Sam Bower — OGILVIE

Sam Bower P San Jose Giants

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 217 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%21.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	4	53	232	55	18	6	17%	2.3	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	3.3%	5.40	4.61	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	4	53	232	55	18	6	17%	2.3	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	3.3%	5.40	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	SF	19	4	49	203	52	16	5	21%	2.6	25.6%	7.9%	17.7%	2.5%	4.62	3.29	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	SF	4	0	5	29	3	2	1	0%	1.2	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	3.4%	13.50	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	50	0	52	220	49	20	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	49	0	51	217	48	20	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	3.1%	4.43	4.45	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	21	0	22	93	21	8	3	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	32	135	30	12	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	3.1%	4.43	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	230	51	21	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.2%	13.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.05	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	77	26	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.2%	13.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		23	4	53	232	41	21	8	17%	2.3	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	3.3%	5.40	4.61	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	15	200	870	153	79	29	17%	2.3	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	3.3%	5.40	4.61	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Bower (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	21.8%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.43	22.2%	13.1%	104	-0.02	—	—	—
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	84
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	82
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	82
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	81
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	81
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	81
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	81
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	80
Brad Bass R 2021 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	247	80
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	80
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	80
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	80
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	79
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	79
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	79
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	22.1%	9.2%	1.17	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58