.973×0.920×1.004×1.04524.28%
Doubles /BIP8.39%÷0.978×0.830×1.004×1.0457.48%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.150×0.910×1.004×1.0450.58%
Home runs /BIP2.10%÷1.008×0.800—×1.0451.74%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .291 → .237; ISO .109 → .083; BABIP .340 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rangers · 53 PAwOBA .432 → .279 (−153)K% 24.5% → 37.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.53%÷0.940×1.440——37.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.43%÷0.973×0.620—×1.0226.14%
HBP% /PA5.66%—×0.720—×1.0224.17%
Singles /BIP15.62%÷1.003×0.820—×1.02213.06%
Doubles /BIP9.38%÷1.032×0.720—×1.0226.69%
Triples /BIP6.25%÷1.114×0.720—×1.0224.13%
Home runs /BIP9.38%÷1.124×0.780—×1.0226.65%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 123, K 88, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .432 → .279; ISO .356 → .214; BABIP .345 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL TEX Blue · 138 PAwOBA .347 → .228 (−119)K% 12.3% → 15.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.32%÷0.964×1.220——15.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.94%÷0.998×0.700—×1.02211.44%
HBP% /PA2.90%—×0.700—×1.0222.07%
Singles /BIP16.13%÷0.982×0.680×0.950×1.02210.85%
Doubles /BIP8.60%÷1.007×0.600×0.950×1.0224.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.006×0.600×0.950×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP3.23%÷1.148×0.470—×1.0221.35%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .228; ISO .155 → .080; BABIP .250 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).