Ben Brutti
P
Daytona Tortugas
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 203 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%10.0%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 11 | 6 | 30 | 134 | 39 | 18 | 0 | 19.6% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 4.55 | 3.47 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 23 | 14 | 80 | 354 | 77 | 43 | 5 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 1.7% | 3.38 | 4.51 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 22 | 0 | 40 | 188 | 47 | 27 | 3 | 17.6% | 18.0% | 1.7% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 36 | 19 | 5 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 20 | 149 | 676 | 116 | 106 | 9 | 17.2% | 15.7% | 1.4% | 3.98 | 4.39 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 27 | 200 | 905 | 155 | 142 | 12 | 17.2% | 15.7% | 1.4% | 3.98 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Brutti (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.38 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 122 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 95 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 92 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 91 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 91 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 91 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 91 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 90 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 90 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 90 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 90 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 89 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.77 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.50 | 3.27 | 155 | 89 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 89 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.64 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .246 | 3.81 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 169 | +0.17 | 2.90 | 215 | 89 |
| Zac Ryan R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .233 | 3.93 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.07 | 3.84 | 184 | 89 |
| Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $5M | +$1M | ||